Climate Change

For what it’s worth….

Richard Muller, for many years a Koch brothers funded mouthpiece as a “reputable”, “honorable”, “real scientist” climate change denier, has turned traitor.  His new study at UC Berkeley, 25%funded by the Koch brothers show overwhelming data that human induced climate change is occurring.  Why the change??…I guess they didn’t offer him enough money????  Maybe he is a “real” scientist and has finally analyzed his own data and that of the other 97% climate scientists, and has some moral principles to boot!

http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2012/0730/Prominent-climate-change-denier-now-admits-he-was-wrong-video

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/03/28/207772/koch-richard-muller-gore-cicerone-polar-bears-friedman/

http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/en/campaigns/global-warming-and-energy/polluterwatch/koch-industries/

http://berkeleyearth.org/donors/

It’s been quite a year so far………………

Unstated costs of Nuclear Power

While most concern is about the high cost of constructing new nuclear power plants, the real dilemma is in the “hidden” costs of the back end…the  waste/decommissioning issues.

The industry has always and still falsely asserted that nuclear power is the cheapest way to generate electricity.  This premise is based on a real slight of hand in hiding and not accounting for the “true” and real costs associated with the kwhs produced AFTER the plant has run its life.

We are still being told that nukes produce electricity at 1.5 to 3 cents/kwh.  This may be true, and is referred to as O&M (operating and maintenance) costs.  This usually includes fuel costs, and the day to day running of the plant.  It DOES NOT include capital investment, financing, major retrofits, decommissioning, and waste management.  If we apply the SAME cost analysis, solar O&M costs are less than 1 cent/kwh…the fuel is free, and operating cost are really negligible.  In many cases, the capital investment in solar is cheaper than today’s nuclear, and those costs are coming down.

The high “cost” of solar is due to our bookkeeping methodology, which discriminates against solar because the sun only shine for about a third of the time versus a power plant that runs full time.  There is no differentiation on the value of the electricity.  (More on this later.)

Meanwhile, here is an interesting piece from today’s news. 

http://www.wbay.com/story/19043238/nuclear-waste-being-hauled-out-of-wisconsin-plant

The La Crosse reactor was a small 50MW nuke, similar to the Humboldt Bay nuke, that was shut down in 1987.  The spent fuel has been stored in a wet pool for 25 years.  At Humboldt Bay, the cost of maintaining the pool when it was operative was about $1 million/yr.  The estimated cost of putting the La Crosse fuel into dry storage is $45m.  So, we have about $70m in waste management that did NOT appear on the customer’s energy bill.  Somebody is paying for that now…and the final bill is not in.  Security at Humboldt Bay today is around $12m/yr for the 5 dry casks, and this waste may stay on site for the next 20…50…??? years.   And we don’t know how/if/where/how much this spent fuel will be dealt with in the future.  Like Humboldt Bay, the decommissioned Trojan plant is costing the Northwest ratepayers some $10-15m/yr…an unidentified “tax” on their monthly bill, that will probably never go away…paying for the “cheap” electricity generated back in the late ‘70’s and early ‘80’s.

The NRC just approved Indian Point’s conversion to dry cask storage.

http://peekskill.patch.com/articles/nrc-approves-entergy-plan-for-spent-fuel

Interesting issue here is that the fuel will be placed in a transfer cask, transported out of the fuel building, and then re-transferred into the permanent cask.  This has to be done underwater because of shielding requirements, and involves multiple handling of the fuel…very expensive, but probably cheaper than installing a larger crane in the old radioactive building.  No cost estimate on this procedure has been given; BUT, it will be paid for by the consumers, some of whom may have benefited from the “cheap” nuclear electricity generated by that fuel in the past. 
All this is happening/going to happen at all of the 105 nuclear plants we have in the US.  Expensive?  Who pays?  Cheap, cost effective electricity?  And then of course, what will the cost of final disposition of all the spent fuel be…Yucca Mountain cost $14 billion before it was abandoned, and the estimate in 2002 was over $100 billion to deal with this stuff in the future.  I’m sure that cost has not come down as rapidly as the cost of Chinese solar.

