Energy Update for March

It’s been a while since I’ve posted anything of significance on nuclear power, renewables, and the impacts of fossil fuels; but that does not mean nothing has been going on. Here is a (hopefully) brief update of my views. I will put most of my website references down below if you want further reading.

The nuclear dinosaur industry trudges along. The Feds gave approval to the construction of two reactors in Georgia, with an $8.5 billion public subsidy/loan guarantee. We’ll now see if the estimated $14 billion project is completed by 2016, and if it comes in on budget. I have a steak dinner riding on this.

Meanwhile, the other participants in the “nuclear renaissance of 2006” are falling by the wayside. In Florida, where they are already charging customers for construction of two plants that will never get built (isn’t this a tax?…where’s Norquist?), the estimated cost has gone from $5 billion to $22.4 billion…even Progress Energy says this will never be built. Here is a link to the best article in recent time on the cost issues with nuclear.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/energy/cost-of-nuclear-plants-raises-doubts-on-progress-energys-levy-county-plan/1221840

As for the waste issues, nothing new other than the fact that the Blue Ribbon Commission has started that there is NO solution to the radioactive waste problem. Proponents of reprocessing/recycling are being struck a vital blow with the continued problems at Hanford’s vitrification plant, of which we would have to build 5, 10, 20? if were to seriously do reprocessing. This plant is half complete, has huge technical problems, and so far is up to $12 billion. This was to cost $1 billion and was to start operating in 1998.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017819435_hanford23m.html

One year down the road for Fukushima, and things don’t bode well there. It seems the 4 reactors have been somewhat stabilized, but there are huge technical challenges as to what to do next. It will be years before they can even begin to do any kind of cleanup, and that may never happen. Meanwhile, some 100,000 people have been driven from their land, homes, and livelihood, and the economy has taken its toll. I’m surprised that with 53/54 nuclear plants shut down, the Japanese are not living in caves in the dark and eating uncooked food…oops! We’ll never know the health significance of the disaster, since lies, cover-ups, and incompetence prevailed during and after in this highly organized and technical society. Of course the industry continues to spread the propaganda that it wasn’t so bad, and everything is ok now; it can never happen in the US.

The renewable energy industry continues to struggle against all the might that is being thrown at it by the fossil fuel industries. However, despite political and economic setbacks, the deployment of wind and solar is slowly growing and slowly adding to the amount of electricity in our grid; and in spite of the global economic downturn, is doing quite well in other parts of the world. Solar is slowly reaching the point where it doesn’t need subsidies in Germany and Spain. It’s interesting that the big problem seems to be that the production costs are GOING DOWN…creates all kinds of havoc in the manufacturing industry…we didn’t seem to have this problem with the rapid decrease in costs that the computer/chip industry went through back in the ‘90’s and on.

But then, this is all closely linked to the Climate Change issue, so we see huge amounts of money and effort by the Koch brothers and their Heartland Institute and their Cato Institute, Karl Rove and his Crossroads GPS, and all the other big energy players really doing a number on America. The whole Solyndra bankruptcy appears to have been an intentional setup, and it’s interesting that the all-knowing Imhoff from Oklahoma recently said he once believed in climate change, until the money talked to him…God did too!

So in these hilarious times, we can sit back and watch the clowns spend their money and spout their lies…meanwhile the sun still shines, and the wind still blows.

Some interesting reads:

http://thinkprogress.org/green/2012/02/17/428111/exposed-the-19-public-corporations-funding-the-climate-denier-think-tank-heartland-institute/

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Solar+power+station+Spain+works+night/6320158/story.html

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2012/03/german-policy-could-make-solar-in-america-wunderbar

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/03/07/wind-power-companies-paid-to-not-produce/?test=latestnews

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-29/u-s-was-net-oil-product-exporter-in-2011.html

http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Japan-s-radiation-cleanup-is-trial-and-error-3381585.php

Nuclear Waste Disposal

After several years of work, the President's Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future (a highly respected group of nuclear professionals, legislators, and community experts) has released its report on the future of High Level (Spent Fuel) Waste disposal in the US.

