Tuesday, December 31, 2013

A Welcome to 2014



I want to wish you all a very Happy New Year, and I am so optimistic about the major changes that will occur in 2014.

First, on the nuclear side…it is dead, although its tail is still waggin’.  We will finally begin to see the outrageous true costs of decommissioning and waste disposal as more plants are shut down, and the public begins to finally realize what is in store for them and their kids.  As we face those serious economic issues, more countries will also open their eyes and rethink their energy options.

Secondly, the growth of renewables will grow exponentially.  They are now so cost effective, that they are creating problems of overcapacity and loss of utilities control.  In spite of the billions spent by the “powers that be,” we will begin to address the restructuring of utilities and rates, and start to make major changes to our so out-dated grid system.  We will see breakthrough efforts in energy storage, and a whole new economic model of financing the upfront costs of all these technologies.  The ultimate “gold ring” is that the fuel is free, and its cost will not fluctuate as with other fuels; and of course this goes against every fiscal conservative economic model that we have lived with in the past.  And the price of fossil fuels will rise, as we begin to seriously adopt measures such as a carbon tax, and other climate change actions.

2014 will be a landmark year in politics, economics, energy policy, and I hope in other key social issues as well.

Happy Sunny and Windy New Year!!!!!!!!!

Friday, December 6, 2013

Beginning to Understand the TRUE Costs of Nuclear Power



Last month two major court decisions were handed down that have significant impact on the overall economics of nuclear power.  Unfortunately, this was not picked up by the mainstream news media, nor has it been fully vetted by the anti-nuclear community.



Here is some background, beginning with the 1982 Nuclear Policy Act signed by Ronald Reagan.  It said that beginning in 1998, the Federal Government (DOE) would take possession and responsibility for all high-level spent fuel from commercial nuclear power plants, and will place it in a permanent geologic repository.  Also, the utilities would contribute 1 mil ($0.001) per kilowatt/hour of nuclear generated electricity into the Nuclear Waste Fund, to pay for the building and operation of the repository.  To date, about $30 billion has been collected from nuclear utility customers for the fund.



Yucca Mountain was chosen in 1988 as the preferred site, and work began characterizing the mountain.  The law said that the geology alone should provide the isolation of the spent fuel from the environment for a minimum of 10,000 years.  In the mid-90’s, it was determined that the natural environmental conditions in the repository would interact with the heat and radiation from the fuel, and would destabilize the integrity of the storage canisters.  The repository design was then modified to allow the placement of some sort of metal “drip shields” to protect the canisters.  That was the first major problem…a metal that would avoid corrosion for 10,000 years?  After 20 years of scientific study, and about $14 billion from the fund, the inevitable “uncertainty” of Yucca Mountain to meet the isolation requirement came to light (NRC Chairwoman Alison MacFalane’s “Uncertainty Underground”), and after much legal and scientific jostling between DOE, EPA, NRC, and the state of Nevada, work was halted in 2006, and finally abandoned by President Obama in 2009.  The ultimate question of whether Yucca Mountain can serve as our repository, or whether there is anyplace else where we can technologically isolate hot, radioactive material for tens of thousands of years must be answered by science, technology,  and social morality, and not by politics.



So, what were the two court decisions?  The first dealt with DOE’s responsibility for spent fuel after the 1998 deadline was not met.  It is costing utilities somewhere between $10-15 million per year to store and safeguard the high-level waste, whether it is pools or dry cask storage.  Utilities have sued DOE saying that they should be reimbursed for this cost, since by law, DOE owns the fuel and should take care of it.  In several cases over the years, the courts have agreed.  Last month they granted Maine Yankee $35.7 million in addition to $81.7 million granted earlier in the year, for storage fees (total $117.4 million) from 1998 to 2008.  A third claim is in for 2009-12, and more claims later for 2013 to ????? “Two other New England power plants – Connecticut Yankee Atomic Power Co. and Yankee Atomic Electric Co. of Rowe, Mass. – also were awarded damages this week in the amounts of $126.3 million and $73.3 million, respectively.”   More utilities are expected to follow suit. In other words, the taxpayers are going to pay these costs and not the ratepayers who benefited from the cheap nuclear generated electricity.(1)(2)



There are major points to be gleaned from these decisions.  First, 104 nuclear power plants in the US…storage costs of $10 million/year/each…1998 to 2013…$15 billion+/- owed to the utilities by the US taxpayers????  What about 2014 to ????  We will eventually have to move all the fuel rods into dry cask storage…6000 casks at $10 million each to construct and load.  Another $60 billion????

A repository, even if we started now, wouldn’t be ready for at least another twenty years (nuclear industry best “estimate”.)  Nuclear power was supposed to be cheap, and pay for itself.  Not true!  So we have a 20 year old living in Oregon, and lucky enough to have a job, a 45 year old living in Idaho, and all the rest of the 100% Americans paying taxes that are going to pay for the storage of spent nuclear fuel at the long gone Trojan Nuclear Power Plant in Oregon, shuttered in 1993, which produced “cheap” electricity for a few, for only 15 years.  Fair??? You’d think the fiscal conservatives would be all over this.  A tax, by any other name, is still a tax. Somebody has to pay. The argument that tax dollars shouldn’t be used to help pay for health insurance or social security falls very short when in actuality, tax dollars are being used to pay the nuclear industry’s bad investments and debts.