So, we’re being hornswaggled…from the front and rear!  We most likely won’t be building anymore new nukes, so we just need to keep bending over! 

Fiscal conservatism…cost effectiveness…big money business at its finest.

Comparing Costs of Solar and Nuclear

In a recent Forbes article, the most glaring parameter is that the sun doesn’t always shine…a standard availability being 20-30%.  So, if you compare that solar production strictly against a base-load generator with a 70-80% capacity, you come up with a very big negative for solar, as well as other renewable. 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/07/08/the-direct-costs-of-energy-hydronuclear-best-solar-still-lagging/

What is missing in this cost analysis is the “true” value of the electricity…other than just a  price per KWH.  Solar is peak demand KWHs…especially valuable and most probably more than cost effective and competitive on hot summer days when air-conditioning demand is at its highest.  There is usually no distinction between cost/kwh during the day and night when demand is low, and when a lot of costly generators are turned off.  As with so many aspects of the environment/climate change, the “true” costs and implications are marginalized.

Another strike against solar PV is the life expectancy of the panels itself.  For many years, a 20 year life was used…I guess today it is 25 years.  The argument was/is that there is not enough actual use history to extend that timeframe, even though those panels may work for 50, 60, ?? years.  A nuclear power plant has a license for 40 years, and most industrial facilities have a 30-40 year life expectancy.  So, if you depreciate, spread cost out over that life-expectancy timeframe, whatever economic  gimmick you use, etc...solar is at a big disadvantage.

http://www.nmsea.org/Curriculum/7_12/Cost/calculate_solar_cost.htm#Calculation%20of%20life-cycle%20cost%20per%20kilowatt-hour

One last point I usually make in my arguments is that the real cost of nuclear decommissioning and radioactive waste disposal is extremely understated.  Here at the Humboldt Bay Reactor which we are decommissioning, the cost is in excess of $0.12/kwh for the electricity it produced in its 14 year run.  The cost of dry storage of the fuel is about $12 million /yr until 2020…and after that, who knows what.

I know this is all so complex, and I am not an economist, but for all these years I have felt slighted by the “powers that be” in all my activism for sustainable, renewable energy. 

Happy 4th of July, America!

A few current news trends as we celebrate the birthday of the great American dream.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501363_162-57461141/$12.3-billion-hanford-plant-sees-new-costs-delays/

Gee, we could have used the Solyndra money to help pay for this!  Tsk, tsk.

http://www.thestate.com/2012/07/01/2337595/nj-eyes-sc-site-for-radioactive.html

You’ve got to put it somewhere…SC is probably as good a place as any!  Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, Wisconsin???????

http://www.ajc.com/business/japan-nuke-utility-shareholders-1465305.html

Nuclear subsidies?  The world over!  “The total amount of public money injected into Japan’s TEPCO is now at 2.5 trillion yen ($30.7 billion).”  Here in the US, we could have probably built one and a half new reactors for that amount.

Today, California is expected to hit a summer peak demand of  about 35,000MW, with available resources of 45,000MW…that gives about a 25% reserve…not bad.  All this without the 2200MW from the shut down San Onofre nukes.

http://www.caiso.com/outlook/SystemStatus.html

As Japan begins to come to its senses and initiates investments into renewables, the demand for PV, wind, and other technologies will increase.  Too bad the US has abandoned its renewables industries…most of the product demand and jobs will go to China and Germany.  Another lost opportunity due to short-sightedness!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-01/softbank-to-build-japan-biggest-solar-plant-as-incentive-starts.html

http://www.thejapannews.net/index.php?sid/207098258/scat/3a8a80d6f705f8cc

As the world deals with extreme weather, we continue to  spend our “intelligent” efforts dealing with gay marriage, immigration, minimizing healthcare for the poor, and further enriching the rich with more riches.

'CATASTROPHIC' DAMAGE TO POWER GRIDS...

This is just the beginning…will it get better?  Or worse?  Do you believe the scientists, or the fossil fuel industry lackeys?  Time will tell…eventually the economic damage will reach such proportions that even the real fiscal conservatives will have their eyes and ears opened…as well as their pocketbooks.

