Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Take Home Exam

I miss my old days of teaching, although I do not miss the time and effort required in grading exams and papers.  However, I often learned great things from my student's responses.
 
 
For Nuclear Waste 101, here is your mid-term exam, posed by Forbes.
 
 
Remember, that what we're talking about is high level waste (spent fuel) that is highly radioactive and puts out radiation and heat; that if we were to put it into 12 inch canisters, there would be some 10,000+???? of these canisters, requiring careful packaging, transportation, and handling; and that we do not yet have the technology to drill 12 inch bore holes miles into the earth; nor the technology or materials to encase the radioactive for eons.  Do not consider low-level wastes, decommissioning wastes, uranium mine tailings, etc.
 
This stuff has to be isolated from the environment for a minimum of 10,000 years...a long time.  Be sure to consider the seven characteristic criteria listed, that are commonly deemed as necessary in the scientific protocol.  Also keep in mind the problems at Hanford; WIPP in New Mexico; Barnwell, South Carolina (reported today: http://www.wltx.com/story/news/local/2014/03/31/tritium-plume-barnwell-site/7050761/); Paducah, Kentucky, etc.etc,etc....even though these sites deal with low-level and intermediate wastes, and not high level spent fuel.  What concerns might you have about impacts in the future, should your choice fail to meet its objective.
 
And finally, try to estimate the dollar costs involved in your decision, and who/how this would be all be paid for, and a timeline for this to be done.
 
Your exam is due in my box by 5pm, Friday.  After I have graded it, I will send it off for an un-biased second grading by Fox News. 
 
Good Luck!
 

Saturday, March 22, 2014

UNRELIABLE VS INTERMITTENT

Curious...one of the big arguments against renewables is that they are unreliable. The sun doesn't always shine, and the wind doesn't always blow, and that we need 24/7 base load from nuclear, coal, and gas.
Here are some ideas for thought.
  1. By law, and common sense, all utility system operations are required to have a 20-30% reserve of power available. A lot of times this is “peak generators” which can fire up within a few minutes and come on line quickly. Other units may already be warmed up, and ready to connect to the grid. The point is to have enough generation capacity to meet demand.
  2. A big argument against renewables is that they often require redundant systems to make up for what they don't produce at night, or during times when the resource is not generating electricity. These back ups are usually expensive because they only operate for short periods of time. Without storage, renewables can only produce electricity when they can...for solar, that is during the day when the largest demand is made, and for wind, at various times in the day.
  3. This does not mean these resources are unreliable...they are intermittent, and their availability can be predicted and compensated for with strategic planning.
  4. What is proving to be unreliable is our aging fleet of nuclear power baseload plants. What happens when a 1000MW, or a 1200MW plant suddenly goes off line? It is a huge scramble for the system operator to come up with enough of these back up peakers to continue to meet the demand. Much more of a problem than trying to match up producers for expected night time production, or period of low wind.
  5. Storage is the big new challenge and adventure. It will come in the next few years in the form of batteries, and what I still hold forth...hydrogen and fuel cells. Until then, there will continue to be a mix of renewables and natural gas.

In the first half of March 2014 alone, 4 large reactors experienced unplanned shutdowns! Bang...scram...no generation...no electricity! But the lights did not go out, and our power bills didn't go through the roof, as the diversity of our available generation resources meet our needs. This happens a lot, and is going to get worse, as our nuclear fleet reaches the point of no return (investment $$$S?), and just keeping them running will not be cost-effective.
It's all a matter of perspective and of course profit $$$$s, power, and control. The whole utility/independent producer role in supplying electricity is rapidly changing, and will lead to cheaper power, more individual freedoms and choices, less big government interference; and, of course, a cleaner sustainable environment.


Fermi shuts down. (1085MW)

Susquehanna shuts down  (1260MW)

Nine Mile Point shuts down again (1144MW)

Limmerick shut down  (1150MW)

Saturday, March 15, 2014

An Amazing Update

Here we are in March 2014...180 degree flip-flop from just a few years ago, and the price of solar will continue to come down; while the price of nuclear will continue to go up...and add to that the recognition of all the huge associated costs with decommissioning, waste disposal, etc., etc.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
 
Solar at less than 5cents/kwh
 
Nuclear can't compete even with its subsidies
 
Then there's wind power...
 
Just think...if WE really wanted to, we could NOW create so many jobs, build up our renewables industries, march forward with new ideas and innovations, lessen our dependence on oil and gas (domestic or imported), and more rapidly approach the sustainable, cost effective, and environmentally clean energy world we will eventually have.  Follow the money!
 

