A quick update worthy of a true Thanksgiving. Two new stunning reports on solar energy are
demonstrating the rapid transition in world-wide electricity generation.
The
first involves China (no surprise).
Tongwei will spend $1.8 Billion in the next two years to build two 10 GW
PV manufacturing facilities. What this
means, is that two-three years from now, each of these plants will be putting
on the market the equivalent of TEN nuclear or coal-fired plants. That's 20,000 megawatts of generating
capacity…per year. And the following
year, another 20,000MW; and the year following that another 20,000MW. In ten years, this one company in its two
manufacturing facilities will have built the equivalent of 200 nuclear power
plants!
“The investment is part of Tongwei’s plan to achieve 30 GW of cell capacity.
Its current 5.4 GW makes Tongwei the world’s fourth-biggest solar-cell
producer, and the company has an additional 4.3 GW of capacity under
construction.
The world’s largest cell
maker, Shanghai-based JA Solar Holdings Co, has an annual capacity of 6.5
GW, and add this to all the manufacturers in Korea, Japan, Germany, and the US,
and there is really no shortage of new generating potential in the world.
Of course, the other part of the equation is
storage, and progress is being made in both battery technology, and of course,
my pick…hydrogen/fuel cell for large-scale grid storage.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-05/better-than-a-battery-big-energy-backs-hydrogen-power-storage
The second major bombshell comes from the very reputable US investment firm
Lazard.
https://thinkprogress.org/solar-wind-keep-getting-cheaper-33c38350fb95/
“Building
new renewables is now cheaper than just running old coal and nuclear
plants.” All the “costs” of energy
technologies are starting to make their way to the front of the balance sheet. Not only are new construction costs for
old-school steam-generating plants the main issue, but, the cost of fuel,
maintenance, repair, upgrades, wastes disposal, and environmental compliance
now are being quantified in the deliberation of energy policy. Already, renewables are displacing new
fossil construction, so now their impact on actually replacing older units is
significant. Natural gas will continue
to be the appropriate transition fuel during the development of storage and new
grid technologies.
The
current administration is fighting this battle with hopes of derailing the
renewable train. A proposed 20% tariff
on imported “cheap” (because they are subsidized by the Chinese government)
solar panels will put a dent in the progress of our renewable businesses. However, most of them say that within a few
years, the costs of solar panels will be so low, that that tariff won’t make
any difference. The US is not supporting
its solar industries, by slowly repealing subsidies and credits, increasing
tariffs and taxes, and blocking most legislation aimed at science, technology,
business, and job creation. Instead,
there are proposed new subsidies in the works for coal and nuclear, as well as
a continuation of the enormous subsidies for the oil industry.
The
same issues face the wind industry, whose exponential growth is being
implemented world-wide. Renewables
(solar and wind) are the future, in spite of the huge political bias against
them.
Happy
Thanksgiving!!!!!!!!!!!
PS An accident, most-likely at a nuclear reprocessing facility
in southern Russia, and released radioactivity into the atmosphere. Heard about it?????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