Happy 4^th of July, America!  The best democracy money can buy.

Off to Weiser tomorrow, so I thought I would update my thoughts and insights before I become "brainless."

The nuclear industry continues to stumble along.  In spite of increased cost estimates, the two Georgia reactors are still under construction, and it will be interesting to see if they are finished at all, let alone on schedule and on budget as promised.  Increased cost estimates have  failed to deter the continued push for new reactors in Florida and for the TVA in Tennessee.  After all, it's mostly public money, and CEO's are getting big salaries on all this.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/energy/progress-energys-levy-county-nuclear-project-carries-on-despite-early-and/1232464  and
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/05/utiliites-tva-wattsbar-idUSL2E8F548S20120405

Nuclear waste was issued a big blow when the courts ruled that on-site storage of fuel will be limited to 30 years.  Oh, what to do, what to do.  The Blue Ribbon Commission said it so well…there is NO solution to the nuclear waste issue.  So, we will thrown the ball around again, spend billions of taxpayer dollars trying to find a "political" solution, since it seems we've given up on SCIENCE in this country.
http://www.newstimes.com/news/article/Court-rules-against-60-years-of-storage-of-3620443.php

Things aren't any better in Europe.  They are just beginning to address the extreme high costs of decommissioning, and they haven't even begun to look at the waste issue.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/how-hard-is-it-to-dismantle-150-nuclear-reactors-europes-about-to-find-out/2012/06/09/gJQA2EH0PV_blog.html?wprss=rss_policy
It's all still a dream.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-06/french-nuclear-watchdog-says-orders-won-at-too-low-prices.html

Meanwhile, in spite of the enormous and expensive effort by the Kock brothers and their "Americans for Prosperity" and other extreme right-wing  big money fossil fuel climate change deniers, renewables are doing quite well in the world.
http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2012/06/11/1981737/record-investment-in-renewable.html#storylink=rss  and
http://www.ocean-resources.com/industry-news.asp?newsid=11671

Too bad the old guard "Oldsmobiles" are spending so much money opposing the "Green Revolution."  Think of the jobs, the local developments, the sustainability, and the economic and environmental benefits we would be having now, if only….
But of course, it's all about education…..
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/06/12/498376/americans-for-prosperity-plans-protest-against-extremist-kids-flying-kites-in-support-of-wind/
and it's all about money…
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/report-gop-outside-groups-plan-spend-more-1-142453576.html

Too bad about Solyndra…just shocking!
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-28/bankrupt-nuclear-waste-firm-impact-services-gets-deadline   and
http://markey.house.gov/press-release/markey-burgess-call-gao-investigation-doe-support-near-bankrupt-usec
Fire up those subsidies.

Meanwhile, those dumb Chinese are moving head with new companies with a lot of help from the government.
http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2012/05/green_jobs_how_china_and_solyndra_left_america_s_solar_power_companies_fighting_each_other_for_scraps_.single.html
and in Taiwan
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan-business/2012/06/02/343055/Cheng-Uei.htm

It is going to be an interesting summer in California with two of its big nuclear reactors shut down.  The loss of 2200MW from San Onofre will be displaced by the 5000MW of renewables now available on the grid.  More later.

Enjoy the summer!

Electricity at a Crossroads

We are at a crossroads in a lot of social, political, economical, environmental, and moral issues, not only in this country, but throughout the world.

Here at home, three main issues need to be addressed in the future of electricity planning.

1.        Our power plants and transmission grid system is getting old, and need massive replacement and upgrades. 

2.        Regulations on pollution and climate change gases will continue to get tighter, as science and the resultant ramifications eventually trump politics.

3.        The cost of cleaner renewables is rapidly coming down, and beginning to gain significant market share.

The current cost of building two new nuclear reactors in Georgia is estimated between $14-25 billion.  Just to replace the 100+ current reactors in the US which will soon end their lives will potentially cost $2+ trillion??!!  Add another trillion $$$s for upgrading the grid, decommissioning those nukes, isolating nuclear wastes, and other technical necessities, and the future costs are astronomical. 