The second court decision handed yet another economic blow to the US taxpayer.  The Nuclear Waste fund was collecting some $750 million per year earmarked for permanent storage in a repository.  Out of the $30 billion collected so far (including interest earned), about half has already been spent on a dry hole (Yucca Mountain.)  The US Court of Appeals just ruled that DOE should stop collecting that fee.  “The appeals court panel said the Energy Department failed to come up with an adequate evaluation for the waste fee…the agency’s assessment of disposal costs was “so large as to be absolutely useless to be used as an analytic technique”… Judge Silberman wrote in the seven-page decision that the department’s presentation reminded the court of a line from the musical “Chicago,” which says, “Give them the old razzle dazzle.” (3)(4) 



The fact of the matter here is that the remaining $15 billion in the fund is a mere pittance in what it will/would cost to develop a repository.  When Yucca Mountain was cancelled, the nuclear industry “estimate” for construction and operation beginning in 2030 was $95 billion.  What’s that cost going to be 30, 40, ??? years from now.  Again, the US taxpayer will be held responsible to pay the nuclear bill.  The Baby Boomers and those alive over the past 40 years have benefited from “cheap” nuclear electricity, only because they have deferred the true costs onto many, many generations of taxpayers in the future. 



What will the final price of spent fuel management be over the next 50…100 years?  $200 billion?  $500 billion?  Add to this the cost of decommissioning the 100 reactors ($2 billion + each  at today’s estimates) and the cost of cleaning up all the other components of the nuclear industry (uranium mine tailings, enrichment plants, fuel fabrication plants, etc, etc,) and we’re looking at a trillion dollars or more.  This is the “back-end” costs that very few people really understand, or are talking about.  The industry is too busy wanting to build even more plants, and pushing the continued lie that nuclear power is cheap, safe, clean, and our only energy salvation.



Once again, we’ve been had, and by the very same people who stand up and spout out that this type of “socialist” thing is fiscally unacceptable, and not fair to our children and grandchildren.  Money turns a blind eye!  Open your eyes and follow it. This whole waste issue is just beginning to come to light.  It will be interesting to see how the industry justifies its position.



  1. http://www.kjonline.com/news/Court_orders__235M_payment_for_nuclear_waste_storage.html



  1. http://www.boston.com/news/local/maine/2013/11/15/court-orders-payment-for-nuke-waste-storage/wpoLINQZR0ZzklYARmp5iM/story.html





  1. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/nuclear-power-s-750-million-reprieve-doesn-t-end-dilemma.html



  1. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/nuclear-power-s-750-million-reprieve-doesn-t-end-dilemma.html




















Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Beating a Dead Horse



I hate to keep harping on this, but my frustration with the “fiscal conservatives” is so overwhelming and unimaginable.  They just keep beating a dead horse’s ass because of their greed and ignorance in maintaining an obviously very expensive and unsustainable energy system.  It just goes against their basic principles.  Here is just the top of one pile in Canada…and the same is happening here in the US, in Britain, and soon in the rest of the world.  A 30% rate increase to “include ensuring obligations for used nuclear fuel management and decommissioning costs are met.”  The days of cheap nuclear energy were over a long time ago. The horse died, but we’re still grooming it, keeping the stalls clean, and trying to figure out what to do with the body and the pile of manure.



At the other end of the horse, we now have a new economic battle taking form.  Arizona, one of the sunniest areas of the country, with a huge peak demand for electricity, and millions of rooftops gathering sunshine, is fighting the implementation of solar energy---NOT because solar is too expensive, since thousands of homeowners are investing in their own systems, but because it impacts the economics of the local utilities.  Rather than praise the economic virtues of solar and shift their thinking and resources into implementing all the advantages that renewables offer, they are mouthing the Koch brothers greedy lies (they just rejoined ALEC) and keeping Arizona and the rest of the nation from moving forward into the inevitable renewable, sustainable energy future.



I’m not a Tea Party supporter, but you’ve got to give them credit for doing the right thing, even if it’s for the wrong reason.


So the bottom line today is that solar is NOT too expensive, and its price continues to come DOWN.  It is now cost competitive, affordable, and in the hands of the people.  The powers that be don’t like that.  Too much personal freedom; less centralized regulatory control; least cost alternative.  Isn’t that the mantra of a Republican fiscal conservative?

It’s getting warmer out there…!!!!!


Thursday, November 7, 2013

Phase One of Cleaning Up Fukushima





Almost three years after the accidents, TEPCO is about to begin the dangerous and arduous task of removing spent fuel rods from the storage pool at Unit #4.  This reactor was not running when the earthquake/tsunami hit, but hydrogen explosions severely damaged the spent fuel pool and its surrounding buildings.  This is just one of the areas where water has had to be continually pumped in to keep the rods cool and shielded, yielding massive amounts of contaminated water to be dealt with.



The plan is to use a makeshift crane to individually lift the 1500+ fuel assemblies and place them in a heavily shielded cask.  All this needs to happen underwater, and in a heavily damaged building.  The cask, which can hold about 20 assemblies, will be sealed, and then transported “somewhere” away from the nuclear site where the process will be reversed.  The cask will be placed underwater in a new pool, and the fuel assemblies will be removed and re-racked in the new storage area.  The cask will be returned to Unit #$ and the process will begin again.  This is expected to take about two years to complete.



Why TEPCO is not putting the fuel assemblies directly into dry casks for storage is anybody’s guess.  That technology appears to be a US initiative, and Japan probably does not have the technical resources to do it.  Here at Humboldt Bay, we built a storage bunker for six casks.  The spent fuel was loaded directly into the casks (underwater), and then transported a few hundred yards to the bunker.  The advantage of this process is that the fuel does not have to be water-cooled, so you do not have “leakage” problems.  And once a repository is available, you don’t have to re-load the fuel into new transportation casks.  Fukushima will be handling that fuel at least three times in its long life.



