Monday, April 15, 2019

Energy Update after the 11th Anniversary of Fukushima



Here we are, 11+ years after the nuclear disaster in Japan. In spite of billions of dollars spent, that site is continuing to accumulate millions of gallons of radioactively contaminated water in makeshift tanks and releasing both water and gaseous radioactive emissions because there is no way to contain them. The workers still can't even begin to address the melted fuel in two of the four reactors, let alone figure out what to do with it.  This site will never really be cleaned up.  Like Chernobyl, it will be somehow be entombed, monitored, and chipped away at “decommissioning.”  The total costs (economic, technical, environmental, and social) now estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars, will never be known, since all subsequent activities will take place over hundred years or more. 
Despite this, the global nuclear industry continues to push for federal tax dollars to continue the Vogle boondoggle in Georgia, extending the licensing of old plants, and lobbying the dream of new nuclear technologies that are safer, cheaper, and necessary in our coming low-carbon world.  Another of our great “hoaxes!”

Meanwhile, renewables are making great headway, in spite of the blatant lack of support by the current administration.   Just today, the White House proposed cutting the funding for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory by 70%.  Of course, Congress will not let this happen.  But all the other actions taking place in the EPA, Departments of Interior, Energy, Commerce, Housing, etc. are taking their toll in the necessary push for growth and deployment of the various renewable technologies and policies.  Individual states and businesses are addressing the obvious...renewables are cheaper, cleaner, sustainable, and most of all, local job creators.  More and more people are realizing this is not a partisan reality but is a very real benefit for our society and the world. And the lies and misinformation from the administration are being seen for what it is.

The “Green New Deal” is making incredible waves, and the old fossil guard is getting very nervous.  Several points which I believe need to be seriously addressed are:
1.     We need to understand the difference between our overall energy use and our electricity use.  The first phase of the transition is the replacement renewables for the use of fossil fuels in generating electricity.  Other fossil energy uses will be more difficult, but will eventually follow.
2.     The goal of 100% renewable energy is not very appropriate.  We can achieve a great reduction of fossil electricity, but there is no reason to exclude the use of natural gas when it is the "best" available technology for doing what needs to be done.
3.     We will most likely continue to use oil for a variety of purposes including transportation.  The amount we consume will decrease as efficiency and replacements escalate.  There probably be old Chevys on the road many years from now!
4.     The time for implementation of the lofty goals for the Green Plan (20-30 years) is misleading and misconceived.  The transition will take time, and will be guided by technology as well as social, political, and financial incentives.
5.     We cannot know what new advances and discoveries will push the implementation of current and new technologies.  Some may speed up the process, while others may need time to develop, manufacture, construct, etc.
6.     The main thing is that this new direction is the future, and we all need to understand, support, and push for its most rapid deployment.

The cost of this transition is the most misunderstood concept at this time…$95 trillion +/-, whatever.  Most of this is not “new” money that will be needed.  We already spend trillions of dollars each year on conventional energy, and the transition will just shift what technologies we demand.  Not too long ago, solar and wind were expensive compared to fossil fuels.  Expensive money was spent with the result that today, those renewables are cheaper than coal, nuclear, and oil.

What is the “true” cost?  It’s not just the cost of a solar panel vs a coal-fired plant.  The other ancillary cost to our air, water, our overall health, the degradation of land, and now most important, the real cost that climate change poses for us and future generations.  These costs are incalculable, but most certainly far more than would it would cost us if we do nothing.  The only cost issue is the decrease in profits for the entire fossil fuel industry.  We will still use energy…we most likely will require even more as time goes by, so money will be spent…just for different resources.

So many benefits and issues that need to be addressed and cover so we as a society can understand what “we” are doing.  Renewables will produce local jobs.  The cost of sunlight and wind will not fluctuate.  The development and manufacture of the various technologies will flourish with so many benefits for a sustainable world.  The Navajo Nation has abandoned its 2000+MW coal-fired plant and will not only use solar PV to provide electricity to its constituency; but will build a manufacturing facility to produce those panels, and more into the future.

The old argument that we can’t make the transition in a reasonable timeframe is again just nonsense.  The remarkable advances we see in space, automotive, communication technology can be mustered to provide the solar, wind, efficiency, and other necessary infrastructures we need.  If the enormous amount of money lobbied against renewables were to be turned around in support, it would be a no brainer!








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