Friday, October 18, 2024

PRE-ELECTION BLUES

 PRE-ELECTION BLUES

In keeping with the current trend of fake news, half-truths, misstatements, and actual lies, the nuclear industry has been aggressively pushing media coverage on several fronts for its struggle to survive.  Once again, it is claiming that the “new” nuclear plants will be safe, cheap, clean, and necessary for our survival.  The two main hurdles they gloss over are a) the 5, 10, 20+ year time it will take before these small modular reactors can be constructed and deployed to make any difference.  Not a single plant has been constructed, tested, and licensed to go into commercial operation.  They admit that it will be 8-10+ years before that benchmark is met. b) the actual cost well into the future for their construction, supply chain, fuel, and regulatory obstacles these hundreds of small modular reactors (SMRs) will need before we see any actual benefit.  Historically, the industry has an appalling track record living up to its rosy projections.

 The “old” technology Vogtle nuclear units came online this year, 18 years after they were proposed, and $25billion over budget.  They say the “new” technology will be different.  Don’t hold your breath, and keep an eye out on your pocketbook!  Two very recent announcements have startled the energy community.  Bill Gates, who is aggressively funding a small company building SMRs, has proposed restarting the old shutdown reactor at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania.  Microsoft would buy the electricity for its expanding data centers, although it is unclear how that would impact the public grid.  The utility says it will need to invest $1.6+billion to restart it, most of which will come from government “loans” and subsidies.  Interestingly, he seems to be hedging his $1billion investment in TerraPower, which is building a SMR prototype in Wyoming.  Either way, it is large amounts of money invested in projected power needed in the future.  The other startling news is that Google is doing just about the same thing, and Amazon’s investment in a SMR company that says they will have 5000MW online by 2039.  To do that, they would have to build about 60 of their small 80MW reactors, none of which has been built or even tested to date. Really?!!! Whether this all works out for them is a gamble that they can afford to take today, because they have a lot of money, and they risk putting up a small amount hoping that the public coffers will come up with the bulk of cash. This is the same old propaganda, hoping to keep the nuclear dreams alive because, in truth, renewables are cheaper today, and will more than out-compete nuclear in the future.  With an aggressive political will and investment today in renewables, in the manufacturing and deployment of just today’s technology, coupled with serious hydrogen storage, we can meet our future needs without nuclear’s long lead time, enormous expense, and other infrastructure problems. That momentum is now building. The same obstacles face the even “newer” nuclear FUSION.  Time, cost, infrastructure, fuel, etc., are/will be overwhelming, but the industry hopes to have the public continue to pick up the tab! Promises, promises!

The other unsolvable but un-talked-about issue is nuclear waste.  All nuclear technology produces radioactive nuclear waste which must be stored and safeguarded forever.  There is no other solution. Because of its radioactivity, it is not benign and continually emits radiation and heat.  No way around it! It eventually decays, but takes hundreds to thousands of years. It may be a small amount of our technological waste stream, but it is very dangerous and expensive to deal with. SMR and fusion will produce radioactive wastes which will be added to the stockpile, which is today costing us hundreds of millions of dollars a year just to sit on it and watch it.

 Meanwhile, renewables are continuing their exponential growth around the world, as well as here in the US.  600 GW of solar (600,000MW) was added in 2024 globally, and wind added 95GW.  Impressive, but a long way to go. The US currently has about 1200GW of generating capacity and added 33GW solar in 2023. The political obstacles continue as the mega-energy industry persists with its political clout to stifle renewables development.  A 1.8-megawatt (MW) school rooftop solar array, the largest in Virginia, is now online, powering the school during the day when it has the greatest demand.  In California, Gov. Newsom just vetoed a bill that would have made it easier for school districts to install rooftop solar. The reason, school districts already get a break in their electricity, and California has TOO MUCH solar that impacts the grid. The latest PG&E residential cost for electricity is $0.48/kwh off-peak, and $0.59/kwh during peak.  Just announced that a new rate hike will go into effect before Christmas.  And PG&E wants to accept a $1.5billion loan (which ratepayers will eventually pay back) to keep Diablo Canyon online for an additional 5 years.  That money instead could go a long way in building manufacturing facilities for hydrogen electrolyzers, fuel cells, microgrids, and more renewables to support them. 

 Hydrogen production and use is really starting to take off.  It obviously is in its early stages, but growth in technology and applications is expanding exponentially.  The daily reports coming out are rather mindboggling, although very little is picked up by the mainstream media.

 For example, A United States firm has made an ambitious plan to construct an $8 billion hydrogen-powered off-grid data center in Texas.  Microsoft has just embarked on an ambitious pilot project in Dublin, aiming to use green hydrogen to power one of its data centers, replacing traditional diesel-powered backup generators with eco-friendly hydrogen fuel cells. China built a plant for $71M, which will produce 1GW of hydrogen per year.  An exciting project that made it to page 9 on the SF Chronicle highlighted a micro-grid project in Calistoga to provide 8.5MW of backup power using hydrogen when the grid goes down, which is common in this wealthy wine-growing community that had major fires over the past few years.  PG&E is obviously aware of this potential, but still clings to the nuclear option for rate-payer dollars.