I would imagine that cost has a lot to do with this decision.  Here in the US, the casks cost about $2 million each, and all the associated loading and handling brings that total to about $10 million each.  Fukushima would need about 30 casks…total project cost could be $300 million.  Their thinking might be that it is probably cheaper to “kick the can down the road” and put this stuff in a swimming pool, maintain it and hope it doesn’t leak, and let future generations deal with all this later. After the fuel is removed, Unit #4 can be decommissioned.  Since the reactor was not damaged, the decommissioning costs would probably be around $1-2-? billion.



This is the least of TEPCO’s problems.  Units #1,2, & 3 have melted fuel inside their reactors, as well as spent fuel assemblies in their spent fuel pools.  How all this will be handled is anyone’s guess…as one engineer said “the full decommissioning of Fukushima is likely to take many, many decades and include tasks that have never been attempted anywhere in the world.” 



TEPCO estimates the full decommissioning to cost about $50 billion.  I would venture to say that this could actually run into $100-200 billion…many times more that the capital value of Japan’s entire nuclear program, and take 60 years to complete…if ever.  Add to that the other economic costs…social, environmental, etc., and we might begin to understand the significance of this “accident.”  With Chernobyl, nobody really knew/knows the full extent, although there have been many guesses and assumptions.  This was in a rather isolated part of the Russia, and the powers that be kept a pretty good lid on it.  With Japan, a small island with important standing in the modern world, and with the contamination of the Pacific Ocean and all which that signifies, the world is well aware of what is going on, and hopefully will learn its lessons.  This can happen anytime, and anywhere there is a nuclear power plant.  Again, I question the economics of nuclear power.













Friday, November 1, 2013

The Price of Gasoline



“Chevron said Friday that net income fell 6 percent in the third quarter as weak refining results and higher operating costs offset higher oil and gas production and prices.”

Here in Humboldt County, the price for a gallon of gasoline has recently dropped to $3.99.  It has been between $4.19 and $4.29 for most of the year.

The US is producing the most oil from domestic sources in over 30 years.  Our imports are down significantly, and our exports are way up.

So we are now saving 25 cents on a gallon of gas…whoopee!  But just wait.  The price will go up again, because: “Chevron's worldwide oil and gas production rose 3 percent, or about 70,000 barrels per day compared with last year. Higher oil prices in the U.S. and abroad, and higher natural gas prices in the U.S. also helped boost revenue. But higher operating and exploration expenses offset those gains. The company's oil and gas exploration and production earnings fell 1 percent in the quarter. Refining profit fell by 45 percent in the quarter because input costs such as crude oil stayed high while prices for fuel products such as gasoline fell.”

Drill, Baby, drill…that whole mantra, and everything that was said by Palin, Gingrich, and the rest of those morons was really a lie.  Flat out BS to the American public.  We could drill and frack to their hearts content, become “energy self-sufficient,” produce all our own energy, and we would not be in control of the price of gasoline.  I would expect that Chevron and Exxon (who reported the same kinds of earnings) will now have to manipulate the refining market…time for another explosion or fire, or something to get that price of gasoline back up…this time to $4.49 or more.

It’s the same players and game in the entire fossil fuel and nuclear business.  And we use an enormous amount of our tax dollars to assure the “health” of these energy giants, while some of us squabble about the health care for our citizens.  Makes one want to think??!!


Saturday, October 26, 2013

New Challenges for Renewables




2013 has served as a benchmark for solar and wind, as they have reached the long-awaited point where they are cost-effective and cost-competitive with most other sources of electricity generation.  Utilities everywhere, here and abroad, are jumping on the renewables wagon because they are now appearing to be the “best” new source of generation.  Led by California, and an ever-growing list of commercial and industrial entities such as Apple, Google, Oracle, Ebay, even Walmart) “microgrids are emerging as a credible threat to the dominance of America’s 100-year-old-plus utility monopoly. The small-scale versions of centralized power systems, once just used against blackouts, are now gaining thousands of customers as homeowners in states with high power costs turn to them as a way to manage rooftop solar systems, cut electricity bills and, in some cases, say goodbye to their power companies” (1) This is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg, and its rapid growth has identified two major issues that will need to be seriously addressed.

First is the “problem” of intermittency of generation.  The sun doesn’t always shine, and the wind doesn’t always blow; so the harvesting and storage of electricity from these sources is the next big challenge.  Up to now, solar has been very effective in supplying “peak electricity,” displacing costly fossil fuel generators.  But it has worked so well, that we are approaching times in some places where there is way more renewable electricity available than is demanded. (2) 

Electricity storage is not really a new concept (remember, we are using stored energy from photosynthesis in our oil and gas), and a variety of new and diverse systems will be needed in the future.  Back in the early years of nuclear power in California, PG&E proposed building the 2200MW Diablo Canyon twin nuclear reactors.  At that time, this power plant would produce about 20% of PG&E’s supply.  As with other large steam-driven generators, one cannot simply turn the system on or off to meet demand, such as a night.  If Diablo Canyon came on line, it would create a major problem with all the other generators in the state.  The solution was the construction of the Helms Project. (3) Two lakes at different elevations were identified in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and a large tunnel was drilled between them.  The water from the upper lake is controlled and during the day is released through the shaft to spin generators below to make electricity.  However, this would eventually deplete the upper reservoir.  So at night, the 2200MW from Diablo Canyon is used to reverse-pump the water in the lower lake back up to the upper lake, so it can be re-released again the next day when the demand for electricity was up.  Pretty nifty!  Helms produces about 1000MW when running during the day, and requires about 2000MW for back-pumping; so it around 50% efficient…1000MW of nuclear electricity is “lost,” but that is electricity for which there is no demand in the California grid system, and is deemed “losable.”