Meanwhile, Solyndra and other solar companies are going bankrupt because they cannot compete with the decreasing costs of solar equipment.  A lot of this is driven by the huge subsidies China is giving its solar industries, which we should also be doing.  Instead we quibble yearly about renewable tax credits and incentives, spend millions to “fight” the subversive renewable industry, and offer billions in support of the dying (if not dead) nuclear industry.

One would think that without federal aid and subsidy, renewables would continue to be a “hippie” dream.  Not true!  Solar and wind are making major inroads in this country’s energy mix in spite of the “big” business model.  It all boils down to the old argument of centralized vs. de-centralized technology.  Where once,  an individual person was responsible on their own for installing solar on their rooftop, there are now associations of residents and neighborhoods leasing and buying into community solar projects, ie. panels on the roof of a large church where individuals and financing entities share in the profits of solar electricity. 

One drawback of solar PV is that it produces DC power, and inverters to make it “grid compatible” were expensive and bulky.  Not any more.  Buy a panel or two, and just plug into a wall socket, and run your meter backwards! 

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57432731-76/got-a-deck-solar-panels-now-a-plug-in-appliance/?part=rss&subj=news&tag=title

And remember, this is coming DOWN in price, as more and more small entrepreneurs , communities, individuals, and local agencies begin to realize the values and benefits…economic, sustainability, environmental, and social...that doing for yourself offers.  Just the tip of the iceberg, and big energy is trying to melt!  Just think of what we could accomplish if we had the full support of the federal government!

Meanwhile, electricity rates continue to go up in Florida for nuclear plants that will never be built

http://www2.hernandotoday.com/news/hernando-news/2012/may/13/hanewso10-nuclear-power-fee-could-spike-next-year-ar-403047/

and the citizens in Japan pay an enormous price for its once blind trust in the nuclear industry.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/japans-tepco-posts-9-76-062016313.html

You know what?  The “big boys” aren’t always that smart!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304192704577402102196099694.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

Which fork in the road do we take?  We’ll see if sanity prevails.  If not, economics will take us down the right (left) path,

My Latest Rant

Excuse my frustrating diatribe, but this issue goes to the heart of my deep concern for the future of this country.  This writing is in response to an ongoing dialogue I have with a friend up north:

I don’t know why I’m wasting my time writing all this because I know you won’t read it or even begin to comprehend what I am saying.  I realize that it is totally useless to try and have an intelligent and logical argument or debate about our opposing views. 

You obviously did not read the article I sent you that started this latest round

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/04/23/MN261O78QA.DTL

because your response has absolutely nothing to do with what it says; and what you did come back with is really the crux of the big problem…with you, and with the whole “Fox Effect” that is prevalent today in any kind of political discussion in this country.

Did you even read the article you threw back at me?  Or did you just look at the headline and make your assumptions…or did Hannity tell you what to think about this issue?

So here is the “real story” from that left wing media CNN

http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/10/news/economy/refineries-gas-prices/index.htm

Yes, 50% of the refining capacity has been shut down in the Northeast.  Why? 

“The refineries are losing money because they are old and cannot process the cheaper, heavier types of oil that are increasingly in supply from Canada's oil sands, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and elsewhere.”  Old refineries have not been upgraded to deal with the new types of oil that are entering the global market.  (Now I can make an assumption here…not supported by the facts, that the oil industry has made billions in profits and not poured money back into new or upgraded refineries and infrastructure.) You make the assumption that it is Obama (and the wacko enviros) that have shut them down due to excessive environmental regulation.  Neither side is supported by what is said in the article.  We would both be wrong…and just stating our biases.  Read…and if you can, and try to comprehend!

Needless to say, the article goes on with “East Coast gasoline shortages are a real possibility -- but not because there isn't enough gasoline in the United States. The real problem lies in transporting that gasoline to the Northeast.”  Hence support for my original article that there is a glut of oil and gasoline in the US, and the industry is exporting product to other places in the world.

