Monday, April 15, 2019

Energy Update after the 11th Anniversary of Fukushima



Here we are, 11+ years after the nuclear disaster in Japan. In spite of billions of dollars spent, that site is continuing to accumulate millions of gallons of radioactively contaminated water in makeshift tanks and releasing both water and gaseous radioactive emissions because there is no way to contain them. The workers still can't even begin to address the melted fuel in two of the four reactors, let alone figure out what to do with it.  This site will never really be cleaned up.  Like Chernobyl, it will be somehow be entombed, monitored, and chipped away at “decommissioning.”  The total costs (economic, technical, environmental, and social) now estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars, will never be known, since all subsequent activities will take place over hundred years or more. 
Despite this, the global nuclear industry continues to push for federal tax dollars to continue the Vogle boondoggle in Georgia, extending the licensing of old plants, and lobbying the dream of new nuclear technologies that are safer, cheaper, and necessary in our coming low-carbon world.  Another of our great “hoaxes!”

Meanwhile, renewables are making great headway, in spite of the blatant lack of support by the current administration.   Just today, the White House proposed cutting the funding for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory by 70%.  Of course, Congress will not let this happen.  But all the other actions taking place in the EPA, Departments of Interior, Energy, Commerce, Housing, etc. are taking their toll in the necessary push for growth and deployment of the various renewable technologies and policies.  Individual states and businesses are addressing the obvious...renewables are cheaper, cleaner, sustainable, and most of all, local job creators.  More and more people are realizing this is not a partisan reality but is a very real benefit for our society and the world. And the lies and misinformation from the administration are being seen for what it is.

The “Green New Deal” is making incredible waves, and the old fossil guard is getting very nervous.  Several points which I believe need to be seriously addressed are:
1.     We need to understand the difference between our overall energy use and our electricity use.  The first phase of the transition is the replacement renewables for the use of fossil fuels in generating electricity.  Other fossil energy uses will be more difficult, but will eventually follow.
2.     The goal of 100% renewable energy is not very appropriate.  We can achieve a great reduction of fossil electricity, but there is no reason to exclude the use of natural gas when it is the "best" available technology for doing what needs to be done.
3.     We will most likely continue to use oil for a variety of purposes including transportation.  The amount we consume will decrease as efficiency and replacements escalate.  There probably be old Chevys on the road many years from now!
4.     The time for implementation of the lofty goals for the Green Plan (20-30 years) is misleading and misconceived.  The transition will take time, and will be guided by technology as well as social, political, and financial incentives.
5.     We cannot know what new advances and discoveries will push the implementation of current and new technologies.  Some may speed up the process, while others may need time to develop, manufacture, construct, etc.
6.     The main thing is that this new direction is the future, and we all need to understand, support, and push for its most rapid deployment.

The cost of this transition is the most misunderstood concept at this time…$95 trillion +/-, whatever.  Most of this is not “new” money that will be needed.  We already spend trillions of dollars each year on conventional energy, and the transition will just shift what technologies we demand.  Not too long ago, solar and wind were expensive compared to fossil fuels.  Expensive money was spent with the result that today, those renewables are cheaper than coal, nuclear, and oil.

What is the “true” cost?  It’s not just the cost of a solar panel vs a coal-fired plant.  The other ancillary cost to our air, water, our overall health, the degradation of land, and now most important, the real cost that climate change poses for us and future generations.  These costs are incalculable, but most certainly far more than would it would cost us if we do nothing.  The only cost issue is the decrease in profits for the entire fossil fuel industry.  We will still use energy…we most likely will require even more as time goes by, so money will be spent…just for different resources.

So many benefits and issues that need to be addressed and cover so we as a society can understand what “we” are doing.  Renewables will produce local jobs.  The cost of sunlight and wind will not fluctuate.  The development and manufacture of the various technologies will flourish with so many benefits for a sustainable world.  The Navajo Nation has abandoned its 2000+MW coal-fired plant and will not only use solar PV to provide electricity to its constituency; but will build a manufacturing facility to produce those panels, and more into the future.

The old argument that we can’t make the transition in a reasonable timeframe is again just nonsense.  The remarkable advances we see in space, automotive, communication technology can be mustered to provide the solar, wind, efficiency, and other necessary infrastructures we need.  If the enormous amount of money lobbied against renewables were to be turned around in support, it would be a no brainer!