California, and other states and utilities, are exploring a wide variety of energy storage systems.  Aside from pumped-storage of water, other technologies include compressed air storage in large cavities (such as those created by the extraction of oil and gas), batteries, ultra-high energy capacitors, and a whole range of new ideas.  My bet is on Hydrogen…use renewable electricity to hydrolyze water into H2, store it on site, and then run it in a fuel cell to created electricity and a waste product of pure water, which can then be reused.  Clean, fairly simple technology that already exists.  Inefficient?  Probably no worse that the 33% efficiency we get from traditional steam generation; and of course, the fuel is free and clean.  The main argument is cost, and the implementation of this technology…but this too, will be addressed and overcome as the true value of the benefits of renewable electricity is slowly absorbed into our energy economic reality.


The other big issue created by this rapid growth of local, micro-generation is its impact on utilities, who claim they are forced to maintain large, inefficient grids supplying fewer and fewer customers.  Also of concern is the price paid to individual generators who wind up putting electricity into the grid as their meters spin backwards. (4) This is reminiscent of what the automobile did to the horse industry, or what the cell phone has done/is doing to the land-line companies.  One main challenge is to modernize and upgrade our national and local grids to accept the new energy resources of the future.  Right-wing, fiscal conservative opposition is in full swing to defeat any recommended changes; but as renewables become mainstream, for economic and/or environmental reasons, electricity
supply and distribution will be very different in the future.  Already, California is leading the way with new regulatory ideas and laws to encourage the continued growth of renewables. 

The transition many have dreamed about is now upon us.  It will not be easy, and not without mistakes and problems.  It will take time, ingenuity, money, and most of all commitment for a safe, clean, affordable, and sustainable future.  And most important of all – it produces local jobs.  It is happening!

Some references:
  1. http://lasvegas.cbslocal.com/2013/07/02/apple-to-build-massive-solar-plant-to-power-data-centers/



  1. http://www.loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=13-P13-00042&segmentID=1







  1. http://www.forbes.com/sites/uciliawang/2013/09/10/how-utilities-use-solar-energy-to-woo-customers/?ss=business:energy










Thursday, October 24, 2013

Nuclear Update



Nuclear power has again been making the headlines on the international front.  Britain has supposedly approved building two reactors at the Hinckley site for $26 billion (US).  What’s interesting is that this is being financed by Chinese and French money, and the reactor technology and construction will be handled by the French company Areva.  This reactor design is currently being built at two projects in Finland and France, and both are behind schedule and way over cost; and the design is untested technology.  Quite a gamble for Britain!  The “selling” points are that it will create a lot of jobs until its projected completion date of 2023; and that the British government will guarantee buying the electrical output at about $0.15/kwh.  This is pretty expensive, but their rationale is that all energy will be expensive 10 years from now.  And again, this “cost” does not realistically include decommissioning and waste disposal costs in the future.  We’ll see if this deal really goes through, or if it turns into another boondoggle down the road.  As with other countries, the Brits are just beginning to deal with the closure of current nuclear plants, and getting a glimpse of what the huge back-end decommissioning and wastes costs will be.  Maybe that’s why they can’t finance this themselves.

The other much bigger news comes from Fukushima in Japan.  Two and a half years after the meltdowns and loss of cooling at the four reactors, the government and the utility in charge are throwing up their hands and admitting they don’t have a clue of what to do.  The fuel is extremely hot and radioactive, so water has to be continually pumped in to cool and shield it from the environment.  However, the buildings and most of the equipment was severely damaged by the earthquake and tsunami, so that much of the water that is pumped in (which now contains radioactive particles) is leaking out into the groundwater and making its way to the Pacific Ocean.   There have been all kinds of suggested solutions: a two mile ice dam around the facility, a major pipeline to pump the contaminated water to a distant storage site where rapidly constructed leaky tanks won’t threaten the ocean, etc, etc.  They are asking for international help.  You’d think that after two and a half years, the British, French, Americans, even the Chinese would have offered some advice.  No clue!

The significance of this is mind-boggling.  This is an accident that is now not limited to a local geographic or national site; the contamination of the Pacific Ocean goes against all the treaties signed in the past to protect the Ocean commons.  Aside from the ecological damage, the impact of fisheries and seafood production, the source of livelihood for millions of people, is at risk.  Enjoy your sushi!  Don’t worry; as Fox News once reported, “a little radiation is good for you!”

On the home front, “decommissioning” now appears to be a daily concern.  Hearings and public meetings for San Onofre and Vermont Yankee lead the charge in identifying what is involved with both time and money.  Concerns with New York’s Indian Point, Comanche Peak, Monticello…the list goes on and is growing, are now being addressed, and the public is finally appearing to realize the Faustian Bargain they were sold years ago, as the true costs are beginning to be revealed.

As for the new Hinckley reactors, British Energy Secretary Ed Davey states "It is going to be really good value for money, because by the time you get to 2023 when it starts generating, in 10 years' time, we are going to live in a very different world for electricity and energy generally."  I hope his kids enjoy their inheritance.

Just a few readings:
1.      Britain’s new nukes.

2.      Fukushima


3.      US decommissioning and reactor problems







Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Dealing With Our Nuclear Spent Fuel




Over the last couple of months, there has been a lot of talk about finally doing something with the spent fuel inventory that is steadily increasing on site at our nuclear reactors.  The problem is, there is no solution to permanently dispose of this waste, and there is no realistic technology available to even render it less dangerous.  It simply must be isolated from the environment.

Spent fuel is the “used up” fuel from a nuclear reactor.  A fresh fuel rod contains 97% Uranium 238, and 3% U235 (the fissionable form of Uranium.)  After about 2 years of use in a reactor, it is “spent,” and now has a composition of about 96% Uranium 238, 1% U235, 1% Plutonium 239 (which is created by neutron capture of U238), and 2-3% fission products (formed when U235 fissions.)  The fuel rods are typically removed and stored in a pool to keep them cool, and provide shielding from the high levels of radioactivity that they emit.  Hence, it is called high-level waste.  After about five years, the fuel has somewhat stabilized with many of the fission products having decayed; but the remaining ones, as well as the Plutonium, remain highly radioactive for many thousands of years.  This material needs to be contained and shielded, and continues to give off heat as a byproduct of its radioactive decay. 

