THE
NEW GREEN ERA
Just a few days after the historic inauguration, I am
still in ecstasy, because we now have a new direction in addressing our energy,
environmental, and economic problems. We
will shift away from fossil fuels, and continue the transition to renewables
and sustainability. This move has
already enjoyed incredible success, despite the many political and economic
hurdles thrown at it. The progression to
a renewable electric future is going to zoom forward in the following
years. The main reason is $$$$!!!! The
driving force of our society! I
predicted many years ago to my students that the tiny CO2 molecule will alter
our civilization into a new age---a renewable, cleaner, and more sustainable
age. Just common sense. We now have the potential political will and
the economic means for investments to make it happen, not only here in the US,
but around the globe.
We were told so many times and in so many ways that
renewables (and I’ll focus here on solar) were way too expensive, which is no
longer true. Almost all new generation
capacity in the past few years has been solar PV, mainly large MW projects, out-competing
coal, nuclear, and in many ways edging out natural gas. My two solar systems
returned 10% and 20% this last year…tax-free!! My contractor said if the last
system I installed was configured today, the return would be closer to 30%! A
3-4 year payback, if that’s how some people understand investments. Large projects will continue; but we will also
see a new focus on existing solar windows…rooftops, parking lots, commercial
buildings and facilities…so many potential sites, which do not need to be
dedicated just to producing energy, but multiple uses are not mutually
exclusive.
The biggest driving force is all the new technology
and development of electricity storage.
Massive battery systems are popping up all over the world, driven by all
the research and progress being made by Tesla, VW…pretty much all the major
auto manufacturers, as well as many small new startups. The Moss Landing
gas-steam 800+MW plant I remember just south of San Francisco was closed a few
years ago and replaced by more efficient gas engines, like at Humboldt
Bay. Now, there is a major battery
storage system built on site. I will use
the power that’s generated there, as well excess power from the grid during the
day, and supplying electricity in that time when renewables aren’t
available…using the existing grid infrastructure. (6) The same thing is happening in retired power
plant sites all over the world.
But the “big future” is in Hydrogen, which I’ve touted
for so many years. Below are just a few
of the hundreds of references I’ve come across in the past few months. No longer falling on deaf and dumb ears, this
future is going to make a lot of money for companies and investors, because it
is not just one company or one technology, but all the necessary supportive
infrastructure which is spread out over R&D, manufacturing, deployment,
employment…huge transformation and potential for jobs and investment to our
economy. All the optimistic studies,
reports, etc. over all the years have been correct…they were squashed by the
lies and political manipulation of the fossil fuel industry. Things have changed. Of course, we will
continue to use fossil fuels when/where they are appropriate and cost-effective,
and it will take time to make necessary changes. We’ll see how new carbon capture technologies
progress, making useful purposes for the CO2 waste product. Our incredible science and technology are on
the verge of incredible findings, now that we are getting back to realizing and
trusting their incredible potential. There are so many people anxious to use
their minds without being stifled by government and big business. Money to be made…jobs…!!!
Then there is the nuclear industry, stuck with a
dinosaur technology. Most of the
existing nuclear plants will be retired in the next couple of decades, despite
license extensions. They are too
expensive to run cost-effectively, and of course, they continue to generate
wastes for which we have no solutions, other than to pay a lot of money to
securely store and monitor them. The
industry touts the new cheaper and safer small modular reactors, a few which
are about to leave the drawing boards and be constructed to see if/how they
will work. (2) Supposedly, these SMR could be manufactured in a factory (sort
of like PV modules) and then shipped and assembled on site. Of course, they will still need heat
exchangers, steam generators, turbines, generators, cooling water, a supply of
enriched uranium fuel, and the never mentioned means to deal with both the
high-level and low-level nuclear wastes.
Hell of a way to boil water! A lot of research has recently produced
solar technologies capable of producing the high-temperature needs of the
steel, cement, and other industries. The
nuke industry touts it is carbon-free…again, a misstatement…actually a
lie. The entire nuclear fuel cycle is
enormously energy-intensive, producing lots of CO2. There is also a lot of buzz about nukes
producing Green Hydrogen! Another false hope for the industry is new advanced
reactors which use plutonium as their main fuel, recycling high-level nuclear
waste. This requires reprocessing, which
is a technological and economic nightmare, and will not play any kind of a role
in our energy needs. The Hanford
Vitrification Plant, 17 years under construction, and over budget to the tune of
$17 billion, is supposed to soon come online.