Monday, January 21, 2019

Winter 2019 Update



Here it is, the middle of our January winter, and it is cold and rainy...wish we could have some of that global warming about now!  The good news though, is that the decommissioning of the Humboldt Bay nuclear power plant is coming to a close within the next couple of years.  All the radioactive contamination is gone away (?) and site cleanup and restoration is in full progress...a job well done, but still needing a few more millions of dollars from ratepayers to finish.

The big concern now is with the Diablo Canyon twin reactors down south.  They are scheduled to close in 2024, and a decommissioning plan is beginning to take form.  The cost estimates have gone from $1billion in 1988 (which we then successfully determined as a base price over PG&E's objections) to $2.5b in 2012, $3.8b in 2016, and now at $4.8b.  PG&E is asking the state PUC for an additional $1.6b to be added to the existing decommissioning fund by raising customers electricity rates by as much as 5%. (1) It is doubtful that they would say no, since by law, the plant has to be decommissioned!  From an industry that has such an atrocious history of underestimating costs, some of us believe the final tab might be $10b, $15b...???? many years into the future.  Cheap nuclear power, and an answer to our climate change problems?  Then there is the issue of spent fuel...high level wastes, low level wastes, etc. etc.  Mindboggling $$$$$$ssss.

But here is the serious concern we have today.  PG&E is in bankruptcy, due in part to the climate change induced catastrophic fires that have ravaged northern California, and their liability due to “corporate” mismanagement of both their electricity and natural gas divisions.  $34 billion in debt...whatever all that means.   One of their largest assets is Diablo Canyon.  What happens to that...do they keep it, even though it is in reality a money loser compared to natural gas and now renewables.  Do they sell it to someone to raise cash? (2) That is being done in other states, such as the shut down “Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant which recently sold to the Northstar Group for a symbolic and nominal $1,000...plus its $506 million decommissioning trust fund.”  Decom estimates for that plant now stand at $1.2b.  The new owners say they can decommission it at a lower cost.  Maybe!!!  What happens down the road if they can't...gosh, they might go into bankruptcy, pay off the executives and lawyers huge bonuses, and leave the folks in Vermont continuing to foot the bill.  Westinghouse, General Electric, GM, PG&E...  Can that happen with Diablo Canyon?  They have a federal nuclear license that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission oversees...gosh, the federal government is shut down...and even if/when it is up and running again, this dysfunctional agency will play the political games with the industry that they have been playing for so many years.  We've got to keep our eyes on these guys...it is ultimately the “little guy” that gets screwed.

The nuclear industry continues to push the idea that nuclear power is the answer to climate change.  Not true!!  Partially solving one problem and creating a whole host of others.  Ongoing efforts to clean up the “back end” of nuclear power continues to drain billions of dollars from ratepayers and taxpayers.  San Onofre, Oyster Creek, Vogle, Hanford, Fukushima, the UK...the list goes on and on around the world.  Japan, which has only one reactor running out of 53 in their fleet, estimates it would need to spend about 1.9 trillion yen ($17.1 billion) to close 79 facilities over the next 70 years, in its first such estimate.(3) Pretty cheap estimate, as usual.  The current estimate for Fukushima is close to $200b.  Still no solution to wastes disposal issues.  Beyond mindboggling!

Meanwhile, in spite of ALL the obstacles placed on renewables by the current administration, the outlook is good, and could really be 10x better if we put our minds and dollars to it.  “EIA’s latest inventory of electric generators estimates that 23.7 gigawatts of new capacity additions and 8.3 gigawatts of capacity retirements are expected for the U.S. electric power sector in 2019. The utility-scale capacity additions consist of wind (46 percent), natural gas (34 percent), and solar photovoltaics (18 percent), with the remaining 2 percent consisting primarily of other renewables and battery storage capacity.”(4)  According to a 2018 Wood Mackenzie market report, “between 2018 and 2022, U.S. distributed solar installations will grow from today’s roughly 2 million to almost 3.8 million. Behind-the-meter battery storage is also expected to grow from 200 megawatts to almost 1,400 megawatts during the same timeframe.” (5) 

The electricity industry (generators, transm1ssion, distribution, grid operators, federal and state PUCs) is in utter turmoil.  Common sense and common cents will hopefully prevail, because the “green” transition is so very doable.  Stay wake, aware, and tuned in!!!