In spite of the fact that $15 billion has already been spent on Yucca Mountain and the temporary storage of these wastes since 1998, the group concurs that "America's nuclear waste management program is an impasse." This is due mainly to enormous technical problems, inadequate geologic conditions, and many political issues. Regardless of our wants, wishes, dreams, and promises, the long-term storage of nuclear wastes has eluded scientists since the '40's, and will continue to do so far into the future. Buried on page 100 of the report is a most powerful statement: "…no currently available or reasonably foreseeable reactor and fuel cycle technology developments—including advances in reprocess and recycle technologies—have the potential to fundamentally alter the waste management challenge this nation confronts over at least the next several decades, if not longer."

Setting aside the issues of human safety, environmental impact, nuclear proliferation, terrorism, and geopolitics, I raise the more current ethical and moral question of economics, and what we are passing on to our children and to many, many future generations.

http://brc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/brc_finalreport_jan2012.pdf

Energy Glut

It’s not just the solar industry…it’s everywhere! Lie, cheat, steal, scam…it’s prevalent in human nature, and needs some kind of social system to regulate and keep it in check. It’s called laws and dutiful enforcement.

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/53385458-90/blue-castle-company-decision.html.csp

Natural gas glut…wholesale prices down to the lowest they’ve been in almost 20 years…no impact on what I’m paying PG&E to keep my house warm this winter…same price per therm I’ve been paying for the last 5 or so years.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=114481

Oil glut in America? Ship it out…add value to it by refining it and then exporting it. Price of gasoline here is $3.89…down about 10 cents from a year ago. Produce more American oil…just means more profits on the global market for the big companies. Pure economics…human nature.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/11/exports-driving-record-us-refinery-production.html

http://www.ogj.com/articles/2012/01/api-reports-oil-production-up-product-demand-down-in-2011.html

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oil-earnings-20120126,0,3577969.story

So if you really think that “drill, baby, drill” or the Keystone pipeline is going to have any significant impact on the price of gasoline or our home heating gas in light of the global control that the multinationals have…well…..

Renewables…no exploration, no guessing how much is there, and where….

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-25/u-s-cuts-estimate-for-marcellus-shale-gas-reserves-by-66-.html

These are the thoughts going through my head this morning. I know you think I’m stupid or naïve, or whatever. It seem like common sense to me. The world is not perfect and will never be. The economy drives us…the questions I have are what, who, where, and why. As a business owner for 30 years, I am all for the free enterprise system, making money, less regulation, more opportunity for creativity; but what governs the “spiritual and moral” integrity of commerce? I guess our “values” are very different. My father was an immigrant, no education, could hardly speak decent English…he worked very hard and was an extremely honest and sincere man, and made his fortune. I think of him often, and know he would be proud of my beliefs and values.

Money and Politics

Here is a discussion on differing philosophies in the political arena.

Politics today is really a "money game.” It doesn't make any difference if we know who, or how much has been donated to EITHER side Money is given to Congresspersons...Republicans, Democrats, whoever...on everything from Keystone Pipeline, climate change, abortion, auto mileage standards, meat-packing cleanliness, everything under the sun. It is how the system works right now...always has; but it is getting worse with the Supreme Court decision on corporation personhood. So, we can each point fingers...Obama...bad, bad...Kock brothers...bad, bad...doesn't really get us anywhere...BUT we both recognize the severity of the problem, and its implications.

You and I differ in that you say "no way to stop it" Give up...put out the surrender sign...whatever. I think and believe we can change things...that is what America is all about for me...the opportunity to fight for what is right...at least what I believe to be right. Fight with our military, fight with our votes, and more importantly, fight with our freedom to gather, discuss, and collectively push for change. That is what "Occupy" is all about. Yes, the message is not clearly defined, the battleground is a filthy mess, there is no real direction or leadership...but it signifies a huge upwelling of the (let's continue to call them the 99%ers) against the big money interests (still call them the 1%ers).