There is about 70,000 tons of spent fuel stored at reactor sites in the U.S., and utilities are running out of room in their fuel pools as they keep adding to the volume.  Many are opting to place these fuel bundles into dry-cask storage…large heavily shielded canisters that typically sit on a pad outside, and are air-cooled.  At Humboldt Bay, there are 6 casks, and it cost close to $70 million to put the fuel into dry storage.  It costs about $12 million/year for security, monitoring, and maintenance.  It is estimated that we would need some 6000+ casks to contain our current spent fuel inventory.  $80 billion + ??? in today’s dollars.

Nuclear fuel is owned by the government’s Department of Energy, and it is “rented” out to nuclear utilities.  The 1982 Nuclear Waste Policy Act mandated that by 1998, the government would have a deep geologic repository ready, and would take possession of the spent fuel.  This has not happened…not even close.  Many years, and $15 billion have been spent on Yucca Mountain, a possible repository site north of Las Vegas.  Aside from all the politics, the bottom line is that the DOE could not meet the EPA criteria and standards for containment of radioactivity at this site.  This isolation from the environment needs to be for a minimum of 10,000 years, even though radioactivity will remain there for 100,000 years or more.  The sealed central storage of so much radioactivity would produce high amounts of heat that would unpredictably create changes in the geology of the mountain, and threaten the integrity of the casks themselves.  Cask failure could lead to the release and mixing of fuel that could trigger fission processes, explosions, contamination of ground water, and a host of other unknown reactions during the thousands of years this material is active.  Allison MacFarlane (the new chairwoman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and a noted geologist) concludes the obvious in her excellent book “Uncertainty Underground.”   We do not know enough to be able to model and predict what will happen so many years into the future.

The recent push by the nuclear industry, wanting to rid themselves of the responsibility of spent fuel, is pushing for a new “independent” review of Yucca Mountain.  President Obama’s Blue Ribbon Committee of a few years ago came to the conclusion that there is no solution to this waste problem.  Congress will now form another committee to “come up with a solution.”  This is not a political problem.  It is the scientific reality that radioactivity is an atomic-level process, and not a molecular one that can be manipulated and neutralized.  We cannot make it go away.  The early nuclear pioneers understood this, but in the glory days of nuclear bombs and “electricity too cheap to meter,” they rushed ahead hoping that someday, someone would figure it out.  70 years down the road, we don’t even have a clue.  Oh, what to do?

There are several possible courses of action, which will be looked at and proposed over the next couple of years.  The first is to continue characterizing Yucca Mountain or finding some other geologic site somewhere…Texas, New Mexico, Mississippi ???   We are not alone, since other countries are also beginning to look at solutions for their wastes.  Sweden, with its relatively small amount of spent fuel, is currently storing it in copper casks in a geologic cave, with the idea that it can be retrieved when a better solution is found.  Problems have already begun to surface.  Germany has recently reopened their  investigations, going back to the drawing board.  Japan doesn’t have a clue with what they are going to do…right now they’re “underwater.”

A second option is an idea that has been around for a while and involves creating a central Monitored Retrievable Site.  Take all the casks, and ship them to one location.  The leading contender is Skull Mountain in Utah, where the 35 members of the Goshute Indian Rancheria were offered $50 million to use a portion of their land for this purpose.  Too bad it is directly in the flight path of an Air Force practice bombing range!  Placing all this material in one place is very risky, especially with current terrorist and climate change possibilities.  Transporting 6000+ casks and storing them in the open air…???!!!  And then transporting them again if/when a repository is built, or maintaining/re-casking the spent fuel 50-60 years down the road?  Security?  Very expensive and dangerous.

A third option, which the nuclear industry wants, is probably more insane than the initial creation of the entire nuclear power business.  Reprocessing, or recycling as they call it, involves taking the fuel rods, grinding them up and dissolving them in acids, and then separating out the U238, the unused U235, and the Plutonium, which would then be put into new fuel.  This is what was done in Hanford to acquire the Plutonium for our nuclear bombs. The remaining liquids, containing the highly radioactive fission products, would then be concentrated, and “vitrified”…converted into a glass/ceramic log that will have to be disposed of in a geologic repository for thousands of years.  Sounds great?  Ed Lyman, a prominent scientist with the Union of Concerned  Scientists says “reprocessing actually increases, not decreases, the total volume of long-lived nuclear waste that must be stored and eventually buried in a geologic repository  It only slightly reduces the volume of high-level nuclear waste that must be disposed of in a repository.”  Can we really do this?  At what cost?  The “new” vitrification plant under construction at Hanford is half completed, 12 years behind schedule, and 13X over budget at a current $13 billion. How many of these plants would we have to build, and where?  How would we be transporting all this dangerous material around?  We’d have to build new power plants to burn the “new” mixed-oxide fuel and Plutonium fuel?  How much would it cost to build this whole new infrastructure?  We tried this in West Valley, New York back in the 70’s and it turned into an economic and environmental disaster.  

Reprocessing produces more problems that it can solve.  It hasn’t worked for England, Germany, and Japan.  The French are reprocessing for the Japanese, and are nowhere near dealing with their own spent fuel.  We don’t know much about the Russian program, but are very concerned with the possibility of Iran and North Korea developing the process to build nuclear weapons. The bottom line is that reprocessing would be a very, very expensive proposition that the taxpayer would wind up funding.  Hundreds of billions of dollars.