Monday, November 19, 2018

THANKSGIVING UPDATE


                   THANKS(giving) FOR WHERE WE'RE AT TODAY

As I ponder another dry, cool fall day on the NorthCoast, I am overwhelmed by EVERYTHING that is going on beyond the Redwood Curtain.  What I am most grateful for is knowing that I have been true to my beliefs in both patriotism and environmentalism.  With great irony, I give thanks that “climate change” is now at the forefront of almost all of our political, social, and technological thinking.  Is this a blessing?

Back in 1988, I worked on a project with my fellow educator at HSU, and provided meaningful information on renewables for the first report put out by the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change.  From that time on I have worked diligently to educate and warn of the dangers posed to society by the continued burning of fossil fuels.  It has been challenging and frustrating, but I feel vindicated in that my research, readings, discussions, and thinking have not been for naught.  It is all very complex, but my fight for renewables over fossil fuels, as well as nuclear, continues to make environmental, economic, technological, and moral sense.  That, I am thankful for!
We are just beginning to visualize and understand the huge impacts climate change is causing here and throughout the world.  Our oceans, our forests, or coastal cities as well as those in mid-country, our agriculture, our public health...all are suffering an enormous downturn, much of which has been predicted for so many years.  Those in power today are now saying we can't afford to do the right things, and that it's too late...but we are slowly realizing that we can't afford to do nothing.  That is the crux of this dilemma, and will continue to evolve as more forests and communities burn, more hurricanes come ashore, more tornadoes, ice storms, flooding...more lives are lost.  The “right to life?”  Who's in charge?
First of all, I am thankful that I have been on the right side of the whole nuclear power issue.  Aside from the military stuff, the future of commercial nuclear power is dead, and the final nail in the proverbial coffin is economics.  New reactors are too expensive to build and operate, as shown in Georgia, South Carolina, and even in other parts or the "free" world.  Continued operation of existing plants, which years ago were "cheap" to build, is become more expensive to run and maintain, without subsidies.  The new awakening to the true costs associated with the cleanup of the entire nuclear fuel cycle...mining, enrichment, fuel fabrication, power reactors, and now, the enormous costs being identified for decommissioning all of these facilities, as well as the disposal of their wastes, and ultimately, the safe storage of spent fuel for tens of thousands of years, is coming to light.  Can we afford this?

The promise of new reactors, small modular reactors, recycling and reprocessing nuclear wastes for breeder reactors, and even the unrealistic promise of cheap, clean, unlimited fusion power cannot meet the simple economics of the ultimate fusion reactor...the SUN.     It's funny to hear the current arguments by the again misleading nuclear industry, that nuclear power is necessary to prevent global warming because it does not emit CO2...it emits an awful lot throughout is entire fuel cycle...and gee, these are the same folks who have been saying climate change is a hoax!  But we will muddle along with these new/old technologies (follow the money) even while continued progress is being made on making renewables cheaper, more efficient, and more sustainable and obvious into the future.

Here on the home front, the Humboldt Bay Nuclear Power Plant is in its final stages of decommissioning.  $1.2 Billion, 10+ years, some 10,000 truckloads of wastes hauled out of the county to Texas, Utah, Idaho, Washington, and Nevada (20,000+ if you count the return trip)...what is the carbon footprint?  All the radiological source emitters are gone, but there is still much site restoration to be done,..the removal of asbestos, toxic wastes, and other industrial debris; and the restoration of a bulk of the site to wetlands adjacent to Humboldt Bay.  It should be finished in another year or two, and what will then remain will be the dry casks containing the high-level spent fuel, awaiting "final disposal?"  I will post updated photos on my Flickr page from the tour of the site last week.  It is amazing what money and technology can do!

As for renewables, the costs continue to come down and more megawatts are coming online.  Some say it is not fast enough to save the planet...gee I wonder why?  There is a major wind farm being planned for the Wildcat Ridge south of Eureka, and another offshore project in the works.  My solar systems are doing great...actually, they too are getting cheaper.  PG&E is on the verge of bankruptcy because of their liability in the fires in California and must raise their rates to stay in business.  The increases are in the "non-fuel" side of the electric bill, so it is not due to the mandated use of renewables, or the high cost of Diablo Canyon ‘s electricity; but in the transmission and distribution side of the business, which generally accounts for about 2/3 of the price per KWH on the monthly bill.  The new solar system I put on this year will now pay for itself in about 5-6 years (18% return?) assuming the smoke from the fires doesn't diminish the sunlight!  As costs go up, more and more businesses and people are switching to produce more of their own electricity.  It is a vicious cycle the utilities hate but must contend with.

