At the risk of
overstating the obvious, these are historic times on all the fronts of
pandemic, climate change, economic instability, and social justice. I can write and speak volumes, but the focus
here is on what has been happening in the area of energy production and use,
and the rather positive news regarding solar and wind. We will always need electricity production,
and the upward trend in renewables capacity is happening in this country, as
well as worldwide. Almost all new generation now and planned is in wind and
solar. Basic economics, which is good
for jobs, the environment, and sustainability.
Coal is continuing
its rapid decline in use, primarily because of its industry cost, not even
taking into account all of its true costs.
Latest figures from whatever powers that be shows coal at 6-8 cents/kwh,
solar PV at 4-5 cents, offshore wind 5-6 cents, and nuclear at 14+ cents. Surprisingly, large scale battery storage is
coming in at 15 cents, with those costs in a fairly rapid decline. Renewables beat coal in electricity
production in the US for the first time in 130 years, and the same is happening
all over the world. The 2250MW Navajo
coal plant recently shut down is being re-powered with PV. The first phase is 200MW, with 550MW more in
the works for now. Not only does this
mean electricity generation worth money, but local jobs and a much cleaner
environment. (1)
In Nevada, Warren
Buffet, who owns the utility, has committed to 600MW near Las Vegas, with
battery storage. (2) Here in Humboldt
County, a new contract has been signed to purchase 100MW of power from a
to-be-built facility near Bakersfield.
This is part of our Community Choice Aggregation which supplies
electricity to whoever wants it in the County.
It is currently comparable with PG&E costs, and will ultimately be
cheaper and more reliable, as PG&E continues to struggle to survive in its
bankruptcy, and ratepayers are on the hook for bailing them out. (3) Coupled with supplying electricity, utilities
are now making serious efforts in the demand-side for electricity via energy
efficiency, which most often is a lot cheaper that production. (4)
The biggest news
comes in the infant technology of storage.
Battery technology is making amazing strides, and virtually all new
large-scale renewable projects include battery back-up. California alone is committing to over
1000MW of new storage. (5) Hawaii,
Arizona, and even Florida are taking part in developing this new technology in
earnest. Costs are high right now (true
costs compared to what?) but as with the other renewable components, the more
that is produced and implemented, the lower the final costs. I still believe Hydrogen will be the ultimate
storage medium, and a lot of research is now heading in that direction. Though the use of hydrogen-fuel cell vehicles
is important, I still feel that large-scale hydrogen production on site at PV
and wind farms will eventually be key to smoothing out the intermittency of
renewable production. (6)
Another shift in conducting energy business is the adoption of microgrids in place of the old model of a large centralized power plant sending electricity in all directions to users. Whether it is Humboldt County, the City of Napa, a school district in the valley…so many entities are seeing the economic value of “small is beautiful” in providing lower costs, more reliability, more local control, more jobs, and less stranglehold from large corporate energy conglomerates.
The complex world of
energy and electricity production is probably the largest financial entity in
the world. Aside from oil, where
individual companies control the entire chain from exploration, extraction,
transportation, refining, and distribution, renewables offer a different
picture, mainly because the fuel is FREE.
This cuts into control and profits, and is the main reason renewables
have been held back for so long by the powers that be. There is still a lot of money to be made in
the future, and it is those that understand how to develop and implement the
technologies that will do well. Here is
an idea I purported many years ago, and it may be time. JinkoSolar in China is spending $1.6 billion
building a facility that by 2022, will produce 16,000MW of solar panels per
year!. (7) What does that mean? It means
that by 2022, panels capable of generating 16,000MW will be available to be
sold and installed wherever. That’s the
equivalent of 16 large nuclear of coal plants, which would cost 10x as much
just to build, take 8+ years, and when on line will only produce +/-1000MW of
electricity. Each year that one
manufacturing facility will an additional 16,000MW of panels. A lot of panels…it would take many years to
produce the 6TW of worldwide generating capacity, but this is just one
technology to be used when appropriate.
We should be building PV manufacturing facilities here in the US and
around the world…JOBS, sustainable energy technology to be developed and put
into operation…over time, this as well as other generating technologies,
storage, efficiency, etc. can get us to
the sustainable future so may bigwigs say is impossible.
One last bit of bright
news is my following a company called Enphase, which originated in the little
town of Petaluma (once the egg capital of the US). They made the inverters used in both my solar
PV systems I installed about three years ago.
They work great. At that time, the publicly traded stock (ENPH) was
selling for around $4.50. This company
has grown, and is actively involved worldwide in microgrids, new inverter
technology partnership with Panasonic, and a bunch of other things. The stock has fluctuated a lot in the past
couple of months…from a high of $64…this morning down to $58.32. There is money to be made in renewables…from
the products themselves to the usage.
The revolution (in
all its fronts) is starting, and my optimism is that people are not really
self-destructive, and we eventually will come out of all this mess in a better
place because we do have the knowledge and technology to do so. What we need is the moral courage to fight
the greed and politics in place now. Let
the sun shine!!!!
