Response to My Friend on Subsidies

Your article on wind energy in the Netherlands was interesting. I scanned it, and accidentally deleted it, and can’t seem to find it again via my searches., but as I recall, it shows the complexity of the technology…economics, resource availability, grid integration, environmental impact, etc…all things that have to be/will be sorted out in the future. The same is true of the complexity of nuclear power…construction costs, safe operation, decommissioning, waste storage, contaminated support infrastructure, etc. Right now the high subsidies are what has been in place for years…that can/will change. What is the true cost of any energy resource…oil depletion allowance, federal land leases, gas subsidies, solar subsidies…they all have required/will continue to require some government support…even the hugely profitable oil industry.

The point I’ve been making for many years is that Renewables, with all their unique aspects and problems, are consistently coming down in price. Wow! That should be startling news to any fiscal conservative. Oil was $30/bbl ten years ago, and now it has stayed around $90. Nuclear construction costs were $3-4 million/MW, and now around $8 million. Solar was $5/w and now around $1. Wind is experiencing the same Moore’s Law effect…the more we build, the more we learn how to make the technology better and cheaper. (Computers, cell phones, TVs, iPads, etc)

So it is a shame that we can’t compete in the technology that we invented. I blame that on the poor (deliberate) POLICY this country has thrown at the whole renewable energy industry for the past 30 years.

Fortunately, the rest of the world (China) will lead and benefit, as we soon add imported solar dollars to our imported oil outlay.

Pretty amazing when your product can’t compete with new and better technology.

http://news.yahoo.com/ldk-solar-reports-3q-loss-solar-prices-decline-162048454.html

This is true for the wind industry as well.

http://bnef.com/PressReleases/view/172

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/23/us-energy-iea-renewables-idUSTRE7AM0OV20111123

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/11/22/374779/solar-asia-booms-china-installs-surpass-america/

Your concern about tariffs and subsidies…ie. taxes…what about this:

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=227898

And remember, when we discuss the true (real) price of energy, we need to consider all the components.

http://www.offshorewind.biz/2011/11/23/the-netherlands-positive-ecological-impact-of-offshore-wind-turbines/

the transition is not going to be easy, and will take many years of hits and misses. It would be a whole lot easier if common sense were to prevail, rather than the greedy power plays that the energy industries have thrown in the way of development.

2016 seems to be a landmark year…I will get my steak dinner because there will be no new nuclear generation in the US, and that industry will be on its last leg because of economics.

Thoughts on a Tuesday Morning

As the debate as to whether human induced fossil carbon is responsible for global climate change goes on and on, here are just a few current observations. Again, I question “What IF the current climate change is human induced, and could be/could have been moderated, but is/was not because of ignorance, greed, and manipulation of facts by both sides.” The financial, environmental, and physical impacts for future generations will be greatly determined by our actions and inactions.

Some “information” from one side. (Go to Fox News for the opposing views)

We are spending a lot of money on extreme weather related events; not only here, but throughout the world. Will this get worse?

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/11/07/363487/a-new-record-14-us-billion-dollar-weather-disasters-in-2011/

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/11/02/MNFR1LP1JE.DTL

Can we do anything about this? YES! However, it would require a major shift in political and economic power…it’s all tied in to the “Occupy“ movement, and a break from the stranglehold some of the 1%ers have on American and global politics.

One of my “heros” is Amory Louvins, a man the “right” has always hated because he is/has been so right! “His Rocky Mountain Institute just released it’s latest book, Reinventing Fire, which provides a “grand synthesis” of decades-long research on how to create a profitable transition from a fossil fuel-based economy to an efficient, clean energy economy by 2050 that is 150% bigger than today — with no major technological breakthroughs and no major act of Congress.” Pretty grand scheme…even if we achieved one-third of that goal…..

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/11/08/355022/podcast-amory-lovins-reinventing-fire/

I spent the last 40 years of my life actively reading, teaching, and ultimately believing that the alternative sustainable economy is not only possible, but also inevitable. It is all based on politics, and determined by who controls the political process. The “Solyndra” scandal is a classic example of what is going on. “Solyndra’s failure was actually caused by technological success: the price of solar panels is dropping fast, and Solyndra couldn’t keep up with the competition.” Yet, this is seen as an indictment on all solar power.

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/11/07/362705/krugman-solar-power/

I am encouraged that times are changing at a very dramatic pace.

For more info from the other side, tune into the Kock brothers, Exxon, et.al., via Fox News, Rush, Glenn, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann. and all the other fine upstanding intelligent “leaders” in the political debate.

Meanwhile, Krugman sums it up nicely, as I see it…”Let’s face it: a large part of our political class, including essentially the entire G.O.P., is deeply invested in an energy sector dominated by fossil fuels, and actively hostile to alternatives. This political class will do everything it can to ensure subsidies for the extraction and use of fossil fuels, directly with taxpayers’ money and indirectly by letting the industry off the hook for environmental costs, while ridiculing technologies like solar. So what you need to know is that nothing you hear from these people is true. Fracking is not a dream come true; solar is now cost-effective. Here comes the sun, if we’re willing to let it in.”

Thoughts in early

A Digital Future

Some interesting things going on...

http://www.care2.com/greenliving/cutting-edge-green-building-technologies.html

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/11/02/BUA41LP7D0.DTL

Technology and human inventiveness doesn't sit still. It sure helps if there is "encouragement" in whatever form to push it along.

This is the crux of where we are today...as stated in the video, we are at the beginning of the shift from analogue to digital...in everything. "We're going from Ipads to Ihouses!"

The "old guard" is resisting the transition for fear of losing control, power, money, ideology. We have the wealth to push the change, but lack the political leadership to do so. There is no real technological "old guard" in China, hence they are moving ahead.

We're pre-occupied with the Solyndra bankruptcy...maybe it was the same executives who ran General Motors a few years ago....

"Occupy the world!" It is going to be a very interesting next 12 months... for the US and the rest of the world...after all, the world is flat!

An encouraging site:

http://future360.tv/

Beautiful warm sunny day here in Humboldt County...thank God for that global warming.