This is all so interesting, exciting, and mind-boggling.  I look forward to continuing my efforts in local issues, and in the upcoming Diablo Canyon and San Onofre decommissioning battles.  But first, Christmas time's a’coming...and maybe some rain.

Just a few interesting pieces:









Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Hard To Keep Up

Another week of breathing smoke, and I'm reading about the administration's attempt to rollback the clean air standards for power plants (especially coal-fired plants) which in the long run would dramatically affect the quality of the air we, and future generations, will breathe. The energy industry continues to do everything they can to discourage renewables with their blatant expensive PR campaign.

Nuclear power is basically dead because it simply is too expensive and not cost effective in our energy mix even without massive subsidies. It is not a solution to our climate change challenges. In fact, when it is really hot, and the demand for electricity is great, many reactors have to shit down because of cooling water problems. The "renaissance" from 12 years ago is dead! The half-built Sumner plant in South Carolina has been scrapped, and all the powers that be are trying to sort out who has/will pay the $9 billion already spent. Of course, the ratepayers will ultimately be on the hook for about $6,500 each, and the utilities and giants like Westinghouse walk away or go bankrupt. The Vogle plant in Georgia, still under construction, is faring no better, and will probably be canceled within the next year. Twelve years and some $20 billion later...no affordable, clean electricity! The same is true in other parts of the "free world." Bechtel just pulled out of the Hitachi deal to build a nuke in Britain. France is struggling with it's two new generation plants under construction. Japan can't afford to even upgrade and reopen its 50 idle plants because it is struggling with the massive costs of trying to figure out what to do with Fukushima, which continues to be a massive mess.

With this economic failure on the construction side, a few utilities are now having to deal with the back-end of the technology. The shutdown and decommissioning of plants around the US and elsewhere is creating incredible economic issues. Vermont Yankee, San Onofre, Diablo Canyon, Oyster Creek, and the dozen more in the block will cost ratepayers tens of billions of dollars today, and hundreds of billions over the next 100 years or so. The strategy here is to defer decommissioning for 40-60 years (for worker safety reasons!) And, there are still another 80+ plants that are rapidly approaching the end of their useful life.

And then again, there is the issue of spent fuel management and storage. Yucca Mountain will never open, so the industry's push is to send the dry casks to a central "temporary" facility run by a couple of corporations. The Holtec plan for New Mexico is great for Holtec (a privately held company) since they also are one of the largest builders of dry casks. Billions and billions of our dollars here! The only other option is to leave the 10+ million dollar casks on site, and continue to spend millions of dollars per year monitoring and safeguarding them for eternity. The big issue right now at San Onofre on the California south coast is that those 250+ casks will sit on a pad 100 yards from the Pacific Ocean. Sea rise, earthquakes, tsunami, all those immigrant terrorists...not to worry, the powers that be will take care of it! The hyped-up promise of cheaper small modular reactors is still tied to all the other issues of fuel storage, the balance of system, grid interties, etc., and realistically and technologically will not be cost effective.

Nuclear fusion is again making some waves with the promise of clean, cheap, unlimited energy will soon be there for us. Another giant hoax and myth that is sucking up our research dollars. We probably will achieve a sustained fusion reaction, but all the issues affecting the fission industry today will apply to fusion reactors. True, there will not be any high-level wastes (long-lived transuranics) produced; but we're still dealing with neutrons and the activation problems they create. Interesting enough, the USS Enterprise, the first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, which has been in mothballs for many years now with its spent fuel removed from its 10 small (10MW) reactors. The current estimate to "decommission" the ship is over $1 billion, due to the neutron activation making it difficult to disassemble, and the metal un-recyclable. The other challenging issues with fusion involve how to contain the hot plasma (hundreds of millions of degrees) and extract the heat necessary to boil water into steam to spin the turbine which spins the generator which creates a flow of electricity. We're not going to have one in every garage...The "costs" of large central power sources make them uneconomical and eventually unnecessary in our future electricity systems. The other interesting sidelight of fusion fuel...unlimited deuterium in seawater, must be extracted. Deuterium has a natural abundance in Earth's oceans of about one atom in 6420 of hydrogen. Great...I've always been a proponent of the hydrogen economy, where H2 will be the storage medium to be used in fuel cells or combusted back to water. Right now hydrogen production is too expensive.????? What about the tritium? Construction costs, O&M costs, decommissioning costs?