You and I want the same thing...a good quality life for ourselves and our friends and family; less government and rules interfering in our lives, and subsequently, less taxes to pay. However, we live in a complex society where we need government bodies to provide us with security, coordinate infrastructure like water, energy, highways, etc, and impose regulations that protect us citizens from physical danger to our health, livelihood, and freedom.

It would be nice if we had an efficient, well run government that served the needs of the people ands the nation. Instead we have a huge, inefficient system that runs on money and lobbying (from all sides and perspectives), and wastes our precious hard earned tax dollars.

Instead of sitting back and moaning and pointing fingers, you should be expending your mind and energies in working towards solutions...not easy to do, but the ultimate human challenge. For example, Common Cause and Robert Reich (I know you think he is liberal, socialist moron) are mounting a campaign to reverse the Citizens United decision. I signed the petition...what will it do, what will happen, I don’t know. But it is a tiny step towards attempting to make the changes I support. I remember a few months ago, when I told you that Susan had closed her Bank of America accounts after 46 years, you responded "you've got them shuddering." You bet. They backed off their $2 fee. Little steps, little notches...it all eventually adds up.

So again, I ask you, in light of your disgust at Obama accepting Buffett's money...what are YOU willing to do about it? If you don't like something in your life, you try and change it. Turn off Fox News and open your eyes and ears to what is really going on in this country, and the world as a whole. Let's hear some positive ideas towards solution.

The Profit in Oil

Chevron Corp. said Wednesday that its fourth-quarter profit will be "significantly" below third-quarter results, partly because of weaker profit margins on refining and selling fuels.

http://news.yahoo.com/chevron-warns-4q-earnings-below-3q-results-224639966.html

You can expect gasoline prices to go up to counter the reduced revenue due to less demand by drivers. Blame it on Iran or whoever. Drill, baby, drill…get that US oil into the global market…I’m sure that will get gasoline prices back down to $2/gal. Exxon and others will follow suit and report a decline in revenues…Wall Street will react…our fragile economy will shudder.

An interesting fact is that these oil giants make lots of money in the entire fuel chain. Here, Chevron is going to make most of its profit from exploration and production. These oil companies own all the stages of oil: exploration, production, transportation, refining, more transportation, and actual sales of product. In 1998, Exxon made more profit from exploration than any other sector, due to the low price of global oil. How that works is let’s say Exxon funds $1 billion for exploration somewhere. The money goes to sub-companies and contractors that are owned by Exxon, and, of course, they operate at a profit. Jobs are created, equipment is purchased, the use of ships, helicopters, computers, etc (all owned by Exxon) is very expensive, but those costs are written off by Exxon as expenses. They get back more in profits than what they actually shelled out, pay little in taxes, and above all, this is subsidized by the American people…otherwise they wouldn’t do any of it. Let’s say I own a company that makes widgets…how can I make more profit from finding the materials I use in making the widgets, than from selling the widgets themselves? Clean, pure, true capitalism!

This is the MAIN reason why we are so behind in implementing our renewable resources. There is no exploration, production (wells in the Gulf), or transportation (remember the Exxon Valdez) to refineries. The only need of renewables is capturing the resource (sun, wind) on site, and converting it into electricity, heat, hydrogen, or whatever. You lose out on the most profitable part of our energy scheme, and the huge energy industry has consistently spent huge amounts of money lobbying, bribing, and putting out lies and misinformation for their own gain.

Cheap, cost-effective, clean, safe, sustainable energy…in the eyes of the beholder.

Back At It

"The EIA’s latest report on energy sources and usage in the United States, which covers the nine months ended September, the nine-month total for both renewable production and consumption were higher than those for nuclear power. The EIA showed 6.944 quadrillion Btus, or “quads,” of energy generated from renewable sources in the first nine months of 2011, compared with 6.173 quads from nuclear power."

Here's just a couple of important considerations regarding the cost of the electricity.

We hear about the high cost of renewables...this is relatively NEW technology and NEW installations, compared to old nuclear power plants that were built 30-40 years ago. Those plants will soon reach the end of their lives and will have to be decommissioned. New nuclear power will be very much more expensive...so much so that we may only build 3-4 new reactors. So the real argument centers on what is the "current" cost of renewables vs nuclear. All that will be very different in the future.