 A lot hinges on the upcoming election.  A Democratic win will propel us into the future, while Republicans, with their climate denial and fossil/nuclear agenda, will set us back years.  In a way, it may not all matter, because CLIMATE CHANGE is already having severe impacts far beyond polar bears stranded on ice floes, rising sea levels, hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, fires, and ice storms...it is the impacts that these increasingly more extreme events are having on our economic and social fabric both here and around the world.  Science has repeatedly warned us that the “changes” will continue to become more extreme.  Even if we were to do everything we need to do right now, there would be a lag time in slowing down the enormous environmental global changes.  Climate change will continue to create hardships for billions of people and dramatically change society and civilization in ways we cannot imagine.  In my years, I am proud that I have done what I could to fight ignorance and stupidity.  I am now content to sit back, play some music, visit with good friends, treasure our environment, and bask in the sun!

 Just a tiny sample of what’s going on:

 https://www.ci.calistoga.ca.us/home/showpublisheddocument/40745/638593306043230000

 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/artin-energy-secures-monumental-25-131600667.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 https://www.huffpost.com/entry/amazon-google-nuclear_n_670ff7e5e4b0b6831a117014?utm_source=pocket_shared

 https://www.huffpost.com/entry/climate-catastrophe-republicans_n_64bef47de4b0dcb4cab9ff9a

 https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16112023/fifth-national-climate-assessment-regional-impacts/

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, July 10, 2024

IN THE HEAT OF THE SUMMER 2024

 

It’s been a while, and I just need to organize my thoughts as we face a most critical crossroad for the future of America and the world.  It all boils down to Climate Change!  We’ve been aware of it for quite some time, and as predicted, the changes and impacts are escalating at an exponential rate.  Record heat, countless tornados, massive hurricanes, record flooding, enormous wildfires, even shark attacks…these are just a few of the manifestations of what is going with temperature changes in our atmosphere, our oceans, and our land. We focus on the U.S., but this is happening all over the globe.  Our politicians, money powers, and other “leaders” still don’t get it, or are too ignorant to understand the huge impacts now coming to our economy, environment, infrastructures, and most important to all the people who will be directly affected.  The progressives…politicians, environmental organizations, and everyone else who can…  should be shouting it out, rather than continuing with fear that the opposition will attack them saying there is no proof, it’s all just a hoax.  Tell it like it is, instead of naming it an existential threat, which most people don’t understand.  Buy TV ads, hold press conferences, stage demonstrations...be a real thorn in the side of the powers that be so the issues cannot be avoided. 

 A most sobering fact is that regardless of what we decide to do right now will not lessen or correct the changes for many years to come.  The time lag for solutions to begin to work gives us little hope for a return to normal.  Society, with its ever-increasing population and affluence, will suffer from changes in food production, potable water scarcity, land degradation, and more importantly the social repercussions that will come from increased migration and immigration, homelessness, poor nutrition and disease, and ultimately social decay and war.  Like the fall of the many empires throughout history, the fall of this capitalistic empire looms over the next few decades.  It’s not the end of the world, but the end to the overconsuming and unsustainable lifestyle we have created. I have always been an optimist, and devoted my learning and teaching to make people think about all the things that impact them.  I am now resigned to sit back, watch and ponder.  The world will not end, but the uncountable impacts of climate change will alter the lives of every person and all living organisms.

 Now, back to what has always been my main interest and passion...renewable energy vs nuclear power.  I am gratified that I have been on the right side of history leading into the future, since renewable, mainly solar and wind, are making a huge surge in our energy mix.  Despite the continued efforts by the energy powers (fossil fuel and nuclear industries) the growth in clean sustainable energy production surges ahead not only here, but worldwide.  Just in the last few years, the world has become aware of Hydrogen, and its unlimited potential as an energy carrier and storage medium.  A wide range of systems are being developed worldwide using renewables to split water and store that energy in Hydrogen.  All this is in its infancy, but the technology is moving rapidly, as nations move to free themselves from the economic, political, and environmental addiction to fossil fuels. My dream is on its way to becoming a reality.  I can’t really keep up with all the daily developments and technological advances, but the world and its forward thinkers see the economic as well as the carbon-free advantages of Hydrogen as the ultimate energy product eventually replacing coal, oil, and natural gas.  A few recent tidbits of what’s going on are listed below...check them out...pretty exciting.