The good news is that gains in hydrogen as an energy carrier and storage medium other than for use in vehicles is making some gains in Australia, Germany, Canada, and Japan. Again, the US lags behind. The solar industry continues to grow, in spite of the tariffs, penalties, and the push for coal and nuclear power. The cost continues to come down as the technology matures, efficiency increases, and individuals and business realize the cost-effectiveness and savings they can have. More on this later.

Just a few references (there are so many now each day!)







Tuesday, August 14, 2018

August Climate Update

August Update

As I sit here on a cool foggy coastal afternoon, I'm reflecting on the extreme heat and ferocious fires raging not too far inland. One concern is the Carr fire is less than a mile from our friend's summer place out at Lewiston, and moving in their direction. Scary! But what is more discerning is the continued vehement denial by the few, that human induced global warming, or climate change, or whatever you want to call it, is not responsible. In spite of all the evidence, scientific, political, and economic, this contrived denial is proving to be the greatest “hoax” ever inflicted on humanity by a small handful of powerful and greedy people. Not to argue here, but the question that is never asked, and they never would answer is “what if man-induced climate change is true?” The economic, environmental, and social ramifications are enormous and almost overwhelming, not so much for us, but for future generations, because the extremes we are experiencing now will only get worse, leading to far greater devastation

Reading the news, we're seeing hundreds of fires across the US and Canada, as well as devastating fires in Greece, Sweden...all over the world. I just talked to a friend in British Columbia, and he is seeing drought, dryness, tree deaths from insect infestations...all sorts of worrisome issues. And yet the current powers and leaders blame the radical environmentalists...the easy prey, who have prevented logging and letting water run down our rivers to the ocean. Really?????

Watching the national news shows record-breaking flooding in Pennsylvania, and the whole east coast, as well as extreme climate phenomenon through-out the world. And yet, the fossil fuel interest continue to lie and spew their stupidity, greed, and disinformation. The $2billion they have spent over tall those years could have gone into a lot of positive solutions.

We will reach a point very soon, where the economic costs and social suffering overwhelm all of our budgets and infrastructure; and “we” finally begin to address the causes and solutions to the problem. It will be too late to stop the advancing changes we have already initiated, but we will be forced to begin to do things to mitigate future impacts.

As I always have said...we cannot destroy our environment. But we can change it to make human life more difficult, expensive, and miserable.

Enough said. I urge you to “PAY ATTENTION!!”
And again, I encourage you to watch “After the Warming” on Utube. This entertaining narrative visualizes the predictions made in the 1990 IPCC report. So far it is impressively pretty accurate.


PS: The Carr Fire has been contained on the west side, so it no longer is a direst threat our friends home! But again, it is only early August.



Sunday, March 18, 2018

AN ENERGY UPDATE - MARCH 2018


Things continue to not bode well for the nuclear industry, as the economic impacts of construction, decommissioning, and wastes disposal come to light in the US as well as the rest of the world.

In South Carolina, the canceled plants continue to stir controversy as to who is responsible for the $12 billion already spent, with utilities and legislators wanting to stick the entire bill on ratepayers and taxpayers.  The same holds true for Georgia, where construction is still in process, with the feds opting another $12 billion subsidy.  When this project eventually gets canceled, or comes on line 5-10 years later, the cost of that electricity will be definitely noncompetitive. The same kinds of problems continue in the UK, France, and Finland.  Nuclear power plants are obsolete in today’s changing renewable world, and the promise of new, smaller reactors will make no difference.

The issue of spent fuel storage (HLW) is now getting some mention, with a recent push to get on with Yucca Mountain.  Again, that will not happen, because of the scientific, geologic, as well as the political/moral constraints.  What is now making a re-appearance though, is the privatization of waste management and storage. 

