Friday, February 21, 2014

A Brief Nuclear Update



Here is a brief update on what’s going on in the nuclear energy world.



The Obama administration has finally authorized the guaranteed loan bailout for building the two new Vogle reactors in Georgia.  Construction is already behind schedule and over budget.  Again, I say, if these reactors ever do come on line, the electricity they will produce will have to be subsidized by the taxpayers, just like the construction costs.



There are huge rumors about multiple nuke plant closures in the next couple of years, due to age, cost of upgrades and maintenance, and the biggest issue…their inability to economically compete with natural gas and renewables.  The exponential growth of renewables is leading to rapid deployment of thousands of megawatts of capacity in a very short space of time, and at decreasing costs.  The private sector and Wall Street are beginning to understand that here is an investment potential that is guaranteed to make money.  In the upcoming year or two, major changes will be made in how utilities set their rates for energy generation and their costs of transmission and distribution, and this will open the door to even more investment.  Very complex stuff!





On the back end of nuclear power, Fukushima continues to bewilder the industry, with new leaks of radioactive water announced just this week.  In spite of “global” help, they are still unable to come up with any methodology or technology to clean up the mess.  Current estimates are 50 years and $130 billion.  Lots of wiggle room!



In the US, a major blow to repository storage comes from the pilot plant in New Mexico, where contaminated military waste is supposedly being stored, monitored, and evaluated in the salt formation geology.  An unknown leak has released traces of plutonium up at the surface of this facility.  So much for that process of containing even more radioactive wastes for 10,000 years!



The fuel fabrication plant in South Carolina, which is supposed to convert nuclear warheads into MOX fuel, has jumped from $4 billion already spent, to over $30 billion, and years behind schedule.  Then there is the cost of retrofitting reactors to accept this type of fuel.  The hope of new small modular reactors, thorium fueled reactors, and of course, the endless supply of fusion power continue to be “holy grail” concepts that are decades away from any real commercial applications, and will ultimately be completely unaffordable.



The world is slowly begin to recognize the huge costs of nuclear wastes, with the UK estimating the decommission and cleanup of their Sellafield site at over $130 billion, Germany beginning to estimate $35 billion to cleanup their nuclear program, and Japan having no clue as to how much it will cost to eliminate their nuclear plants.  Taiwan has recently tied the opening of two new units to a complete plan as to where their wastes will go.



Interesting times, as we plod along, and keep adding new wind, solar, and other renewables to our energy mix.  Think of what we could do if the Koch brothers were in the renewable business!
















Thursday, January 23, 2014

CURRENT THOUGHTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE



A recent article in the climate debate tells us a lot.
If you actually read the article, and try to understand what it is saying, it summarizes a major point of contention between believers and deniers.
Has there has been no significant increase in temperature between 1998 and 2012?…a very complex number, based on how/where readings are taken and analyzed…surface temperature, atmospheric, ocean, polar, equator, northern-southern hemisphere…many measurement yielding a single number. 
1998 was chosen as a base-line because it was regarded as the hottest year on record.  Since the subsequent years were not hotter, the argument is that we have peaked, and things are cooling off.  Published next week, it is expected to address the fact that 1998 was the hottest year on record and world temperatures have not yet exceeded it, which scientists have so far struggled to explain.” 
One such explanation is that because of the melting polar ice caps over the last several decades…a commercial ship made it through the Northwest Passage by itself earlier in the year…the freshwater influx into the ocean has altered the dynamic of heat transfer, so the oceans have absorbed more heat than before, altering the surface global temperature readings.  “Germany called for the references to the slowdown in warming to be deleted, saying looking at a time span of just 10 or 15 years was ‘misleading’ and they should focus on decades or centuries.” 
Hence my reference…the argument now is moot.
2013 was hotter than 1998…that 14 year “cooling” trend was just a down blip in a long range, many year graph of increasing temperature data.  The report is expected to say the rate of warming between 1998 and 2012 was about half of the average rate since 1951 – and put this down to natural variations such as the El Nino and La Nina ocean cycles and the cooling effects of volcanoes.”  There is so much we do know, and so much more we do not know…the bottom line is that the earth is warming, the vast majority of scientists agree that fossil CO2 plays a large part in that, and that the impacts on climate worldwide will continue to be felt with more changes in weather patterns, more extremes in rain, snow, heat, cold, drought, flooding, sea rise, ecological succession, etc.
Why is there now a drought in California.  Here in the redwoods, we’re at 26% normal rainfall.  Meteorologists can show us satellite images of the “Polar Vortex” pushing cold moist air over the north towards the east coast, when it should be dropping moisture of the west coast.  Why?  El Nino, El Nina…all driven by ocean temperature differentials between the tropic and the polar regions…very complex stuff.  Meanwhile, California is about to ration water, farmers are worried about their crops, the wine industry is concerned about what low water will do to the years vintage; and elsewhere Australia is burning up, Canada announced that last year insurers paid out close to $3 billion for weather related damages, and the rest of the world struggles with flooding, drought, and other weather events.
Again, this is very complex and serious stuff, so I ask the question: “what if human CO2 is responsible for even more extremes in the future?”  We would have wasted a lot of time and a lot of money not making the inevitable transition to a lower carbon energy society when we had the time and money to do so.