Friday, February 21, 2014

A Brief Nuclear Update



Here is a brief update on what’s going on in the nuclear energy world.



The Obama administration has finally authorized the guaranteed loan bailout for building the two new Vogle reactors in Georgia.  Construction is already behind schedule and over budget.  Again, I say, if these reactors ever do come on line, the electricity they will produce will have to be subsidized by the taxpayers, just like the construction costs.



There are huge rumors about multiple nuke plant closures in the next couple of years, due to age, cost of upgrades and maintenance, and the biggest issue…their inability to economically compete with natural gas and renewables.  The exponential growth of renewables is leading to rapid deployment of thousands of megawatts of capacity in a very short space of time, and at decreasing costs.  The private sector and Wall Street are beginning to understand that here is an investment potential that is guaranteed to make money.  In the upcoming year or two, major changes will be made in how utilities set their rates for energy generation and their costs of transmission and distribution, and this will open the door to even more investment.  Very complex stuff!





On the back end of nuclear power, Fukushima continues to bewilder the industry, with new leaks of radioactive water announced just this week.  In spite of “global” help, they are still unable to come up with any methodology or technology to clean up the mess.  Current estimates are 50 years and $130 billion.  Lots of wiggle room!



In the US, a major blow to repository storage comes from the pilot plant in New Mexico, where contaminated military waste is supposedly being stored, monitored, and evaluated in the salt formation geology.  An unknown leak has released traces of plutonium up at the surface of this facility.  So much for that process of containing even more radioactive wastes for 10,000 years!



The fuel fabrication plant in South Carolina, which is supposed to convert nuclear warheads into MOX fuel, has jumped from $4 billion already spent, to over $30 billion, and years behind schedule.  Then there is the cost of retrofitting reactors to accept this type of fuel.  The hope of new small modular reactors, thorium fueled reactors, and of course, the endless supply of fusion power continue to be “holy grail” concepts that are decades away from any real commercial applications, and will ultimately be completely unaffordable.



The world is slowly begin to recognize the huge costs of nuclear wastes, with the UK estimating the decommission and cleanup of their Sellafield site at over $130 billion, Germany beginning to estimate $35 billion to cleanup their nuclear program, and Japan having no clue as to how much it will cost to eliminate their nuclear plants.  Taiwan has recently tied the opening of two new units to a complete plan as to where their wastes will go.



Interesting times, as we plod along, and keep adding new wind, solar, and other renewables to our energy mix.  Think of what we could do if the Koch brothers were in the renewable business!
















Thursday, January 23, 2014

CURRENT THOUGHTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE



A recent article in the climate debate tells us a lot.
If you actually read the article, and try to understand what it is saying, it summarizes a major point of contention between believers and deniers.
Has there has been no significant increase in temperature between 1998 and 2012?…a very complex number, based on how/where readings are taken and analyzed…surface temperature, atmospheric, ocean, polar, equator, northern-southern hemisphere…many measurement yielding a single number. 
1998 was chosen as a base-line because it was regarded as the hottest year on record.  Since the subsequent years were not hotter, the argument is that we have peaked, and things are cooling off.  Published next week, it is expected to address the fact that 1998 was the hottest year on record and world temperatures have not yet exceeded it, which scientists have so far struggled to explain.” 
One such explanation is that because of the melting polar ice caps over the last several decades…a commercial ship made it through the Northwest Passage by itself earlier in the year…the freshwater influx into the ocean has altered the dynamic of heat transfer, so the oceans have absorbed more heat than before, altering the surface global temperature readings.  “Germany called for the references to the slowdown in warming to be deleted, saying looking at a time span of just 10 or 15 years was ‘misleading’ and they should focus on decades or centuries.” 
Hence my reference…the argument now is moot.
2013 was hotter than 1998…that 14 year “cooling” trend was just a down blip in a long range, many year graph of increasing temperature data.  The report is expected to say the rate of warming between 1998 and 2012 was about half of the average rate since 1951 – and put this down to natural variations such as the El Nino and La Nina ocean cycles and the cooling effects of volcanoes.”  There is so much we do know, and so much more we do not know…the bottom line is that the earth is warming, the vast majority of scientists agree that fossil CO2 plays a large part in that, and that the impacts on climate worldwide will continue to be felt with more changes in weather patterns, more extremes in rain, snow, heat, cold, drought, flooding, sea rise, ecological succession, etc.
Why is there now a drought in California.  Here in the redwoods, we’re at 26% normal rainfall.  Meteorologists can show us satellite images of the “Polar Vortex” pushing cold moist air over the north towards the east coast, when it should be dropping moisture of the west coast.  Why?  El Nino, El Nina…all driven by ocean temperature differentials between the tropic and the polar regions…very complex stuff.  Meanwhile, California is about to ration water, farmers are worried about their crops, the wine industry is concerned about what low water will do to the years vintage; and elsewhere Australia is burning up, Canada announced that last year insurers paid out close to $3 billion for weather related damages, and the rest of the world struggles with flooding, drought, and other weather events.
Again, this is very complex and serious stuff, so I ask the question: “what if human CO2 is responsible for even more extremes in the future?”  We would have wasted a lot of time and a lot of money not making the inevitable transition to a lower carbon energy society when we had the time and money to do so.