The new player is a private company called Holtec, which manufactures dry casks for spent fuel storage.  They want to build a facility (basically a large pad) where dry casks would be shipped from all over the US to their site in New Mexico.  There, the casks would be monitored and guarded until…???  It would take somewhere between 10-15,000 casks to contain all the spent fuel rods in the US.  They would have to be stored above ground because of the heat emitted, and would be vulnerable to erosion, sabotage, accidents, etc.  The nearby WIPP project, which is trying to store not-so-hot military wastes in a salt cavern is already leaking and exploding after only five years, and now under review. 
At Humboldt Bay, we have 6 Holtec casks.  They are smaller than the ones for most plants, and cost about $1 million each.  I took about 6 weeks, and $8 million to load and prepare each cask for its placement in our below grade bunker, and that facility requires about $12 million/year for monitoring and security.  There are 36 casks on site at the decommissioned Trojan plant on the Columbia River, and San Onofre is in a contentious battle with its desire to place about 250 casks right on the beach in Southern California.  The Diablo Canyon plan will require over 300 of these casks.  So do the math…10,000 casks at $10 million each, plus transportation to a central site in New Mexico…big bucks for Holtec and the utilities, since the ratepayers and taxpayers are footing the bill.  Give those CEO’s a bonus!

Another issue coming up revolves around how each state set up the rules for decommissioning funding.  By Federal law, decom funds were to be set aside to ensure the safe and clean dismantlement of nuclear power plants.  In California, The utilities collected money from ratepayers over the years, and put that money into an investment fund where it, for a while at least, grew in value.  PG&E ratepayers, as well as those in the south, are now continuing to pay into this fund for their nukes.  Things are a bit different in other states.  Some utilities took that money and invested it in ventures such as building more nuclear power plants!   Things got/get complicated when the feds allowed utilities to sell nuclear units to private firms.  The decom funds were supposed to go with the plants in the sale, but some of that money has in some cases disappeared.  The funds that do exist on the books are most often very low in respect to the actual cost of decommissioning.  Add that to the fact that many of these nuclear companies have gone through bankruptcy, buyouts, subsides (as is the case of Vermont Yankee and a few other plants back east beginning the decommissioning dialogue) and the ratepayer/taxpayer---you and I will eventually wind up paying the bills.  So much for cheap nuclear power.  They argue we can’t afford health care for all Americans , but for probably the same amount of money, we will spend it on the back end of nuclear power.

Seven years into the fiasco at Fukushima, and still there is no sign of anyone having a clue as to what to do with this site that is leaking contamination into our environment.  The $322 million ice wall is a failure, and the increasing amount of radioactive contaminated water, soil, and other materials is taking up a lot of room on this small island nation. The true exorbitant cost of decommission continues to elude the media and the public, while, CEOs, lawyers, lobbyists, and politicians continue to make millions of dollars, perpetuating the hoax that we need clean, cheap, and safe nukes if our societies are to survive.

The recent media frenzy that we will soon have fusion power (some say by 2028) continues he hoax and fraud of promises of unlimited clean electricity.  Not going to happen, at least in our lifetime.  It is so complex…temperatures in the millions of degrees, the structures and technology to contain the self-sustaining fusion reaction, and all the rest of the facilities necessary to convert that heat into electricity is mind-boggling and is not going to be cheap.  But again, the gullible public is being misled by the promise of dollars.

On the fossil fuel side, things again do not bode well for the coal industry, in spite of the subsidies, deregulation, and policies offered up by this administration.  It just cannot compete in cost, and in creating jobs.  The oil industry seems to be doing well…the goal for America to be the biggest producer and exporter of oil is pretty close…with gasoline around $3.50 a gallon today.  Subsidies and deregulation continue, and transportation taxes loom in the future.

On the positive side, solar and wind are doing quite well, considering all the obstacles in place to keep businesses and individuals from taking matters into their own hands.  There is rapid growth worldwide, with China leading the way.  They exported 37,000MW of solar panels in 2017…that’s the equivalent of 37 large nuclear power plants…in just one year.  World wide, solar provides an amount equal to total nuclear capacity, at c cheaper cost, with no huge decommissioning and waste storage costs.  The potential for growth, in manufacturing, job creation, CO2 mitigation, and a sustainable energy future is becoming apparent, and will blossom within our lifetime.  Again, as I’ve said, this is not a black-white situation as so many critics expound.  We will always have a mix of energy resources…oil, gas, even nuclear, along with solar, wind, and any other forms that become viable; and hopefully they will be used appropriately, determined by economics, geographic and technological limitations, time, and political will.