The 6+ quads of electricity generated have a "current" cost. The renewables have finished generating their electricity...X cents per kilowatt/hour. The nuclear kw/hrs generated still have a "future" cost associated with them...decommissioning, high level and low level waste disposal and storage, and the clean up of the front fuel fabrication facilities. The cost of this is unknown...but is recognized to be very expensive down the road. It is not dealt with, because it is put off many years into the future, and WE won't have to pay for it...but SOMEONE (your kids, grandkids, great-grandkids, etc) will have to pay the price in the future.

A third consideration is that the cost of most renewables (most notably PV solar) is rapidly coming down, while the cost of new nuclear is escalating every year. ALL energy resources have been traditionally subsidized by the Federal government. The main point today is how level a playing field have we set up for these electricity generating technologies. We create subsidies and incentive policies for renewables that expire every couple of years and have to be renewed. This is not true for nuclear, and especially not true for the oil industry (we still have the oil depletion allowance policy that was enacted back in the '20's) We give the nuclear industry 40 year licenses (and for some 20 year extensions) to write down their debt; but we give the solar industry 15-20 years, even though these are intermittent generators, and plying them face to face on "traditional" economic values does not work.

The growth of the renewable industry is remarkable, even in today's economy; and the costs are coming down. It will soon come to a point where subsidies may net even be needed. Like any industry, the "market" plays of companies, the bankruptcies, the technological gains and failures are no different than the auto industry, the VHS/Beta debacle, the Olympus scandal, and Solyndra. Companies may come and go, but the technology is here today, and will only increase dramatically in the future.

Renewables have a place right now providing "peak power" electricity, and once we begin to seriously implement storage technologies (like hydrogen), they WILL become the mainstay of NEW electricity generation not only in the US, but the rest of the world.

A policy shift CAN occur fairly rapidly and at any time WE decide to create that change. As always, the potential for clean, sustainable, cost-effective, decentralized elect is huge. The problem is no one person or entity can own the sun or wind. But that one person or entity can sure buy their influence in policy making.

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2012/01/09/renewable-energy-passed-nuclear-as.html?ana=RSS&s=article_search&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+bizj_eastbay+%28East+Bay+Business+Times%29

America at the end of 2011

We disagree on many things…that’s great…it’s the human condition. We can argue, poke fingers, call names, threaten, joke, teach, learn…all those wonderful experiences that make up our lives. This is the greatest piece of America…the freedom to do this…and whether we agree or not on an issue, whether we condone civil disobedience, whatever…the value is in our “true” democracy…to hear as much as possible, to think clearly, and to individually make our choices and decisions based on OUR understanding and beliefs.

This separates us from all those countries and societies where this freedom is squashed. I fear that there are forces in this country that are taking us in the wrong direction from what I believe America is all about.

Just one example is well stated in the internet posting below…the message being…it doesn’t matter what YOU believe about climate change. The big $$$s, Faux News, Kock brothers, Grover Norquist, and others have teamed up in a concerted effort to circumvent the whole “democratic” process…discussion and debate! No longer can individual Republican leaders make their own decisions…they HAVE stick to the “party” line, whether it is climate change, raising taxes, gay rights…or face enormous economic/political pressure in their re-election.

You can’t buy morality!

“What happened to the Republican consensus on climate change? Three years ago, prominent Republicans including Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rep. John Boehner (R-OH), Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI), Tim Pawlenty, and Sarah Palin all expressed belief in human-caused climate change. Several even voiced strong support for policies to cap and reduce carbon pollution. Today, all six of these leaders have joined the rest of the Republican Party in a sudden and near-unified retreat to silence or denial.

It’s not the science that has changed — it’s only gotten stronger. What has changed, according to the National Journal, are the types and relative strengths of pressures on GOP lawmakers”.

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/12/08/383676/koch-americans-for-prosperity-bullying-gop-climate-denial/