There are other options out there…putting it in rockets and shooting it into the sun, dumping it in the deep sea trenches, drilling a deep hole into the earth’s crust and dropping the canisters down.  The most recent moronic idea comes from the chairman of the Oregon Republican Party…”sprinkle nuclear waste over the oceans from airplanes…”

The best strategy seems to be to place spent fuel in dry-cask storage, and keep that material on site until a better solution comes up…which may be never, meaning that the 30+ nuclear sites would become defacto waste dumps.  At least the casks can be monitored, maintained, and repaired if need be.  There are several sites, such as California’s Humboldt Bay, Diablo Canyon, and San Onofre, where special safety issues  such as earthquake, tsunami, and flooding, might require moving these casks to a more secure location. 

Whatever we decide to do, it will be very EXPENSIVE for a very long time.

Some source material:






And then, there is Low-Level Radioactive Wastes…a whole other story:





Thursday, August 29, 2013

Fukushima Update, August 2013



Water, water everywhere, and not a drop…

 
Two and a half years after the nuclear accidents at Fukushima, things are in worse shape than when the earthquake and tsunami hit.  Although it is difficult to really know what is going on there, we know the containment and cleanup is going rather poorly.

The six reactors there each suffered different kinds of accidents.  The two most serious ones were the damage to the core of the reactor in Unit 1, and the damage to the spent-fuel pool of Units 2&3.  In both cases, the immediate need has been, and continues to be cooling the fuel to keep it from melting.  Hence, large amounts of water continues to be pumped into these two facilities, resulting in the outflow of large amounts of radioactive contaminated water.  Under ideal conditions, this water would be captured, filtered, and then released.  A few glitches have come into play.

First of all, the buildings and structures are severely damaged, and the contaminated water is flooding the below-grade basements, and leaking into the groundwater below the plants.  Second, the earthquake altered some of the groundwater flows, so that it is now leaking in to some of the substructures of the plants, increasing the amount of water that has to be dealt with.  Third, the volume of radioactive water to be treated is far greater than the technical capacity available.  They have built over a thousand tanks to store the water for future treatment; and they will continue to add more tanks  for more water.  The problem is that some of the early tanks are already starting to leak.  “Tokyo Electric Power Co. says about 300 tons (300,000 liters, 80,000 gallons) of contaminated water leaked from one of the tanks, possibly through a seam (1),” and that highly radioactive water is getting into the groundwater, which will eventually reach the ocean.  The site of one of the leaks has soil contamination at such a high concentration, that a worker dealing with that leak would receive in one hour his maximum exposure dose allowable in five years.  “Masked workers found puddles with radiation readings of 100 millisieverts an hour near makeshift tanks that store contaminated water – enough to induce radiation sickness in less than 12 hours (2).” 

What to do?  Tepco has suggested building an ice dam all around the entire plant…they would put pipes down several hundred feet, and 24 inches apart, pump a refrigerant through it, and freeze the soil, blocking the flow of water.  Another option is to put a mechanical barrier down to divert the flow of water to somewhere…!  They are obviously going to have to repair the leaky tanks…maybe they should call on the folks who built the tanks at Hanford. 

The problem boils down to the fact that whatever is going to be done, it will be done in a dangerous, highly radioactive environment that will be technically challenging, very expensive, and putting thousands of workers at risk of the potential biological damages from radiation.  The Japanese government is willing to step in and take its budget surplus of several billion of dollars to help out.  However, this accident will run for decades, and will cost in the hundreds of billions of dollars…far more than the worth of the entire Japanese nuclear program.  Add to that the decommissioning cost of the 50 other idle reactors just in that country alone, and …well nuclear is cheap!

But, it’s only money.  Of greater concern is the potential long-term radioactive contamination of the Pacific Ocean, and the concentration of radioactivity in biological systems and fisheries that the world population is so highly dependent on.




Monday, August 19, 2013

Update on Renewables



As we enter the second half of 2013, we find that renewable energy is alive, well, cost-competitive, and significantly gaining in the addition of new electricity generation here in the US, as well as the rest of the world.  The war has been won, although major battles continue to be launched and fought.  The current issue now is the fight which the Conservative, Big Fossil Fuel Industry, Republican, Anti-Environmental, Big Money…the Koch Brothers, Exxon, etc, all the players which I will now call the FFs…are launching against solar, wind, and energy efficiency.  Lots of money being spent by ALEC, the Heritage Foundation, and the like; but they seem to be losing their battles. 
Many states have imposed mandatory renewable quotas for their utilities, which created rate increases and general political upheaval over the years.  Subsidized energy!  Well, all that is changing.  In a landmark decision, Michigan (that wonderful sunny state) is now saying solar and wind are cost-competitive, and is reducing the ratepayer fees which helped bring these resources online.

FF attacks on state renewable mandates are not having much success.

The big FEAR the FFs have is the loss of money, and control and power over their customers who rely on aged utilities to supply them with electricity.  More and more individuals, as well as businesses, are installing their own solar systems, and selling power back to the utilities.  Obviously, this creates a huge new technical, economic, regulatory, and monopoly-busting nightmare for the electricity generating industry.  What to do, what to do?  Fight the change…or join the club.  We’re seeing major utilities, even in Georgia, getting into renewable generation.

This is just business common sense.  If a utility is in business to supply electricity to its customer, then it can do so in a variety of ways…build a large central power plant, whether it is gas fired or solar, or wind…but it can also offer that generation potential in small packages on individual rooftops, commercial complexes, basically any appropriate site.  That is what many small solar businesses are already doing in California and many other states.  In other words, instead of fearing the “new age,” they should see opportunity to profit from it.  A good example is ATT and the telephone land-line.  More and more people are abandoning their old land-lines and going cellular.  The cost of maintaining land-line service is being paid for by a smaller and smaller share of customers.  We may eventually do away with those “telephone poles and wires,” but for now, ATT is very much into cell phones; making that positive transition to the “future.”  The same will be true for the electric utilities…at least those that survive.