This is a scientific dilemma, a political, economic, social and moral one as well.

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

A Welcome to 2014



I want to wish you all a very Happy New Year, and I am so optimistic about the major changes that will occur in 2014.

First, on the nuclear side…it is dead, although its tail is still waggin’.  We will finally begin to see the outrageous true costs of decommissioning and waste disposal as more plants are shut down, and the public begins to finally realize what is in store for them and their kids.  As we face those serious economic issues, more countries will also open their eyes and rethink their energy options.

Secondly, the growth of renewables will grow exponentially.  They are now so cost effective, that they are creating problems of overcapacity and loss of utilities control.  In spite of the billions spent by the “powers that be,” we will begin to address the restructuring of utilities and rates, and start to make major changes to our so out-dated grid system.  We will see breakthrough efforts in energy storage, and a whole new economic model of financing the upfront costs of all these technologies.  The ultimate “gold ring” is that the fuel is free, and its cost will not fluctuate as with other fuels; and of course this goes against every fiscal conservative economic model that we have lived with in the past.  And the price of fossil fuels will rise, as we begin to seriously adopt measures such as a carbon tax, and other climate change actions.

2014 will be a landmark year in politics, economics, energy policy, and I hope in other key social issues as well.

Happy Sunny and Windy New Year!!!!!!!!!

Friday, December 6, 2013

Beginning to Understand the TRUE Costs of Nuclear Power



Last month two major court decisions were handed down that have significant impact on the overall economics of nuclear power.  Unfortunately, this was not picked up by the mainstream news media, nor has it been fully vetted by the anti-nuclear community.



Here is some background, beginning with the 1982 Nuclear Policy Act signed by Ronald Reagan.  It said that beginning in 1998, the Federal Government (DOE) would take possession and responsibility for all high-level spent fuel from commercial nuclear power plants, and will place it in a permanent geologic repository.  Also, the utilities would contribute 1 mil ($0.001) per kilowatt/hour of nuclear generated electricity into the Nuclear Waste Fund, to pay for the building and operation of the repository.  To date, about $30 billion has been collected from nuclear utility customers for the fund.



Yucca Mountain was chosen in 1988 as the preferred site, and work began characterizing the mountain.  The law said that the geology alone should provide the isolation of the spent fuel from the environment for a minimum of 10,000 years.  In the mid-90’s, it was determined that the natural environmental conditions in the repository would interact with the heat and radiation from the fuel, and would destabilize the integrity of the storage canisters.  The repository design was then modified to allow the placement of some sort of metal “drip shields” to protect the canisters.  That was the first major problem…a metal that would avoid corrosion for 10,000 years?  After 20 years of scientific study, and about $14 billion from the fund, the inevitable “uncertainty” of Yucca Mountain to meet the isolation requirement came to light (NRC Chairwoman Alison MacFalane’s “Uncertainty Underground”), and after much legal and scientific jostling between DOE, EPA, NRC, and the state of Nevada, work was halted in 2006, and finally abandoned by President Obama in 2009.  The ultimate question of whether Yucca Mountain can serve as our repository, or whether there is anyplace else where we can technologically isolate hot, radioactive material for tens of thousands of years must be answered by science, technology,  and social morality, and not by politics.



