Susan
and I are off to the Bahamas for a week, where we hope to isolate ourselves
from the “reality” that is occurring in America and the rest of the world. As 2017 looms, interesting changes will most
probably happen in everything, especially in energy policy and deployment for
the next few years. The new
administration’s apparent rejection of climate change will have an impact on
the inevitable transition to renewables.
How much of a setback will depend on many factors. First of all, calling climate change a hoax
does not make it go away. As I said
before, the biggest “hoax” has been the deliberate suppression and obstruction
campaign hosted by Exxon, the fossil fuel industry, and the media. Eventually, the US will join the rest of the
world when the true economic, social, and political costs of ignorance and
greed overwhelm the increasing damages that will happen to the planet.
The
dream that we will go back to burning coal, and increasing our use of oil,
flows contrary to what is happening here and around the world. “The renewable train has already left the
station!” Renewables are already cheaper than most hard technologies, even
without subsidies; and the “old” jobs saved or created can’t equal the huge
potential of good, clean, local jobs.
Again, it’s a matter of who profits most…huge corporations or the 90% of
people who want to work and have a fair chance in life.
As
for the nuclear industry, things look grim, in spite of all the positive spin
being thrown out there. The
“carbon-free” advantage just went out the window. Finishing the four reactors under construction, the hope of new
small modular reactors, thorium and advanced breeders, and even fusion will
never happen because of the enormous costs associated with not just their
development, but also with their necessary infrastructure and wastes. Reprocessing is the basis of most of these
new technologies, and it is very complex and expensive in so many ways, that
without huge government subsidies, they won’t even begin to compete with the
near term development of cheaper renewable generation and storage.
Then
there is the issue of nuclear wastes. A
brief overview of some of the current issues show that costs will begin to
mount astronomically, because we really haven’t addressed them in the past. The new official Japanese government cost
estimate for Fukushima has just risen to over $178 billion, and they still
don’t know what they are going to do.
Check out the video (link below) of the new $1.5 containment structure
for Chernobyl, which should enshroud the facility for 100 years; whether any
progress on melted fuel removal occurs in that time frame is anybody’s guess,
as well as at what cost. The $2 billion
accident at the 15-year old WIPP waste site in New Mexico sends our scientists
back to the drawing board. The cleanup
of the radioactive dump in St. Louis, and the never-ending mess at Hanford,
have both been pushed forward for 40+? years.
The new interest in Yucca Mountain does not change the scientific,
technical, and social problems that need to be overcome. Europe is experiences similar economic and
technical obstacles to their nuclear programs.
In spite of the media push by the industry (the recent headlines of a
diamond/nuclear waste battery solving the waste problem is absurd), it’s the
same misinformation (post truth, or whatever you want to now call it) playing
on the emotions of the ignorant masses wanting simple solutions to very complex
and expensive problems.
On
a positive note, the Humboldt Bay Nuclear Power Plant is now in its final major
decommissioning phase. Everything above
ground has been pretty much deconstructed and trucked off to Texas and Utah.
The remaining below grade contaminated concrete reactor caisson, as well as the
soil, will be removed from a hole 120 feet in diameter, and 190 feet deep. All this will be sorted, packaged, and
shipped away. This phase will cost about $300 million, involve about 3000
truckloads to Texas, and take another 15 months to complete. Following that, final site restoration work
will begin in earnest. Surprisingly
PG&E is still near the estimated budget of $1.18 billion.
Another
bright note is that in spite of our tax dollars being spent on these fiascos,
the future of a lot of our electricity use will be dictated by businesses (like
Apple, Google, GM, Walmart, etc, who find it cheaper to generate their own
electricity), individuals who will cut into utility profits with their small
rooftop systems, the growth of local community based generation, and the huge
savings from energy efficiency. I am
fortunate to live in California, which through its example, will lead the
nation forward. There are going to be
major changes, and it’s too bad a lot of our tax dollars probably won’t be
directed to this clean, affordable, and sustainable future. As usual, I am optimistic that people will
eventually figure out that the quality of the water they drink, the air that
they breath, and the landscape they pass on to their children is worth more
than the corporate profits of the few.
It’s called a revolution, and the citizens are arming themselves in more
ways than one.
Power
to the people; and God bless America!
Just
a few:
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