This is a scientific dilemma, a political, economic, social and moral one as well.

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

A Welcome to 2014



I want to wish you all a very Happy New Year, and I am so optimistic about the major changes that will occur in 2014.

First, on the nuclear side…it is dead, although its tail is still waggin’.  We will finally begin to see the outrageous true costs of decommissioning and waste disposal as more plants are shut down, and the public begins to finally realize what is in store for them and their kids.  As we face those serious economic issues, more countries will also open their eyes and rethink their energy options.

Secondly, the growth of renewables will grow exponentially.  They are now so cost effective, that they are creating problems of overcapacity and loss of utilities control.  In spite of the billions spent by the “powers that be,” we will begin to address the restructuring of utilities and rates, and start to make major changes to our so out-dated grid system.  We will see breakthrough efforts in energy storage, and a whole new economic model of financing the upfront costs of all these technologies.  The ultimate “gold ring” is that the fuel is free, and its cost will not fluctuate as with other fuels; and of course this goes against every fiscal conservative economic model that we have lived with in the past.  And the price of fossil fuels will rise, as we begin to seriously adopt measures such as a carbon tax, and other climate change actions.

2014 will be a landmark year in politics, economics, energy policy, and I hope in other key social issues as well.

Happy Sunny and Windy New Year!!!!!!!!!

Friday, December 6, 2013

Beginning to Understand the TRUE Costs of Nuclear Power



Last month two major court decisions were handed down that have significant impact on the overall economics of nuclear power.  Unfortunately, this was not picked up by the mainstream news media, nor has it been fully vetted by the anti-nuclear community.



Here is some background, beginning with the 1982 Nuclear Policy Act signed by Ronald Reagan.  It said that beginning in 1998, the Federal Government (DOE) would take possession and responsibility for all high-level spent fuel from commercial nuclear power plants, and will place it in a permanent geologic repository.  Also, the utilities would contribute 1 mil ($0.001) per kilowatt/hour of nuclear generated electricity into the Nuclear Waste Fund, to pay for the building and operation of the repository.  To date, about $30 billion has been collected from nuclear utility customers for the fund.



Yucca Mountain was chosen in 1988 as the preferred site, and work began characterizing the mountain.  The law said that the geology alone should provide the isolation of the spent fuel from the environment for a minimum of 10,000 years.  In the mid-90’s, it was determined that the natural environmental conditions in the repository would interact with the heat and radiation from the fuel, and would destabilize the integrity of the storage canisters.  The repository design was then modified to allow the placement of some sort of metal “drip shields” to protect the canisters.  That was the first major problem…a metal that would avoid corrosion for 10,000 years?  After 20 years of scientific study, and about $14 billion from the fund, the inevitable “uncertainty” of Yucca Mountain to meet the isolation requirement came to light (NRC Chairwoman Alison MacFalane’s “Uncertainty Underground”), and after much legal and scientific jostling between DOE, EPA, NRC, and the state of Nevada, work was halted in 2006, and finally abandoned by President Obama in 2009.  The ultimate question of whether Yucca Mountain can serve as our repository, or whether there is anyplace else where we can technologically isolate hot, radioactive material for tens of thousands of years must be answered by science, technology,  and social morality, and not by politics.