So, what were the two court decisions?  The first dealt with DOE’s responsibility for spent fuel after the 1998 deadline was not met.  It is costing utilities somewhere between $10-15 million per year to store and safeguard the high-level waste, whether it is pools or dry cask storage.  Utilities have sued DOE saying that they should be reimbursed for this cost, since by law, DOE owns the fuel and should take care of it.  In several cases over the years, the courts have agreed.  Last month they granted Maine Yankee $35.7 million in addition to $81.7 million granted earlier in the year, for storage fees (total $117.4 million) from 1998 to 2008.  A third claim is in for 2009-12, and more claims later for 2013 to ????? “Two other New England power plants – Connecticut Yankee Atomic Power Co. and Yankee Atomic Electric Co. of Rowe, Mass. – also were awarded damages this week in the amounts of $126.3 million and $73.3 million, respectively.”   More utilities are expected to follow suit. In other words, the taxpayers are going to pay these costs and not the ratepayers who benefited from the cheap nuclear generated electricity.(1)(2)



There are major points to be gleaned from these decisions.  First, 104 nuclear power plants in the US…storage costs of $10 million/year/each…1998 to 2013…$15 billion+/- owed to the utilities by the US taxpayers????  What about 2014 to ????  We will eventually have to move all the fuel rods into dry cask storage…6000 casks at $10 million each to construct and load.  Another $60 billion????

A repository, even if we started now, wouldn’t be ready for at least another twenty years (nuclear industry best “estimate”.)  Nuclear power was supposed to be cheap, and pay for itself.  Not true!  So we have a 20 year old living in Oregon, and lucky enough to have a job, a 45 year old living in Idaho, and all the rest of the 100% Americans paying taxes that are going to pay for the storage of spent nuclear fuel at the long gone Trojan Nuclear Power Plant in Oregon, shuttered in 1993, which produced “cheap” electricity for a few, for only 15 years.  Fair??? You’d think the fiscal conservatives would be all over this.  A tax, by any other name, is still a tax. Somebody has to pay. The argument that tax dollars shouldn’t be used to help pay for health insurance or social security falls very short when in actuality, tax dollars are being used to pay the nuclear industry’s bad investments and debts.



The second court decision handed yet another economic blow to the US taxpayer.  The Nuclear Waste fund was collecting some $750 million per year earmarked for permanent storage in a repository.  Out of the $30 billion collected so far (including interest earned), about half has already been spent on a dry hole (Yucca Mountain.)  The US Court of Appeals just ruled that DOE should stop collecting that fee.  “The appeals court panel said the Energy Department failed to come up with an adequate evaluation for the waste fee…the agency’s assessment of disposal costs was “so large as to be absolutely useless to be used as an analytic technique”… Judge Silberman wrote in the seven-page decision that the department’s presentation reminded the court of a line from the musical “Chicago,” which says, “Give them the old razzle dazzle.” (3)(4) 



The fact of the matter here is that the remaining $15 billion in the fund is a mere pittance in what it will/would cost to develop a repository.  When Yucca Mountain was cancelled, the nuclear industry “estimate” for construction and operation beginning in 2030 was $95 billion.  What’s that cost going to be 30, 40, ??? years from now.  Again, the US taxpayer will be held responsible to pay the nuclear bill.  The Baby Boomers and those alive over the past 40 years have benefited from “cheap” nuclear electricity, only because they have deferred the true costs onto many, many generations of taxpayers in the future. 



