2017 and the new administration is creating a Maginot Line
in the fight for clean sustainable energy in the US. Alternative facts, half truths, and deliberate misstatements have
really been with us for a long time, especially with regards to renewable energy
and its counterpart, the fossil and nuclear industries. The perceived backtrack on renewables in
favor of coal as a foundation once again in our electricity generating future
is one of the most blatant lies. The battle is coming to a head within the next
few years, as basic economics and the marketplace, and not politics, determine
the direction of electricity generation and the fuel for transportation
vehicles. These are currently the two
big users of the traditional hard energy.
Renewables are charging full speed ahead, and it’s because of
economics. Over the past few months
there have been many reports and sources documenting the exponential growth of
megawatt capacity and very large number of jobs currently in the solar and wind
sector.
For the past 20-30 years, THEY (and I’m going to lump all
the conservative economists, industry leaders, think tank analysts, and
politicians) have said solar is too expensive, and the cost of solar cells
needed to decrease to 50 cents/watt to be competitive. Today, those costs are between 25-25
cents/watt, and are continuing to decrease.
The cost of the equipment (the power plant) is decreasing, along with
the O&M (fuel, operating, and maintenance costs). Today, renewables are the cheapest path to electricity, even
without subsidies, when all the true costs are taken into account.
Here are some of those alt-truths. THEY told us that solar
panels would not last over 20 years, and thus when they were amortized over
their lifetime, they were just too expensive.
Today’s reality is that solar panels will last a long, long time. Manufacturers are warranting them for
25+years, and most say that a good panel may even last “forever” since there
are no moving parts. The framework and
glass encapsulation materials have gotten better; and as with anything, a well
made product can live up to industry expectations. If a solar array is amortized over 30-40 years, as most
industrial power plants and other facilities, the true cost is reduced. Add to that the fact that there is no fuel
cost, and that there is minimum maintenance, and the cost over that “lifetime”
is really low.
Since the sun’s energy is not available 24/7, a 33% capacity
factor is relatively valid. But what
has not been readily discussed is the value of the electricity produced during
the day, when the greatest demand (peak power) required the purchase of
expensive “peakers” electricity…usually gas fired turbines which would run for
very short periods of time during the day and throughout the year. A lot of those have a lower capacity factor;
yet they have been constructed and sit idly by. Solar is slowly surpassing the need for this expensive
electricity, as seen just recently in California where there was so much
free/solar electricity available for about six hours, resulting in a negative
price for wholesale electricity for a certain time of that day.
Renewable technology will continue to expand, with
increased efficiency, lower production costs, and new products and applications
such as Tesla’s solar roof shingles (“Would you like a roof that looks better
than a normal roof, last twice as long, cost less and by the way generates
electricity, and that’s including the labor costs and without subsidies for
solar.”) The ultimate realization that solar has minimal Operating and
Maintenance costs (fuel, maintenance, replacements, and operational labor), can
be placed literally anywhere there is a beam of sunlight, the integration of
vast new electricity storage components, and the inevitable upgrades and
modernization of the Grid, all make the future look very bright.
Of course there are many obstacles and problems ahead. Some of THEY worry that as the costs come
down, there won’t be any incentive to invest and make money. Electricity will be too cheap to meter! Some utilities continue to fight the
integration of solar into their ancient and out-dated business models. Wyoming and Indiana are trying to outlaw
solar (it is un-American, whereas coal is) by placing heavy taxes on its
production. PG&E in California is
leading the way in re-thinking, re-organizing, re-structuring it’s entire
operations…from shutting down it’s 2000MW baseload Diablo Canyon reactors, to
modernizing how available electricity is distributed from where it is produced
to where it is needed.
The bottom line is that we have reached the point TODAY
where renewables are cheaper, cleaner, afford individual freedom of choice, and
require less government regulation. It
is a shame that the greed and simple mindedness of our current political powers
are letting America’s leadership in clean sustainable energy and its economic
benefits slowly slip away. But the sun
will continue to shine and the wind will blow, and the enormous potential is
still there!
An interesting article snuck into the relatively
conservative “The Economist” last December kind of broke the old mold:
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