So, what were the two court decisions?  The first dealt with DOE’s responsibility for spent fuel after the 1998 deadline was not met.  It is costing utilities somewhere between $10-15 million per year to store and safeguard the high-level waste, whether it is pools or dry cask storage.  Utilities have sued DOE saying that they should be reimbursed for this cost, since by law, DOE owns the fuel and should take care of it.  In several cases over the years, the courts have agreed.  Last month they granted Maine Yankee $35.7 million in addition to $81.7 million granted earlier in the year, for storage fees (total $117.4 million) from 1998 to 2008.  A third claim is in for 2009-12, and more claims later for 2013 to ????? “Two other New England power plants – Connecticut Yankee Atomic Power Co. and Yankee Atomic Electric Co. of Rowe, Mass. – also were awarded damages this week in the amounts of $126.3 million and $73.3 million, respectively.”   More utilities are expected to follow suit. In other words, the taxpayers are going to pay these costs and not the ratepayers who benefited from the cheap nuclear generated electricity.(1)(2)



There are major points to be gleaned from these decisions.  First, 104 nuclear power plants in the US…storage costs of $10 million/year/each…1998 to 2013…$15 billion+/- owed to the utilities by the US taxpayers????  What about 2014 to ????  We will eventually have to move all the fuel rods into dry cask storage…6000 casks at $10 million each to construct and load.  Another $60 billion????

A repository, even if we started now, wouldn’t be ready for at least another twenty years (nuclear industry best “estimate”.)  Nuclear power was supposed to be cheap, and pay for itself.  Not true!  So we have a 20 year old living in Oregon, and lucky enough to have a job, a 45 year old living in Idaho, and all the rest of the 100% Americans paying taxes that are going to pay for the storage of spent nuclear fuel at the long gone Trojan Nuclear Power Plant in Oregon, shuttered in 1993, which produced “cheap” electricity for a few, for only 15 years.  Fair??? You’d think the fiscal conservatives would be all over this.  A tax, by any other name, is still a tax. Somebody has to pay. The argument that tax dollars shouldn’t be used to help pay for health insurance or social security falls very short when in actuality, tax dollars are being used to pay the nuclear industry’s bad investments and debts.



The second court decision handed yet another economic blow to the US taxpayer.  The Nuclear Waste fund was collecting some $750 million per year earmarked for permanent storage in a repository.  Out of the $30 billion collected so far (including interest earned), about half has already been spent on a dry hole (Yucca Mountain.)  The US Court of Appeals just ruled that DOE should stop collecting that fee.  “The appeals court panel said the Energy Department failed to come up with an adequate evaluation for the waste fee…the agency’s assessment of disposal costs was “so large as to be absolutely useless to be used as an analytic technique”… Judge Silberman wrote in the seven-page decision that the department’s presentation reminded the court of a line from the musical “Chicago,” which says, “Give them the old razzle dazzle.” (3)(4) 



The fact of the matter here is that the remaining $15 billion in the fund is a mere pittance in what it will/would cost to develop a repository.  When Yucca Mountain was cancelled, the nuclear industry “estimate” for construction and operation beginning in 2030 was $95 billion.  What’s that cost going to be 30, 40, ??? years from now.  Again, the US taxpayer will be held responsible to pay the nuclear bill.  The Baby Boomers and those alive over the past 40 years have benefited from “cheap” nuclear electricity, only because they have deferred the true costs onto many, many generations of taxpayers in the future. 



What will the final price of spent fuel management be over the next 50…100 years?  $200 billion?  $500 billion?  Add to this the cost of decommissioning the 100 reactors ($2 billion + each  at today’s estimates) and the cost of cleaning up all the other components of the nuclear industry (uranium mine tailings, enrichment plants, fuel fabrication plants, etc, etc,) and we’re looking at a trillion dollars or more.  This is the “back-end” costs that very few people really understand, or are talking about.  The industry is too busy wanting to build even more plants, and pushing the continued lie that nuclear power is cheap, safe, clean, and our only energy salvation.



Once again, we’ve been had, and by the very same people who stand up and spout out that this type of “socialist” thing is fiscally unacceptable, and not fair to our children and grandchildren.  Money turns a blind eye!  Open your eyes and follow it. This whole waste issue is just beginning to come to light.  It will be interesting to see how the industry justifies its position.



  1. http://www.kjonline.com/news/Court_orders__235M_payment_for_nuclear_waste_storage.html



  1. http://www.boston.com/news/local/maine/2013/11/15/court-orders-payment-for-nuke-waste-storage/wpoLINQZR0ZzklYARmp5iM/story.html





  1. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/nuclear-power-s-750-million-reprieve-doesn-t-end-dilemma.html



  1. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/nuclear-power-s-750-million-reprieve-doesn-t-end-dilemma.html