What will the final price of spent fuel management be over the next 50…100 years?  $200 billion?  $500 billion?  Add to this the cost of decommissioning the 100 reactors ($2 billion + each  at today’s estimates) and the cost of cleaning up all the other components of the nuclear industry (uranium mine tailings, enrichment plants, fuel fabrication plants, etc, etc,) and we’re looking at a trillion dollars or more.  This is the “back-end” costs that very few people really understand, or are talking about.  The industry is too busy wanting to build even more plants, and pushing the continued lie that nuclear power is cheap, safe, clean, and our only energy salvation.



Once again, we’ve been had, and by the very same people who stand up and spout out that this type of “socialist” thing is fiscally unacceptable, and not fair to our children and grandchildren.  Money turns a blind eye!  Open your eyes and follow it. This whole waste issue is just beginning to come to light.  It will be interesting to see how the industry justifies its position.



  1. http://www.kjonline.com/news/Court_orders__235M_payment_for_nuclear_waste_storage.html



  1. http://www.boston.com/news/local/maine/2013/11/15/court-orders-payment-for-nuke-waste-storage/wpoLINQZR0ZzklYARmp5iM/story.html





  1. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/nuclear-power-s-750-million-reprieve-doesn-t-end-dilemma.html



  1. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/nuclear-power-s-750-million-reprieve-doesn-t-end-dilemma.html




















Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Beating a Dead Horse



I hate to keep harping on this, but my frustration with the “fiscal conservatives” is so overwhelming and unimaginable.  They just keep beating a dead horse’s ass because of their greed and ignorance in maintaining an obviously very expensive and unsustainable energy system.  It just goes against their basic principles.  Here is just the top of one pile in Canada…and the same is happening here in the US, in Britain, and soon in the rest of the world.  A 30% rate increase to “include ensuring obligations for used nuclear fuel management and decommissioning costs are met.”  The days of cheap nuclear energy were over a long time ago. The horse died, but we’re still grooming it, keeping the stalls clean, and trying to figure out what to do with the body and the pile of manure.



At the other end of the horse, we now have a new economic battle taking form.  Arizona, one of the sunniest areas of the country, with a huge peak demand for electricity, and millions of rooftops gathering sunshine, is fighting the implementation of solar energy---NOT because solar is too expensive, since thousands of homeowners are investing in their own systems, but because it impacts the economics of the local utilities.  Rather than praise the economic virtues of solar and shift their thinking and resources into implementing all the advantages that renewables offer, they are mouthing the Koch brothers greedy lies (they just rejoined ALEC) and keeping Arizona and the rest of the nation from moving forward into the inevitable renewable, sustainable energy future.



I’m not a Tea Party supporter, but you’ve got to give them credit for doing the right thing, even if it’s for the wrong reason.


So the bottom line today is that solar is NOT too expensive, and its price continues to come DOWN.  It is now cost competitive, affordable, and in the hands of the people.  The powers that be don’t like that.  Too much personal freedom; less centralized regulatory control; least cost alternative.  Isn’t that the mantra of a Republican fiscal conservative?

It’s getting warmer out there…!!!!!


Thursday, November 7, 2013

Phase One of Cleaning Up Fukushima





Almost three years after the accidents, TEPCO is about to begin the dangerous and arduous task of removing spent fuel rods from the storage pool at Unit #4.  This reactor was not running when the earthquake/tsunami hit, but hydrogen explosions severely damaged the spent fuel pool and its surrounding buildings.  This is just one of the areas where water has had to be continually pumped in to keep the rods cool and shielded, yielding massive amounts of contaminated water to be dealt with.



The plan is to use a makeshift crane to individually lift the 1500+ fuel assemblies and place them in a heavily shielded cask.  All this needs to happen underwater, and in a heavily damaged building.  The cask, which can hold about 20 assemblies, will be sealed, and then transported “somewhere” away from the nuclear site where the process will be reversed.  The cask will be placed underwater in a new pool, and the fuel assemblies will be removed and re-racked in the new storage area.  The cask will be returned to Unit #$ and the process will begin again.  This is expected to take about two years to complete.



