Monday, April 15, 2013

High Level Waste Disposal



As the global nuclear industry continues to struggle with technical issues in its aging fleet, and the cost overruns and delays in new construction, a renewed focus has turned to decommissioning and more importantly the disposal of high-level wastes.  Germany just appointed a new commission to examine their waste disposal solutions, something the US did a few years ago, and they will probably come up with the same conclusions:  There is no real solution to the spent fuel problem!  But we have to do something…so what do we do?

There are several courses of action we (and this is true of all the nuclear nations) can take.  The consensus is to eventually bury the canisters in a deep geologic repository.  Easier said than done.  We have spent 30 years and close to $15 billion culminating with Yucca Mountain, which we have scientifically deemed unsuitable for a variety of technical problems, which of course the politicos have reduced to just “plain politics.”  The truth is that the waste is highly radioactive, which means it releases heat…we cannot predict what the impact of that heat and radiation will have on the geology and hydrology of the site, and on the actual casks containing the waste.  This material must be isolated from the environment for a minimum of 10,000 years.  Lots of uncertainty.  So what do we do?

Most of the spent fuel rods are currently stored on site in pools at the power plants.  They are slowly being encased in huge dry casks, and placed on guarded pad facilities.  This is costly and spreads the waste over 40-50 sites in the US.  But it may be the best option until a central underground repository is built (if it ever is.) 

Another possibility is to move all these casks (they are about 20 ft tall, 8 ft wide, and can weigh up to 150 tons each) to a central retrievable location, where they will sit until a repository is open.  One such site is Skull Mountain on Native American reservation land in Utah.  Although this would relieve the utilities from responsibility of maintaining the casks, it would concentrate an enormous amount of highly radioactive material in one vulnerable place.  Current estimates of the wastes we would produce if we were to build no new reactors would fill some 6000 casks.  Handling and shipping this number of casks, storing them in one concentrated location, and maintaining them from weathering, corrosion, and most importantly from possible terrorist attack would not be easy or cheap.  The current casks are designed for a life 50-100 years, so they would have to be re-casked and moved again to a repository if it is built.  Lots of uncertainty!

Another option is the recycle/reprocessing route.  Although this sounds idealistic, it really not a solution, and would create an even bigger mess than we have now.  Best described by Edwin Lyman: “Reprocessing is the worst possible alternative to deep geological disposal because it greatly increases the cost, as well as the dangers, of waste management. Reprocessing increases the total volume of nuclear waste sevenfold over direct disposal; those multiple new waste streams present additional challenges for storage, transport and disposal. Even worse, reprocessing produces copious quantities of concentrated nuclear-weapon-usable materials, primarily plutonium. One large reprocessing plant can produce about 1,000 bombs' worth of plutonium each year. 
Adding insult to injury, this technological disaster costs a lot of money.”  Reprocessing has been a nightmare for England, France, and Russia, and even Ronald Reagan recognized this when he cancelled reprocessing in the US.

So, as the Nuclear Waste “Blue Ribbon Commission” reported a few years ago, “No currently available or reasonably foreseeable reactor and fuel cycle technology developments - including advances in reprocess and recycle technologies - have the potential to fundamentally alter the waste management challenge this nation confronts over at least the next several decades, if not longer."  We all just wind up kicking the can down the road.

A few references to the above:
Three “experts” opinions


I’m just about finished going through “Uncertainty Underground” edited by Allison MacFarland, the new head of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.  Everything and more that you want to know about nuclear waste, geology, hydrology, thermohydrology, volcanism, colloidal transport…whew!  Articles written by the very well qualified scientists who studied Yucca Mountain, and come up with the conclusion: UNCERTAINTY!

Cheap nuclear electricity!
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$




Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Decommissioning Cost Update for Humboldt Bay

We had our quarterly meeting last night with PG&E on the nuclear decommissioning going on at Humboldt Bay.  As in past meetings, I continue to be stunned by the complexity and scope of work being done, and most vividly, by the number of dollars being spent on this back end of the nuclear cycle.

Six months ago, I was elated about the decision to do a complete cleanup, although it would have raised the total decommissioning cost from $600 million to $800 million.  The new estimate is now $1.081 billion on through 2025!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  A lot is going to happen in the next 6 years when the project is estimated to be completed, and the six years for spent fuel storage; and I humbly predict (my guesses have been right on since 1978 when I first got into this game) that the final cost may well be $1.5+ billion.  This is for a 63MW plant. The current $1.081billion makes the electricity this nuclear unit produced in its 14 year life cost 21 cents/kwh just for decommissioning…let alone the initial capital costs and O&M costs over the past 50 years.  YIKES!
This is real life…in the jaws of the dragon…and very different from the continued propaganda coming from the nuclear industry.  Just today, an article in Chemical & Engineering News cites a cost estimate of $400 million for decommissioning a typical plant. (http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-04/acs-aar040313.php )  An outright lie!
The current estimate for Diablo Canyon is $3 billion, and San Onofre is $4 billion…right…Humboldt was once $95 million.  Those costs may be 2-3x+?? higher down the road
There are 100+ US reactors that are just beginning to reach the end of their lives, and even with license extension, they will eventually have to be decommissioned.  We’re looking at half a trillion + dollars down the road…and that’s not even estimating what to do with the spent fuel, or what that would even cost. Guess who pays????
A non-nuclear accident at the plant in Arkansas the other day killed one worker and injured 8 others.  The stator on the generator was being removed when the crane failed, and the 500 ton equipment crashed through the floor, severely damaging the turbine building.  That plant will probably not be repaired (huge expense) and will have to be decommissioned.  The fate of Crystal River, Kewaunee. Vermont Yankee, San Onofre are just a few immediate sites of concern…nobody’s really talking about all the others.
Mark Cooper, an energy economist who has been right on in the past, is encouraging the state of Georgia to abandon the two Vogle plants now being constructed.  Writing off the $2 billion already spent will be a lot cheaper than finishing the plants at huge taxpayer subsidy, and then having to eventually fund decommissioning in the future.  The Western Public Power Supply System  did that in the early ‘80’s in the state of Washington, when they defaulted on the two partially build reactors in Clatsop.
And things are not boding well for the nuclear waste side either.  Major problems at Hanford with leaking tanks, and more recently the technical failure of the vitrification plant being built by Bechtel (half built, $12 billion spent, 12 years behind schedule), and now with huge technical problems, most likely will not be completed.  (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/03/science/earth/treatment-plant-for-waste-in-nuclear-cleanup-has-design-flaws-panel-says.html?_r=0 )  So much for reprocessing!
In the rest of the world, decommissioning costs, and waste costs and issues are beginning to come to light in England, France, and South Korea.  China forges ahead, but then, they are China and oblivious to reality...at least for the time being.
Meanwhile, we are very near the time when solar and other renewables are at grid parity…the same cost, if not cheaper, than coal and nuclear (even at its grossly underestimated cost.)
Let the sun shine and the wind blow.  My next piece will look at the state of the renewable industry, and its very rosy outlook for the future.