Renewables are surging.  We need to keep in mind that the transition will take a certain amount of time.  We can go from 2% renewable electricity to 20-30% in the next 10 years if WE want to. It is an incredible opportunity to create jobs, allow for incredible technical innovation in the industry for production, storage, and cost reduction, be environmentally sustainable, and lead us into the future just as the computer chip has brought us to where we are today.

The battles will continue with the FFs pushing the lies and mis-statements that solar and renewables are too expensive; they are intermittent and thus cannot be trusted; the new small modular nuclear reactors are the wave of the future; global climate change is a hoax…all those clichés that are slowly getting worn out. 

As my friend says, ”follow the money!”





Sunday, July 14, 2013

Cracks in the Economics of Renewables Myth



This has been an amazing week with a significant shift in the perceived ECONOMICS of renewables.  The myth (lie) that solar and wind are too expensive is starting to fall apart.  The blockbuster decision this week by Georgia’s Public Service Commission to force Georgia Power to add 525 megawatts of solar by 2016 is a major step (an economic step) forward, and will lead to the revelations that renewables are/will be truly affordable, cost effective, and environmentally sustainable.
The powers that be, namely the Koch brothers, Exxon, Fox News, etc. have for years pushed the lies and misstatements.  In Georgia last week, Americans For Prosperity-GA, the nation’s premiere grassroots organization for promoting “economic freedom,” launched a project asking activists to urge PSC members to “Keep The Lights On In Georgia” by opposing renewable energy mandates that have been shown to raise the cost of electricity.
http://americansforprosperity.org/georgia/newsroom/immediate-release-afp-ga-launches-keep-the-lights-on-in-ga-project/#ixzz2Z2RQ93Mk
After the Commission voted 3-2 in favor of renewables, “Georgia Power, in a surprising about-face, backed off that argument on Thursday after months of making that case. Instead, its attorney said for the first time that the added solar likely wouldn’t affect power bills.”  Yowie Zowie!
In another surprise move, “Xcel’s Southwestern Public Service unit is asking regulators for permission to buy almost 700 megawatts of power from wind farms in Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico.  The deal will save customers $590 million in fuel expenses over 20 years and the wind farms will generate power at costs lower than most of Xcel’s natural gas plants, according to Riley Hill, president and chief executive officer of Southwestern Public Service. “We are making these acquisitions purely on economics and the savings we can deliver to our customers,” Hill said in the statement.” WOW!  Saving money for its customers with renewables?  What a concept!
The “conservatives” fight against renewables has been going on for the last 30 years and more.  They fear the loss of profits by the status quo because the fuel is FREE!  No money to be made in exploration, extraction, transportation, processing, more transportation, and finally in some retail sales.  Less cost to the consumer…less profit.
In another arena this week, Republicans in the House blocked a bill to increase light bulb efficiency.  Again, the efficient use of energy, saving energy, means less profit for the fossil energy giants.  It’s all about money, and as my friend says “follow the money!”
So, today, we’ve taken another small step in the right direction…seems like we’re taking more and more larger steps…but we still  have a long way to go.

Some interesting insights:
  1. Another of the Koch brother’s organizations: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/06/23/1218301/-ALEC-Strikes-again-by-Resolving-to-Free-Electrity
  2. Fear for the traditional electricity producers: http://grist.org/climate-energy/solar-panels-could-destroy-u-s-utilities-according-to-u-s-utilities/
  3. A nice summary of the anti-renewables campaigns: http://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/201303/grapple-renewable-energy-electricity-freedom-act.aspx
  4. More on the Koch brothers: http://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/201303/grapple-renewable-energy-electricity-freedom-act.aspx
  5. Our democracy in full action: http://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/201303/grapple-renewable-energy-electricity-freedom-act.aspx
  6. Energy efficiency?  One of the basic problem sets I had my students do was a cost analysis between a 100 watt incandescent light bulb and a 23 watt compact florescent.  Basic math!  Things have even gotten better. http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/house/310167-house-again-blocks-enforcement-of-light-bulb-standards

Friday, July 5, 2013

The Sun is Shining



I had a wonderful 4th of July reflecting and discussing how fortunate we are to live in this great nation of America, in spite of all its ongoing problems, and its more recent polarization.  This past week has been a major turning pointing for solar energy in California, and is likely to set precedent for the rest of the country.

The Southwest suffered through an incredible heat wave, which now appears to be subsiding.  Energy pundits were predicting disaster in the state; the two reactors at San Onofre were gone, one unit at Diablo Canyon developed a weld crack and was shut down, and low precipitation in the winter diminished available hydropower.  The loss of some 4000MW of electricity would plunge the state into blackouts, brownouts…industry, people would suffer.  It didn’t happen!  The availability, pricing, and dispatch of electricity is a very complex process, but here are a few things to consider.