Why TEPCO is not putting the fuel assemblies directly into dry casks for storage is anybody’s guess.  That technology appears to be a US initiative, and Japan probably does not have the technical resources to do it.  Here at Humboldt Bay, we built a storage bunker for six casks.  The spent fuel was loaded directly into the casks (underwater), and then transported a few hundred yards to the bunker.  The advantage of this process is that the fuel does not have to be water-cooled, so you do not have “leakage” problems.  And once a repository is available, you don’t have to re-load the fuel into new transportation casks.  Fukushima will be handling that fuel at least three times in its long life.



I would imagine that cost has a lot to do with this decision.  Here in the US, the casks cost about $2 million each, and all the associated loading and handling brings that total to about $10 million each.  Fukushima would need about 30 casks…total project cost could be $300 million.  Their thinking might be that it is probably cheaper to “kick the can down the road” and put this stuff in a swimming pool, maintain it and hope it doesn’t leak, and let future generations deal with all this later. After the fuel is removed, Unit #4 can be decommissioned.  Since the reactor was not damaged, the decommissioning costs would probably be around $1-2-? billion.



This is the least of TEPCO’s problems.  Units #1,2, & 3 have melted fuel inside their reactors, as well as spent fuel assemblies in their spent fuel pools.  How all this will be handled is anyone’s guess…as one engineer said “the full decommissioning of Fukushima is likely to take many, many decades and include tasks that have never been attempted anywhere in the world.” 



TEPCO estimates the full decommissioning to cost about $50 billion.  I would venture to say that this could actually run into $100-200 billion…many times more that the capital value of Japan’s entire nuclear program, and take 60 years to complete…if ever.  Add to that the other economic costs…social, environmental, etc., and we might begin to understand the significance of this “accident.”  With Chernobyl, nobody really knew/knows the full extent, although there have been many guesses and assumptions.  This was in a rather isolated part of the Russia, and the powers that be kept a pretty good lid on it.  With Japan, a small island with important standing in the modern world, and with the contamination of the Pacific Ocean and all which that signifies, the world is well aware of what is going on, and hopefully will learn its lessons.  This can happen anytime, and anywhere there is a nuclear power plant.  Again, I question the economics of nuclear power.













Friday, November 1, 2013

The Price of Gasoline



“Chevron said Friday that net income fell 6 percent in the third quarter as weak refining results and higher operating costs offset higher oil and gas production and prices.”

Here in Humboldt County, the price for a gallon of gasoline has recently dropped to $3.99.  It has been between $4.19 and $4.29 for most of the year.

The US is producing the most oil from domestic sources in over 30 years.  Our imports are down significantly, and our exports are way up.

So we are now saving 25 cents on a gallon of gas…whoopee!  But just wait.  The price will go up again, because: “Chevron's worldwide oil and gas production rose 3 percent, or about 70,000 barrels per day compared with last year. Higher oil prices in the U.S. and abroad, and higher natural gas prices in the U.S. also helped boost revenue. But higher operating and exploration expenses offset those gains. The company's oil and gas exploration and production earnings fell 1 percent in the quarter. Refining profit fell by 45 percent in the quarter because input costs such as crude oil stayed high while prices for fuel products such as gasoline fell.”

Drill, Baby, drill…that whole mantra, and everything that was said by Palin, Gingrich, and the rest of those morons was really a lie.  Flat out BS to the American public.  We could drill and frack to their hearts content, become “energy self-sufficient,” produce all our own energy, and we would not be in control of the price of gasoline.  I would expect that Chevron and Exxon (who reported the same kinds of earnings) will now have to manipulate the refining market…time for another explosion or fire, or something to get that price of gasoline back up…this time to $4.49 or more.

It’s the same players and game in the entire fossil fuel and nuclear business.  And we use an enormous amount of our tax dollars to assure the “health” of these energy giants, while some of us squabble about the health care for our citizens.  Makes one want to think??!!