This one plant was built just to take the 56 million gallons of
reprocessing wastes left over from bomb building and now in tanks, and
solidifying them into glass logs. It
will take 30+ years and cost ??$$ to operate.
It will not reduce any of the radioactivity it is dealing with…it will
just put them into a solid form. Those
glass logs will then be added to the spent fuel assemblies that are currently
being store in pools or dry casks.
Reprocessing creates many more problems than what the industry purports
it solves. All the nuclear ideas, such
as thorium reactors, have not been proven commercially economical or even
feasible off the planning board. And
they all produce high-level wastes!!! Of course, that is never addressed, or
given lip service. There is no solution
to nuclear waste!
The industry has been recently touting the progress of
fusion for potentially giving us unlimited energy. Another hoax! Even if the astronomical
problems are solved, it will be many years before commercial development; and
even fusion produces a variety of nuclear wastes. It is not as clean as spouted. I support a
lot of different scientific research which, in reality, has no real value to me
or the 99% of our global population…fusion, rockets to Mars, underwater
cities…they allow for the accumulation of scientific knowledge which in the big
picture has true value. Fusion power may
someday become a reality; but it suffers the same problems fission power
faces…enormous infrastructure, technical complexity, unknown high cost, and it
DOES produce radioactivity and radioactive wastes. We already have a fusion reactor that works
very well, is clean, sustainable, technologically useful, job-producing, and
FREE…it’s called the SUN!
As our civilization transitions from a hunter-gatherer
society (I found it…that’s my oil…keep your hands off it!) to a harvester
society (capturing the appropriate renewable resource, storing it for times of
need, and sharing it with whatever needs and demands.)
This is a major transition that will occur over
TIME. The complexity of this change lies
in that there is no one thing, no silver bullet, no single technology; but an
incredible variety of resources, supply, demand, and efficient use. What is evident today is the enormous amount
of money going into renewables, encouraging the incredible human ingenuity in
our scientific and technologic spheres to bring on spectacular innovations and changes
that will make for a more sustainable and just planet.
Enough for now, since I could go on and on! I will soon continue my blog with examples of
all the new exciting ideas and projects that are now seeing the light of day.
Here are a few references for the above:
1.
https://watershedsentinel.ca/articles/mini-nukes-dirty-and-dangerous/?fbclid=IwAR14eIaY3jwgq2nrU5bIVuT9nkJCr1RJuRjRVer90uF0wbw_dm34xh9wwdM
2.
https://www.powermag.com/doe-rolls-out-nuclear-innovation-blueprint-ahead-of-biden-administration-takeover/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiT0dWaFlUUm1PR1JtTUdSayIsInQiOiJnZ3FrNHl6azZkTjBPa0U3K3pQSURaQkZEWmk4NURUSStsS3BCNTlTZjhWVVhVbVBvMjU2VEl1RjVxcUJkUXhSSUY0bnFkdk51RXpMcVYrQk5veDVGMUhqU2doTlF5MG1JeWl6clpRVENEMnEzUUIwZGFOdWlIdnNjYVlRdUdBNSJ9
3.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-20/solar-wind-and-battery-cleantech-are-now-mainstream-investments
4.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/fortescue-leads-stampede-into-green-energy-with-stunning-plans-for-235-gigawatts-of-wind-and-solar-27936/?fbclid=IwAR1pJGelMsxXrIFoHc95iNKyTsT6XN84Owr59Pfqysp3n1EmS1GRh0Hel8M
5.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-hydrogen/canada-unveils-hydrogen-strategy-to-kick-start-clean-fuel-industry-idUSKBN28Q2XC
6.
http://digital.olivesoftware.com/olive/ODN/SanFranciscoChronicle/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=HSFC%2F2021%2F01%2F17&entity=Ar04104&sk=CC46A142&mode=text