 Of course, the other hoax (this one is real) is that nuclear power will be the major energy source of the future.  The industry is spending millions and millions of dollars pushing its propaganda that the new generation of nuclear power plants will be cheaper, safer, and carbon-free.  I guess we have to wait another 10 years to see if the first plant that is built will actually work!  The nuclear industry will continue to suck our dollars as their product dies a slow economic death.  Hydrogen will bury them, because it can be made anywhere from renewables and can be developed to scale for local needs, as well as be exported as an economic commodity like oil today to where ever the need is.  The same holds true for another hoax... fusion power.  Even when the fusion reaction is contained, building a very complex and expensive reactor to boil water will never compete with Hydrogen and renewables.

 One last piece of this energy quandary is the infamous electricity grid.  Our centralized system consisted of large power plants producing large amounts of electricity, and distributing it via a massive number of wires to consumers throughout the country.  This allowed for ownership and control of our energy system by a handful of utilities and companies, regulated by a handful of government bodies.  The original idea was to supply cheap and affordable electricity to everyone, regardless of where they lived. This worked pretty well until climate change, the availability of fuel, and the introduction of renewables started to upset the cart.  The grid is old and requires billions of our dollars to be upgraded to meet current and increasing demands.  The energy industry wants so keep its tight control over everything because of the enormous profits generated.  It is threatened by the decentralized model proposed so many years ago…to generate power with whatever local resources are available, and minimize constructing huge power plants.  Renewables and Hydrogen endanger the model.  Examples include the Texas grid now being impacted by the changing climate forces of heat, ice, wind, and flooding.  Here in California, fires are forcing the undergrounding of large transmission lines, and the record heat is currently requiring mandatory blackouts because the grid can’t deliver the necessary electricity.  The system is stressed not because there is too little generation, but there is too much solar electricity available during the day.  The nuclear units at Diablo Canyon cannot be ramped up or down as need be, but must run at full power.  A lot of solar electricity is being wasted!  The PUC has adopted radical new rules limiting how much new solar will be allowed, and who can produce it.  The answer of course is Hydrogen.  Use the excess solar electricity to produce Hydrogen which can be stored and used to produce electricity when needed.  We need to encourage the installation of more solar not only in industrial fields, but on residences, commercial rooftops, and the vast potential lands and spaces in every community.  Solar is not mutually exclusive, and can in many cases improve what goes on beneath them.  California is looking at installing solar over the canals that carry water from the north to the thirsty south, reducing evaporation along the way.

 The narrow thinking of the energy powers is again evident in the current planning for the large offshore windfarm proposed for Humboldt County.  Rather than being innovative and forward thinking (as Humboldt County has usually been) the plan is to spend billions of dollars on a major grid upgrade to ship the electricity 300 miles south where it will then join the main California grid.  What we should be doing is attracting companies to install production facilities for Hydrogen here, where it can be used locally (our power plant is gas fired!) and by the time the wind turbines are incrementally constructed, there will be a wide global demand for Hydrogen which can then be exported as a value-added cash commodity (like our timber products and other valuable resources.)  It is a complex issue, but one needs to follow the politics and money to understand how and why decisions are made.

 Enough!  I could go on and on as to the “value” of renewables and Hydrogen, but I am now content to sit back , enjoy life, and watch the progress made both here and abroad.  In our recent trip to Europe, I saw a Toyota Mirai taxicab…a nice looking ordinary car.  It was a Hydrogen-fuel cell powered vehicle.  Just one tiny use we’ll see in the future!  Meanwhile, let the fusion-power of the sun continue to shine!

 There is so much good news coming out daily on renewables, nuclear, and Hydrogen.  Here is just a sample of a few recent ones.

 

Arizona, of all places.  They do have a lot of sun, and access to all the solar being installed in Mexico.

https://www.nikolamotor.com/tre-fcev

 https://getpocket.com/read/351p3Td5Aa3b6dF20gg0799bb0d6A4d15a7Od9L14aXT78i333044RtOq67OF666_76a9ac0147f4791aaa5529f241e0be16

 https://getpocket.com/read/bd2d4p41T3fI8g400gAe877t78gGT38emYOo1fg2f4d8cUw439c90ia9z18TNH40_d58aca12457a7abf1041398af2aff3a9

 Great stuff happening all over the world.

https://siriusjet.com/

 Real impacts just beginning.

https://apnews.com/us-news/heat-waves-wildfires-general-news-bc550167983c375f06239d6605f8ac5e?user_email=b4e3751e96120e6736c651b71e71d5ef86f5d03748a1fc5990fe2ca6e1147b2b&utm_medium=Morning_Wire&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=Morning%20Wire_10%20July_2024&utm_term=Morning%20Wire%20Subscribers

 Don’t hold your breath.

https://getpocket.com/read/8a5pcT98A9e3ed9cqXgd410b99d1A5d56a9OOuv3cUZ432X058c4bfD7G84DR0g6_e73ed99af89ca6f9017a349f21ca8cc3

 It’s the grid stupid!

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2024/05/17/clean-energy-keeps-exceeding-californias-grid-demand/