Where are we going?

I read a very interesting article in The Economist on the extreme weather patterns in the southern US this year.

http://www.economist.com/node/18988878

“Between July 1st 2010 and June 30th 2011 Georgia had 9,358 wildfires—41% above the five-year average—that burned 114,578 acres. Five wildfires in south-east Georgia in late March caused $26.5m in timber losses; add to that the $68.3m in losses caused by the April tornadoes, and it has been a bad year for the timber trade.

It may stay bad for a while. In the Southern Forests Futures Project, the US Forest Service and the Southern Group of State Foresters examined how a changing climate and population pressures could affect Southern forests in the coming decades. It predicted more “major wildfire events” and longer fire seasons in the spring and autumn. Since 1970 the average temperature in the South has increased by two degrees Fahrenheit. Summer precipitation has decreased and the increase in population has put pressure on the region’s water supplies.”

There are several issues that this raises:

1. Is the weather changing? Maybe this is a freak year, and things will revert back next year and on in the future.
2. If we assume the “science” and data indicating changing patterns are correct, how do we prepare/adapt to these future events?
3. Of course, the big question: is this due to man-made global climate change due to fossil fuel burning?
4. What about the money…the economic costs of not doing anything; or the costs of doing something?

The economic impact on timber and water resources in this area of the US is significant today…not only wood production, but all the jobs associated with its industry as I have seen in my own Humboldt County. The impact on water resources, on the agriculture, on industry, on population residential and commercial development, on the creation of new jobs…all hinge on what the weather will be like in the future.

My read of what defines a “fiscal conservative” is one who is very concerned about money…they don’t want to spend any more money than they absolutely have to towards investment in the future. It is all about NOW! Less government, more personal freedoms, let people do their own thing with minimum interference from anyone else.

So how does that work for the realities of today? What do you do to adapt to tomorrow’s future? Do you think about it? Do you worry about it? Do you see our society working towards the good of the society? What if man made global climate change is real? Do we invest money now to minimize it, or does society pay the cost in the future with loss of resources, jobs, industry, etc.

I guess it makes me sad that our politics today is being blind-sided by the fiscal conservatives. Their political debate is not about what is best for society, but what their money can buy in terms of tax cuts, getting rid of environmental and true fiscal regulation, and basically taking away more personal freedoms by creating new “moral” regulations dealing with women’s reproductive rights and citizen’s sexual preferences.

America is truly past its prime, and is descending down to a second-world country…not quite third-world yet…but we are approaching third-world status like Nigeria, Egypt, Sierra Leone…where there is enormous wealth accumulated by the top 1-2%, who control the politics in their favor through corruption and bribery, and the majority of citizens struggle just to survive a “comfortable?” lifestyle. Meanwhile, our infrastructure of roads, bridges, water systems, utilities, transportation, police and fire protection, libraries…our whole education system degrades to something like that in Sub-Saharan Africa.

I am sad…I think of my father-in-law who fought in WWII; who hardly ever ate rice…”I fought a war so we wouldn’t have to eat that stuff!” Today, even in America, there are many people who would love a good bowl of rice to eat…maybe even with a little chicken thrown into the pot.

Fair and Balanced News?

For years, I have long-stated the dangers of the “new” media, such as the “fair and balanced” Fox News, brainwashing the public with opinion, rather than news; and often with downright lies. The Murdoch scandal is beginning to bring all this to the light.

For example, “…by a voice vote, the House just passed a “light bulb ban” amendment to the 2012 Energy and Water Appropriations Act (HR 2354). The amendment, offered by climate denier Rep. Michael Burgess (R-TX), prohibits spending to enforce the incandescent lighting efficiency standards in the 2007 energy law signed by President George W. Bush.”

Leading the charge to justify the cause with the public is the misinformation, distortions, and lies by the conservative right media, namely Fox News.

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/07/19/272195/murdoch-conservative-media-misled-light-bulb-consumers/

Twenty years ago, one of my homework assignments to my students was a comparison between a 100 watt incandescent light bulb, costing 60 cents, and a “new” compact fluorescent bulb costing $20. For those that could do the math, the savings in dollars and energy (kwh) were almost 8x for 10,000 hours of light. Today, those efficient CF bulbs sell for less than a dollar each. The big issue back then was the initial high cost of the technology…the grumblings were “nobody would buy a $20 bulb, it doesn’t work right, we’ll never figure it out”…on and on…the same issues facing most renewables even today…high up front costs, but low production costs after the initial investment, resulting in much more money saved over time. But fiscal conservatives don’t get this. Their mantra is make the most money you can NOW…an investment with a payback over two years is not good “business.” Historically, technology has a tendency to come down in price as use and demand for the product increases…like computers, cell phones, digital cameras, etc.

This is basic energy efficiency…the cheapest way to make more electricity available for new/other uses, without new generation. It is much cheaper than building a new nuke! However, the real fiscal conservatives are afraid to embrace common sense energy efficiency. It hurts the big fossil fuel industries and their profits.

“For a list of inane pro-pollution GOP amendments the House will vote on see TP Green. Rep. Sandy Adams (R-FL) has an amendment “to prohibit websites that teach children about energy efficiency.” We don’t need no education!”

Another misnomer in the lighting bill is that we would all be forced to buy expensive LED lights...not true. Yes, LEDs right now are expensive, due to the fact that they run on DC voltage; but in time these super-efficient bulbs will come down in price. There are many lighting options available to us today that that are cheap, save energy (I guess we should emphasis saving MONEY), and play into the whole debate on electricity generation, CO2, pollution, and on and on.