Wind is where the huge potential exists in the near future.  Moving offshore, where there is an almost constant airflow, and eventually coupled with the power of the movement of the oceans, the technology is rapidly entering the mainstream as the new grid infrastructure improves to accommodate renewables.  GE, who is on the verge of bankruptcy because of their emphasis on gas turbines, is developing a 12MW turbine in France (why aren’t they doing it in the US?).  Here in Humboldt County, plans are being discussed for a 100MW farm, with 10-15 turbines anchored 24 miles off-shore.  Many European countries already have the technology and experience to prove this potential’s viability. 

As I’ve mentioned many times before, the next crucial piece of this whole energy puzzle is storage…capturing excess electricity production when it is not needed, for use when it is.  Again, giant strides are being made all over the world, with installations in Australia highlighting the potential.  Starting from near zero not many years ago, the growth of lithium-ion battery production and implementation is about to exponentially take off. I still believe that hydrogen/fuel cells will eventually become equally important!
All this is happening in spite of all the deliberate obstacles…the misinformation, lies, tax proposals, tariffs, and the basic disregard of science and technology by the current administration and those who prop it up.  Climate change is real, and it has been impacting us in so many increasingly different ways.  It is a shame that we choosing an economic blind eye, when we could be building our economy, jobs, clean air and water, and more affordable and equitable world.  Maybe we really need to join hands, kneel down, and pray.

Just a few recent interesting pieces:










Tuesday, November 21, 2017

A Thansgiving Plateau for Solar Energy



A quick update worthy of a true Thanksgiving.  Two new stunning reports on solar energy are demonstrating the rapid transition in world-wide electricity generation.

The first involves China (no surprise).  Tongwei will spend $1.8 Billion in the next two years to build two 10 GW PV manufacturing facilities.  What this means, is that two-three years from now, each of these plants will be putting on the market the equivalent of TEN nuclear or coal-fired plants.  That's 20,000 megawatts of generating capacity…per year.  And the following year, another 20,000MW; and the year following that another 20,000MW.  In ten years, this one company in its two manufacturing facilities will have built the equivalent of 200 nuclear power plants! 

“The investment is part of Tongwei’s plan to achieve 30 GW of cell capacity. Its current 5.4 GW makes Tongwei the world’s fourth-biggest solar-cell producer, and the company has an additional 4.3 GW of capacity under construction.  The world’s largest cell maker, Shanghai-based JA Solar Holdings Co, has an annual capacity of 6.5 GW, and add this to all the manufacturers in Korea, Japan, Germany, and the US, and there is really no shortage of new generating potential in the world.  Of course, the other part of the equation is storage, and progress is being made in both battery technology, and of course, my pick…hydrogen/fuel cell for large-scale grid storage.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-05/better-than-a-battery-big-energy-backs-hydrogen-power-storage

The second major bombshell comes from the very reputable US investment firm Lazard.

https://thinkprogress.org/solar-wind-keep-getting-cheaper-33c38350fb95/

“Building new renewables is now cheaper than just running old coal and nuclear plants.”  All the “costs” of energy technologies are starting to make their way to the front of the balance sheet.  Not only are new construction costs for old-school steam-generating plants the main issue, but, the cost of fuel, maintenance, repair, upgrades, wastes disposal, and environmental compliance now are being quantified in the deliberation of energy policy.  Already, renewables are displacing new fossil construction, so now their impact on actually replacing older units is significant.  Natural gas will continue to be the appropriate transition fuel during the development of storage and new grid technologies.

The current administration is fighting this battle with hopes of derailing the renewable train.  A proposed 20% tariff on imported “cheap” (because they are subsidized by the Chinese government) solar panels will put a dent in the progress of our renewable businesses.  However, most of them say that within a few years, the costs of solar panels will be so low, that that tariff won’t make any difference.  The US is not supporting its solar industries, by slowly repealing subsidies and credits, increasing tariffs and taxes, and blocking most legislation aimed at science, technology, business, and job creation.  Instead, there are proposed new subsidies in the works for coal and nuclear, as well as a continuation of the enormous subsidies for the oil industry. 

The same issues face the wind industry, whose exponential growth is being implemented world-wide.  Renewables (solar and wind) are the future, in spite of the huge political bias against them.

Happy Thanksgiving!!!!!!!!!!!

PS  An accident, most-likely at a nuclear reprocessing facility in southern Russia, and released radioactivity into the atmosphere.  Heard about it?????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-nuclearpower-accident/russia-finds-1000-times-normal-level-of-radioactive-isotope-after-nuclear-incident-claims-idUSKBN1DL0X2