Nowhere does the article make any reference to $6 a gallon as you say….”So gas in New York is over $6 a gallon and rising.”  Actually, the current price is $4.11 today (cheaper than in Arcata), and is coming down.  http://www.newyorkgasprices.com/index.aspx?&area=COOPER&area=MANHATTAN&area=NEW+YORK&area=NYC&area=New+York+City

So in my opinion, what you are saying is just pure bullshit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So, what is my "fixation" on Fox, Kocks, Ailes, Rove, et.al.?  I have emailed you my concerns over the years, but obviously you've never read them.  You are mirrored in their media ideology of mis-statements, lies, and distortion…all in the name of news.  Say what you want (whether it's true or not), say it often enough, and it becomes infixed in the brains of the mindless.  Pavlov was a great inspiration for Hitler, Mao, Jong, etc.  Create a menu of headlines, broadcast your interpretation of what the actual articles say, and hope no one actually reads them…and if they did, they’re probably too stupid to understand it and form their own opinion.  You did that exact thing on that article you sent me a while back with the headline claiming manmade global warming is a hoax.  http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/06/458651/fox-news-again-turns-to-tabloid-for-climate-science/  You obviously did not read the article because it had no reference to “man-made influences;” and when I sent you the piece in which the actual scientist argued that he was misquoted and misrepresented by the reporter, and that his research had nothing to do with current climate change…you stood by your argument claiming you believed the “renown scientist.”  You believed the mis-statement of the facts by the reporter…not the scientist! 

Need I say more?   

Very scary…a terrorist threat to this country far greater than Al Queda, the federal deficit, health insurance, or Secret Service parties.  Integrity, morality, honesty, accountability...whatever...the best democracy money can buy!

And as to what I read… I try to look at a wide range of points of view.  Yes, every day I look at Huffington, Think Progress, Politico, Media Matters, Daily Kos…left wing stuff; but I also look at Fox News, Drudge Report, Breitbart. Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, as well as NY Times, BBC, Al Jazeera, LA Times, SF Chronicle, St. Petersburg Times, and I scan Yahoo and MSN news service.  I also have several "collectors" that glean energy articles (no bias) and of course, a big focus on nuclear stuff (again, both sides.)  We don’t really watch TV…no Fox, MSNBC, CNN…although I cruise a few of those channels in between innings of the Giants games!

I guess I pride myself for trying to understand what is going on…sometimes I’m right, sometimes I’m wrong (or left); sometimes I agree; sometimes I disagree.  I'm constantly open to learning something, and I try to make up my own mind, rather than have someone else tell me what to think. Try it sometime!

Yes, I am a conservative...I care about the rights of all human beings and the environment we all live in, which is under attack from the greed and corruption of the few.

 ********************************************************************

Here are the emails exchanges that led to this final discussion!!!!

 EMAIL #4

Gee.................maybe this is not to be believed, as CNN is probably a right winger................

 http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/10/news/economy/refineries-gas-prices/index.htm

 I like your !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!’s...............

What’s with your fixation on fox, kock, etc???           Brainwash works both ways you know......................Huff and Puff................

And, you bet..........I am a conservative...............and I am sure you are too..............

EMAIL #3 Subject: Re: drill baby drill

 READ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There is a glut of oil and gasoline...we are exporting gasoline product!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DUHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Keep listening to the FOX, Kock, Rove, Adelson, etc million dollar bullshit.  You are such a good brainwashed fiscal conservative!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EMAIL #2 Subject: Re: drill baby drill

I am sure you are aware that about 50% of the refineries on the east coast have shut down..........due to excessive EPA regulations, thanks to Obama................

So gas in New Youk is over $6 a gallon and rising................I think it is wonderful…..let them feel the pain…..

EMAIL #1 Subject: drill baby drill

 The US has a huge glut of oil...so much that a tanker carrying Alaskan oil returned to port with about a quarter of its cargo because there was no place to put it!  Yet the price of gasoline is, and is staying at an almost all time high.  Obama's fault...you bet, if you listen to Faux News.

 What is the cause...very complex stuff; but the bottom line is "the power of the world market."  So, we can drill, drill, drill, drill all we want in our National Parks, offshore, in the Arctic, wherever....Romney can personally build the Keystone Pipeline...it would all be like pissing in the ocean, except we'd be dribbling some down our pants!

 http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/04/23/MN261O78QA.DTL