The argument that solar energy is too expensive is slowly starting to crumble. Prices of photovoltaic panels have been literally cut in half over the past two years. First Solar, one of the largest solar manufacturers recently announced it is at the 76 cent/watt benchmark. Although this is still above the 50 cent/watt deemed for years as being the magic number where solar would be universally accepted, we’re at a major crossroads, and the optimism is that the cost will continue to decline.
I’d like to try and put all this in perspective. We use electricity in units of watts…a 100 watt light bulb, a 1500 watt toaster. We pay for electricity in units of kilowatts per hour…1 kwh means we use 1000 watts for 1 hour; and our cost is anywhere from 8 cents to 15 cents depending on where we live. This retail price includes the cost of production, transmission, maintenance, administration, taxes, insurance, profit…all the expenses associated with the business of a utility serving its customers. In order to produce the electricity, a “power plant” must be constructed. What First Solar is saying, is that its “production” modules now cost $760/kw to manufacture. Add to that the other construction-related costs, and the total cost of that power plant approaches $1000/kw. If we look at other kinds of power plants, a coal-fired plant costs roughly $4000/kw; the new natural gas-fired plant PG&E built at Humboldt Bay came in at $1500/kw; and the proposed new nuclear plants are estimated at $8000…$12,000…???????????$/kw.
The cost of solar is decreasing, while the cost of conventional fueled (fossil, nuclear) electricity generation is going up. Once the power plant is built, there are O&M (operation and maintenance) costs…the cost of fuel, replacement of parts that wear out, cost of water for cooling, cost of waste (air pollutants, CO2, nuclear spent fuel) disposal. PV solar has the advantage of no fuel costs, no emissions or wastes, a minimum of moving parts to wear out, and very low labor requirements once the plant is up and running. I recall in 1989, a colleague of mine from the Engineering Department at HSU and I visited two huge (by 1989 standards) PV facilities in Southern California. We were stunned that in the middle of the sunny afternoon, while each of these 1MW plants was producing electricity for the grid, we could not find anyone to talk to because the entrance gates were locked, and there was no one around. Just the birds chirping, and the steady creak of the trackers moving the PVs every 15 seconds to face the sun. Whether we place solar in dedicated “solar farms” or mount them on our rooftops, we have a relatively inexpensive source of electricity once the initial “cost of construction” is paid for. It is estimated that placing PVs on just 3% of the roofs of US structures could displace all the coal-fired electricity generation we have today.
The cost of solar is coming down. PVs are becoming more efficient, meaning less surface area and materials needed per watt. New technologies promise new materials that can be incorporated into almost everything in our lives…our homes and commercial buildings with PV coated roofing material and glass and solid walls, automobile and truck rooftops, highway median strips, even the clothing that we wear. And all this with no moving parts, no fuel costs, no emissions…no increasing bills from our local utility. In 2009, there were 146 new solar patents granted. The solar industry is making huge inroads in the economies of not only the US, but China, Japan, Germany, Spain, Italy, and South Korea.
The renewable and sustainable future is possible, yet enormous obstacles and issues remain and must be overcome. The sun does not shine all the time. The biggest challenge is storage of solar energy so it can be used whenever we need it. I will leave that discussion for another time, but we are moving forward towards our “green energy” future. Major advances in energy efficiency, smart grid technologies, and the blending of other renewable resources such as wind and biofuels will continue to progress hand in hand with solar energy. The main role for solar right now is to produce electricity when the maximum amount (peak power) is demanded by consumers. That is generally in the afternoon, on a hot summer day, when the sun is shining at its brightest. The transition has been slow, ands there will be ups and downs; but the pace is escalating as we move into the new “green” era beyond fossil fuels and nuclear.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/09/producing-solar-at-70-cents-a-watt?cmpid=rss
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/partner/heslin-rothenberg-farley-mesiti-p-c-7929/news/article/2010/09/solar-patents-at-record-in-2009-shine-on-solar-edition-of-cepgi?cmpid=rss
http://www.jsonline.com/business/29482814.html
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
THE GROWTH OF SOLAR MANUFACTURING
Aside from the costs, another argument against solar energy has been its small scale compared to a large conventional power plant. A huge nuclear plant can produce enough power for 800,000 customers, while a PV system on someone’s rooftop might just provide enough electricity for that household. Yet, given time, and put in perspective, solar energy can become and increasingly viable means of electricity generation.
A rule that still hold true for energy planners is to have available 1kw of generating capacity for every customer being served. Here in Humboldt County, we have a population of about 110,000 people, and PG&E has a power plant capable of producing 120,000kw, the excess capacity being there for increased population and future demand. Playing the numbers game, 1000 kilowatts is 1 megawatt (MW), and 1000 MW is 1 gigawatt (GW). The US electricity system is capable of generating about 600GW of power, and the world capacity is somewhere around 4,600GW. All this is supplied by thousands of generators ranging from small 1kw portables to huge 1200MW coal and nuclear units. Replacing ALL of these with solar and other renewables such as wind appears to be a daunting, if not impossible task. It will take some time, but it is definitely possible.
