Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Hard To Keep Up

Another week of breathing smoke, and I'm reading about the administration's attempt to rollback the clean air standards for power plants (especially coal-fired plants) which in the long run would dramatically affect the quality of the air we, and future generations, will breathe. The energy industry continues to do everything they can to discourage renewables with their blatant expensive PR campaign.

Nuclear power is basically dead because it simply is too expensive and not cost effective in our energy mix even without massive subsidies. It is not a solution to our climate change challenges. In fact, when it is really hot, and the demand for electricity is great, many reactors have to shit down because of cooling water problems. The "renaissance" from 12 years ago is dead! The half-built Sumner plant in South Carolina has been scrapped, and all the powers that be are trying to sort out who has/will pay the $9 billion already spent. Of course, the ratepayers will ultimately be on the hook for about $6,500 each, and the utilities and giants like Westinghouse walk away or go bankrupt. The Vogle plant in Georgia, still under construction, is faring no better, and will probably be canceled within the next year. Twelve years and some $20 billion later...no affordable, clean electricity! The same is true in other parts of the "free world." Bechtel just pulled out of the Hitachi deal to build a nuke in Britain. France is struggling with it's two new generation plants under construction. Japan can't afford to even upgrade and reopen its 50 idle plants because it is struggling with the massive costs of trying to figure out what to do with Fukushima, which continues to be a massive mess.

With this economic failure on the construction side, a few utilities are now having to deal with the back-end of the technology. The shutdown and decommissioning of plants around the US and elsewhere is creating incredible economic issues. Vermont Yankee, San Onofre, Diablo Canyon, Oyster Creek, and the dozen more in the block will cost ratepayers tens of billions of dollars today, and hundreds of billions over the next 100 years or so. The strategy here is to defer decommissioning for 40-60 years (for worker safety reasons!) And, there are still another 80+ plants that are rapidly approaching the end of their useful life.

And then again, there is the issue of spent fuel management and storage. Yucca Mountain will never open, so the industry's push is to send the dry casks to a central "temporary" facility run by a couple of corporations. The Holtec plan for New Mexico is great for Holtec (a privately held company) since they also are one of the largest builders of dry casks. Billions and billions of our dollars here! The only other option is to leave the 10+ million dollar casks on site, and continue to spend millions of dollars per year monitoring and safeguarding them for eternity. The big issue right now at San Onofre on the California south coast is that those 250+ casks will sit on a pad 100 yards from the Pacific Ocean. Sea rise, earthquakes, tsunami, all those immigrant terrorists...not to worry, the powers that be will take care of it! The hyped-up promise of cheaper small modular reactors is still tied to all the other issues of fuel storage, the balance of system, grid interties, etc., and realistically and technologically will not be cost effective.

Nuclear fusion is again making some waves with the promise of clean, cheap, unlimited energy will soon be there for us. Another giant hoax and myth that is sucking up our research dollars. We probably will achieve a sustained fusion reaction, but all the issues affecting the fission industry today will apply to fusion reactors. True, there will not be any high-level wastes (long-lived transuranics) produced; but we're still dealing with neutrons and the activation problems they create. Interesting enough, the USS Enterprise, the first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, which has been in mothballs for many years now with its spent fuel removed from its 10 small (10MW) reactors. The current estimate to "decommission" the ship is over $1 billion, due to the neutron activation making it difficult to disassemble, and the metal un-recyclable. The other challenging issues with fusion involve how to contain the hot plasma (hundreds of millions of degrees) and extract the heat necessary to boil water into steam to spin the turbine which spins the generator which creates a flow of electricity. We're not going to have one in every garage...The "costs" of large central power sources make them uneconomical and eventually unnecessary in our future electricity systems. The other interesting sidelight of fusion fuel...unlimited deuterium in seawater, must be extracted. Deuterium has a natural abundance in Earth's oceans of about one atom in 6420 of hydrogen. Great...I've always been a proponent of the hydrogen economy, where H2 will be the storage medium to be used in fuel cells or combusted back to water. Right now hydrogen production is too expensive.????? What about the tritium? Construction costs, O&M costs, decommissioning costs?

The good news is that gains in hydrogen as an energy carrier and storage medium other than for use in vehicles is making some gains in Australia, Germany, Canada, and Japan. Again, the US lags behind. The solar industry continues to grow, in spite of the tariffs, penalties, and the push for coal and nuclear power. The cost continues to come down as the technology matures, efficiency increases, and individuals and business realize the cost-effectiveness and savings they can have. More on this later.

Just a few references (there are so many now each day!)







Tuesday, August 14, 2018

August Climate Update

August Update

As I sit here on a cool foggy coastal afternoon, I'm reflecting on the extreme heat and ferocious fires raging not too far inland. One concern is the Carr fire is less than a mile from our friend's summer place out at Lewiston, and moving in their direction. Scary! But what is more discerning is the continued vehement denial by the few, that human induced global warming, or climate change, or whatever you want to call it, is not responsible. In spite of all the evidence, scientific, political, and economic, this contrived denial is proving to be the greatest “hoax” ever inflicted on humanity by a small handful of powerful and greedy people. Not to argue here, but the question that is never asked, and they never would answer is “what if man-induced climate change is true?” The economic, environmental, and social ramifications are enormous and almost overwhelming, not so much for us, but for future generations, because the extremes we are experiencing now will only get worse, leading to far greater devastation

Reading the news, we're seeing hundreds of fires across the US and Canada, as well as devastating fires in Greece, Sweden...all over the world. I just talked to a friend in British Columbia, and he is seeing drought, dryness, tree deaths from insect infestations...all sorts of worrisome issues. And yet the current powers and leaders blame the radical environmentalists...the easy prey, who have prevented logging and letting water run down our rivers to the ocean. Really?????

Watching the national news shows record-breaking flooding in Pennsylvania, and the whole east coast, as well as extreme climate phenomenon through-out the world. And yet, the fossil fuel interest continue to lie and spew their stupidity, greed, and disinformation. The $2billion they have spent over tall those years could have gone into a lot of positive solutions.

We will reach a point very soon, where the economic costs and social suffering overwhelm all of our budgets and infrastructure; and “we” finally begin to address the causes and solutions to the problem. It will be too late to stop the advancing changes we have already initiated, but we will be forced to begin to do things to mitigate future impacts.

As I always have said...we cannot destroy our environment. But we can change it to make human life more difficult, expensive, and miserable.

Enough said. I urge you to “PAY ATTENTION!!”
And again, I encourage you to watch “After the Warming” on Utube. This entertaining narrative visualizes the predictions made in the 1990 IPCC report. So far it is impressively pretty accurate.


PS: The Carr Fire has been contained on the west side, so it no longer is a direst threat our friends home! But again, it is only early August.