The Cal ISO is responsible for keeping the electrons flowing in the wires.  The System Status page on their website is crucial to understanding what is going on.  http://www.caiso.com/SystemStatus.html
shows electricity use for the entire day.  At night, use is low, hitting a low of 24,000MW around 4am.  The peak usually occurs around 4-5pm, and is normally around 34,000MW.  When it is really hot, for the few weeks out of the year, the peak can reach 44,000MW, mainly due to air conditioning, as it did earlier in the week. This demand has to be met, but here are a few key points in this equation.  There was a 20% buffer…available electricity, which can be called upon when needed.  In the case last Tuesday, the amount of electricity available at peak was 55,000MW, 11,000 more than what was needed or used.  These small generators are called “peakers” and are usually small jet turbines that can be turned on/off in a matter of minutes.  They are expensive to run because they only operate for a short period of time when fuel costs are at their highest.  http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2013/jun/29/peaking-units/#axzz2XiYZW5H3
The main point is that we have a lot of generating capacity that is unused during most of a 24 hour period and during most of the year…all there to meet the peak demand when it is hot because the sun is shinning.
Scroll down the page, and look at the renewables contribution to the demand.  The state has about 2000MW from utility grade solar, and an estimated 1500MW from small-scale rooftop systems.  This made up for the loss of nuclear electricity, and because the fuel is free, was actually cheaper than running the natural gas peakers.

Solar is too expensive!  How often have we heard that?  How do we quantify the economics of solar…nuclear…any kind of energy.  That is a great mystery, but the basic economic principles account for Capital investment (design and construction costs), O & M (cost of fuel, operation, and maintenance), End costs (dismantlement, waste disposal, etc), and Profit (utilities are guaranteed a profit after they have paid taxes, insurance, depreciation, public programs, advertising, etc, etc.).  Solar has very low O&M costs (the fuel is free), minimal End costs, but has had high Capital costs.  All that is rapidly changing.  The recent rash of bankruptcies in the solar manufacturing industry worldwide has been due to dramatic reduction in the cost of the final product…the PV cell.  Major blame can be placed on China for “subsidizing” their solar industry, and now dominating the global solar market.
Here are some quotes from recent reading:
“The EIA has historically overestimated the cost of renewables, and underestimated the cost of conventional fuels. The new 50-MW Macho Springs solar plant under construction by First Solar in New Mexico will deliver power for $50.79/MWh (that’s 5 cents/kwh) under its Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), and other US solar projects have come in this year in the range of $70 to $90/MWh.”
“The price of power in the Mid-Columbia was $18.85 per megawatt hour last year (mainly due to cheap hydro), but Energy Northwest’s nuclear power cost was about $47.30 per megawatt hour, said Robert McCullough, of McCullough Research.”
“EIA suggests a minimum cost for advanced nuclear of $104.40, an average of $108.40, and a maximum of $115.30/MWh.”  PG&E’s Diablo Canyon nuclear electricity was 14 cents/kwh back in 2000 during deregulation…that ultimately resulted in their bankruptcy.
 “Three or four years ago, the solar industry was targeting one dollar per watt costs in 2013; today we are at 50 cents per watt.”
“The cost of photovoltaic solar panels is expected to drop to 36 cents per watt by 2017”
Today, solar is almost cost-competitive with grid-tied electricity, not only here in the US, but in Germany, Spain, and Italy, and soon in most parts of the world.  The key to its deployment is POLITICS and not economics. 
Again, California leads the way.  “This week, Los Angeles started the biggest urban rooftop solar program in the country, with the goal of powering 30,000 homes. [LA Times]”   “The California Assembly Utilities and Commerce Committee overwhelmingly approved SB 43, a groundbreaking new program that would give millions of Californians who currently don’t have access to renewable energy the opportunity to use 100% clean energy for the first time.”  These are major steps to empowering the up-coming solar revolution.
Up to now, there have two kinds of solar deployment.  Large-scale utility grid projects have been constructed out in the deserts feeding solar electrons into our wires.  True, these have been expensive, and have required a new learning curve for their integration into the system.  The other type of solar system has been on the roof of the individual homeowner…some providing stand alone power, and many being grid-tied, feeding electricity back into their local grid.  Most of these are/were expensive, required subsidies to make them affordable, and were limited to appropriate rooftops and clientele.
A new third type of solar system will be somewhere in the middle…accessible to the majority of residents wanting to use solar energy, but more importantly, now being able to do so with the fuss and mess of having to do it yourself; or if you are a renter; or if your don’t have the right kind of south facing rooftop.  Suppose you have $10,000 and you want to invest that money in a social and environmentally responsible instrument.  You could put that money into a company that is installing a large solar system on the roof of a local warehouse.  You either get electricity credit for what is produced, or get a payout from the sale of that electricity on the grid.  Most small systems today have a 7-8 year payback (that’s a 10% return on your money).  Larger systems are cheaper, and with the costs coming down, your investment will generate more interest than what is available in most saving accounts or CD’s.  You’re investing in a product that is necessary, and has value; and you will hopefully be bypassing the big-business big-money energy mentality that has worked so hard to strangle renewables for decades.  Their fight is now becoming more desperate, but their economic argument is slowly fading towards extinction.
The potential for smaller, local solar deployment is enormous.  Manufacturing jobs, installation jobs, sales and financing jobs, less costs and more efficiency for maintaining the huge grid system, less CO2 and other environmental problems…on and on. 
Besides the political blockade, there is a major issue/obstacle with solar…the sun doesn’t always shine.  We do have solutions for storing renewable energy, which is crucial for our future…more on that later.  But for now, we need to value the solar electricity that we can easily harness…a value that soon, even the fiscal conservatives will see as a money-making opportunity.
Apple (one of the world’s biggest companies) is heavily investing in solar, primarily as a means of reducing peak demand for the massive air conditioners they are running at their server sites in Nevada and North Carolina.  This will save them money, reduce the strain on the grid, and more importantly, provide a huge push for solar from the “big-money” players. 
Power to the people!  The best is yet to come.
Some interesting reads if you wish to follow up on this discussion.
3.      Excellent energy article in Time magazine  http://business.time.com/2013/06/27/grid-politics/
5.      Even Jim Cramer is beginning to see the light…just wait..  http://www.thestreet.com/story/11911544/1/solar-scores-a-big-win-over-nuclear.html?cm_ven=RSSFeed