Who is in charge? Who is responsible? Who is making decisions and “buying” their political and material philosophy?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/phone-hacking/8647802/Rupert-Murdoch-I-do-not-accept-responsibility-for-wrongdoing-at-News-of-the-World.html

A Few Observations

The records keep coming…heat, cold, snow, rain, drought, floods, fires, food prices…you name it. Quite a year. If this is due to nature…wow, she sure is fighting the infection of “humanity.” If this is due to fossil

CO2,, then we might be able to moderate the highs and lows. When the $$$s become significant, even the “fiscal Republicans” will figure this out.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/17/opinion/sunday/17drought.html?_r=2

http://www.omaha.com/article/20110713/NEWS01/707139880/1003452

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43790899/ns/weather/

http://theenergycollective.com/gulledge/60496/pew-center-scientific-american-team-explain-climate-change-extreme-weather-link

Just a small peek into the “dumbing down” of America:

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/07/18/271874/news-corp-scandal-fox-news-wall-street-journal/

http://thinkprogress.org/media/2011/07/18/271534/while-palin-documentary-flops-fox-touts-packed-theaters/

And finally…too bad this country is “broke.” As Mr. Boner said, “we have a spending problem, not a revenue problem.”

http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2011/07/18/271513/29-companies-more-cash-than-treasury/

July 11 Update

Soon, the Blue Ribbon Panel will release it’s suggestions for dealing with high level nuclear wastes. One of the touted solutions is “reprocessing.” I’ve already addressed the issue stating that it would be a huge economic, technical, and environmental folly. It would not SOLVE the waste issue, but simply move (recycle) the most dangerous parts all around the country; would create 6x more waste volume in the form of liquids, which would have to be solidified (vitrified) and then disposed of in a repository; and would require all new types of reactors, many reprocessing and vitrification plants, an enormous transportation methodology to move this stuff all around the country…all technologically very complex, and most importantly, very, very expensive, committing us and many future generations to this nuclear insanity.

Just a sample of what this would involve…"the vitrification plant being constructed at Hanford to treat the liquid reprocessing wastes is 20 years behind schedule, 55% complete, 80% designed!, and current cost of over $12 billion." Heaven forbid that anyone raise issues about all this…there’s big money being made here!

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-adv-nuclear-whistleblower-20110705,0,6189137.story

"The $12.2 billion Waste Treatment Plant, or vitrification plant, was not designed to treat the entire 56 million gallons of Hanford radioactive and chemical waste stored in underground tanks"…another plant will have to be built! Remember, the plant itself becomes radioactive and has a defined life expectancy and will have to be decommissioned. We’ll have to build another plant to deal with the wastes from the first…then another…and another…!!!!!!!! Great for the nuclear industry!

http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2011/07/10/1561678/delay-proposed-in-work-to-treat.html#ixzz1RoNXGLU4

And here’s the nuclear renaissance in full swing…"Georgia Power officials told state regulators they never would have started to build a new multi-billion-dollar nuclear power plant (which the government is paying $8 billion) if they knew the company might be on the hook for certain potential cost overruns. They are responsible for $6.1 billion of the $14 billion project. Should their costs grow to $7 billion, Georgia Power wouldn’t earn below a 10.25 percent return on its investment from this project. The current rate of return on investment is set at 11.15 percent." Pretty good return in today’s economy…ratepayers and taxpayers paying for this “cheap” electricity, so the CEOs can make their million dollar bonuses.

http://www.ajc.com/business/georgia-power-trashes-regulatory-1002116.html

Things have not improved in Japan. The government is now admitting that it will take decades to deal with the reactors…just to bring them under control and cold shutdown. I doubt if they will ever be fully decommissioned.

http://in.news.yahoo.com/fukushima-cleanup-decades-japan-204043882.html

The full economic and social impacts are yet to be quantified and addressed.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303365804576435023509482808.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

Meanwhile, the transition is slowly moving along. Too bad our illustrious government, s so concerned with fiscal responsibility, job creation, and national security hasn’t pushed for more investment in this direction.

http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2011/07/renewable-power-booms-in-developing-world-as-it-tops-nuclear-in-the-us.ars?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss

I always thought that national involved running the government for the “good of the people.” Shouldn’t the priority today be creating jobs, preserving our constitutional freedoms, working for the best interests of the “people?”

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2011/07/10/264799/mcconnell-admits-defeating-obama-is-gops-%E2%80%98single-most-important%E2%80%99-goal/

Power to the people! Viva la revolucion! Zito America! Spoken like a true Greek!

New Step in Renewables

Finally, we’re starting to get a level playing field for renewables. Here, the Feds are guaranteeing loan payments of around $3m/MW for solar development. These 1300MW total projects will be built and completed by 2015, and since there has not been a history of cost overruns, delays, etc, they will probably come on line and produce electricity; and the loans will most likely be paid back. Not much too it…one component fails…replace it while the rest work. No major threats to security, environment, public health. Creates local jobs.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304450604576417733588446512.html

Compare this to the $3m/MW loan guarantees to build the two 1100MW reactors in Georgia…they are already behind schedule, already over budget, probably won’t be completed before 2018 at the earliest, may or may not run depending on the cost of the electricity they produce, no accounting for the future decommissioning and waste disposal costs, no accounting for the security, safety, and anti-terrorism costs, no accounting for the money Georgia ratepayers are already paying for all this, chances are there will be some default…and a whole lot of other issues. The dollars will play themselves out…renewables will win…it’s just common sense. And here it's a start.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/17/business/energy-environment/17nukes.html

A threat to America?

http://www.click2houston.com/news/28401780/detail.html

We know it all?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304887904576395580035481822.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_business

Big business as usual?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/30/british-government-plan-play-down-fukushima

It’s the same here, except we condone these actions and bail them out!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/elaborate-ruse-behind-vast-kabul-bank-fraud/2011/06/30/AGL3bmsH_story.html

It’s all about the money!