A recent press release by Neo Solar Power of Taiwan announced that construction is underway on what will now be the world's largest solar cell facility, a plant that will cost $837 million and produce 3.4 GW of cells per year. LDK Solar of China has a current production capacity of 2GW/year. First Solar in the US can manufacture 1.4GW/yr. These are just three of the largest manufacturers. Include Sharp and Sanyo of Japan, Siemens of Germany, the other US and Chinese, Italians, Spaniards, and South Koreans, and you approach some 35GW of production per year. The significance of this is that this production capacity is manufactured EACH YEAR, and will most obviously increase.
To put this in perspective, we are currently proposing to spend an estimated $10 billion on a new nuclear power plant in Georgia. Once completed, at whatever the final cost, that plant will generate 1000MW (1GW) of electricity when it is running. It will have a license to operate for thirty years, but its output will be a constant 1000MW each hour it runs.
Neo Solar is investing $837 million in a manufacturing facility that will produce 3,400MW (3.4GW) of solar cells every year. So, for the first year, it puts out 3,4000MW, the second year it’s combined output will be 6,800MW, the next year 10,200MW, increasing each year so that in thirty years we will have 102,000MW (102GW) of generating capacity just from that one facility. Start multiplying that by the current, but significantly increasing PV production capacity and the role of solar becomes noteworthy. The nuclear industry dreams of mass production of small modular nuclear power plants, but at what cost, and when such units might be commercially available is hugely unknown. Meanwhile, we will be producing more and more solar energy at relative low cost, no fuel costs, minimal maintenance, no emissions, and readily available at the local level throughout the world. Coupled with increased energy efficiency, all the new technologies in renewables (wind, biomass, ocean, geothermal), and better ways to locally generate, transmit, and use electricity, and within thirty years we are definitely in the new era of green and sustainable energy. Of course many obstacles exist, but our incredible technological prowess, and the fact that there is much money to be made in this area will escalate the transition.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/08/worlds-largest-solar-cell-manufacturing-plant-underway
A rule that still hold true for energy planners is to have available 1kw of generating capacity for every customer being served. Here in Humboldt County, we have a population of about 110,000 people, and PG&E has a power plant capable of producing 120,000kw, the excess capacity being there for increased population and future demand. Playing the numbers game, 1000 kilowatts is 1 megawatt (MW), and 1000 MW is 1 gigawatt (GW). The US electricity system is capable of generating about 600GW of power, and the world capacity is somewhere around 4,600GW. All this is supplied by thousands of generators ranging from small 1kw portables to huge 1200MW coal and nuclear units. Replacing ALL of these with solar and other renewables such as wind appears to be a daunting, if not impossible task. It will take some time, but it is definitely possible.
A recent press release by Neo Solar Power of Taiwan announced that construction is underway on what will now be the world's largest solar cell facility, a plant that will cost $837 million and produce 3.4 GW of cells per year. LDK Solar of China has a current production capacity of 2GW/year. First Solar in the US can manufacture 1.4GW/yr. These are just three of the largest manufacturers. Include Sharp and Sanyo of Japan, Siemens of Germany, the other US and Chinese, Italians, Spaniards, and South Koreans, and you approach some 35GW of production per year. The significance of this is that this production capacity is manufactured EACH YEAR, and will most obviously increase.
To put this in perspective, we are currently proposing to spend an estimated $10 billion on a new nuclear power plant in Georgia. Once completed, at whatever the final cost, that plant will generate 1000MW (1GW) of electricity when it is running. It will have a license to operate for thirty years, but its output will be a constant 1000MW each hour it runs.
Neo Solar is investing $837 million in a manufacturing facility that will produce 3,400MW (3.4GW) of solar cells every year. So, for the first year, it puts out 3,4000MW, the second year it’s combined output will be 6,800MW, the next year 10,200MW, increasing each year so that in thirty years we will have 102,000MW (102GW) of generating capacity just from that one facility. Start multiplying that by the current, but significantly increasing PV production capacity and the role of solar becomes noteworthy. The nuclear industry dreams of mass production of small modular nuclear power plants, but at what cost, and when such units might be commercially available is hugely unknown. Meanwhile, we will be producing more and more solar energy at relative low cost, no fuel costs, minimal maintenance, no emissions, and readily available at the local level throughout the world. Coupled with increased energy efficiency, all the new technologies in renewables (wind, biomass, ocean, geothermal), and better ways to locally generate, transmit, and use electricity, and within thirty years we are definitely in the new era of green and sustainable energy. Of course many obstacles exist, but our incredible technological prowess, and the fact that there is much money to be made in this area will escalate the transition.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/08/worlds-largest-solar-cell-manufacturing-plant-underway
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