End of June Update

After being gone for a few weeks, here is take on what is going on at Fukushima, and it doesn’t seem very positive.

It is now confirmed that the fuel melted inside the reactor vessels of Units 1, 2, & 3; and has breached and melted through the thick steel walls. This alone makes this “accident” the most serious technological failure in history. The sea water that is being pumped in to cool the fuel is leaking right back out and flooding the drywell and basement. This water is very radioactive, and prevents anyone getting in there to “seal” the leaks, which will be very difficult to do. The first order is to do something with the 25+million gallons of water that can’t just be released back into the ocean. Areva, from France, has installed a water treatment facility, but it isn’t working. Seems the water is more radioactive than first thought, and it clogged the filters in a very short period of time. Once the system is hopefully up and running, it will clean the water so it can be recycled back into the reactors for cooling, picking up more radioactivity in the process, until the leaks are sealed. This may take years to accomplish. It is estimated that the filters will produce 2-3000 cubic meters of highly radioactive sludge, which must be contained and stored. In the US, sludge was put into tanks at Hanford which eventually leaked and are still being dealt with after years and hundred of millions of dollars. The plan in Japan is to store the sludge in about 2000 canisters which will then be stored someplace until some kind of repository or new technology can deal with them. Pretty expensive! Let the kids deal with it!

It will be years before the three reactors are stabilized, and they probably will never be fully decommissioned. Estimates are $100+ billion…probably more than the net worth of the entire Japanese nuclear industry.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jlXd5_F1goJBmZByasNwAiP6EoRA?docId=d223ba8d656345f2972d68b492c83187

http://www.boston.com/business/technology/articles/2011/06/24/robot_drone_fail_on_japan_nuke_plant_missions/

It’s all about water:

http://www.businessinsider.com/residents-near-fukushima-are-pissing-radioactive-urine-2011-6

Here in the US, flooding threatens several nukes in the Midwest. Although shut down, Fort Calhoun is now on backup emergency power to keep everything cool and working. Acts of God, acts or terrorism, acts of human stupidity…all our nukes are vulnerable. But for now, everything is fine!

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_MISSOURI_RIVER_FLOODING_NUCLEAR_SAFETY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-06-27-09-36-51

Another major issue that will be addressed soon is the relicensing of old power plants. Original licenses were for 40 years, which translates to 30 years of operation, since refueling and maintenance requires long down times. Since most of our plants were built in the 60’s and 70’s, they are rapidly coming due for closure. Since building new ones is very expensive, and decommissioning will cost way more than their original construction, the industry wants to keep running the old ones, since most of them are already paid for; and they generate cheap electricity, since the utilities don’t have to contend with future costs of decommissioning and waste storage, insurance, etc. The NRC has pretty much rubber stamped the relicensing process without any serious reflection on the consequences. All this will be called to question in the near future.

Sort of like running a 1972 Ford Fairlane with 250,000 miles on it.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/20/us-nuclear-regulators-safety-industry_n_880222.html

As for the continuing debate on the storage of High Level Wastes, more politics comes into the mix. This month, the Blue Ribbon Panel appointed by Obama will issue it’s report. Both sides will have a field day…science vs. politics…sort of like the whole climate change issue.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11176/1156265-115-0.stm?cmpid=healthscience.xml

On last quip…a very interesting article on renewables by the military.

http://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/201107/blood-and-oil.aspx

In spite of it’s political PR on building 26 nuclear reactors by 2025, reality and intelligence pervades even the super rich!

http://blogs.forbes.com/williampentland/2011/06/24/solar-heats-up-in-saudi-arabia/

It’s sunny today…supposed to rain tomorrow!

Update on the Humboldt Bay nuke

This is an update you on what is going on with the decommissioning of our local Humboldt Bay Nuclear Power, and the demolition of the two old Fossil Fuel units which have been replaced by our new state-of-the-art engines.

Last year, I reported that the decommissioning estimate had risen from $378.5M to "about" $500M. After pressuring PG&E, I finally got some specific numbers at our Citizen's Advisory Board meeting last night. The decom process is at its half way point. A lot of major pieces of equipment have been removed, but a lot of serious work and a lot of hauling away remains. The cost estimate is now $600M, and the project should be complete by the end of 2015. This cost does include a $40M expenditure to guard and maintain the spent fuel that is in dry cask storage on site from 2015 to 2020. A lot can change in the next 4-9 years. The Trust fund is currently at $305M, and PG&E is collecting $14M/year from its ratepayers. They say that the fund is making money from fixed-income investments (I hope it isn't Bernie Maddoff"s) and at some point within the next 10 years, all this will be paid for.

Just a little mind exercise, to put things in perspective!?

The 62MW Humboldt Bay Nuclear Power Plant was built for $33 million, and operated from 1962 to 1976. An optimistic estimate of 5.5 billion KWH was generated during its 14 year operational life. The current cost to decommission is close to $600 million. That comes out to about 11 cents/KWH for that nuclear electricity…just for decommissioning! Whew! There are about 100 more nuclear plants in the US that will have to be decommissioned, and paid for by future generations. And the high-level waste???$$$$$$??????

On the Fossil side, the demolition cost is somewhere around $75M. That work will be done by the end of August...pretty impressive to see this thing come down.

These are the two old 60MW natural gas boilers, turbines, and generators

Here the units were shrink-wrapped in plastic to create a negative atmosphere inside

for the asbestos removal..this was three months ago

Today. All this will be gone by the end of August

The nuclear unit (#3) is out of sight to the right, and will remain until about 2014

Currently, all this is providing 400 good paying jobs here in Humboldt County! Our "tax" dollars at work!

Weekly Energy Update, June 6th

A nice summary by Paul Gipe, a leader in renewables for many years, posted at:

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/06/06/237150/stunner-new-nuclear-costs-as-much-as-german-solar-power-today-and-up-to-0-34kwh-in-2018/

“Little data exists on the actual cost of new nuclear generation. Rumors persist in Ontario, Canada that the government’s delay in building its promised new reactors was due to “sticker shock” after receiving costly proposals. Whatever the reason for delay, the actual cost of the proposals are being hidden from public view.

The 186-page report, 2010 Comparative Costs of California Central Station Electricity Generation, found that a 1,000 MW Pressurized Water Reactor would generate electricity in 2018 from as little as $0.17/kWh to as much as $0.34/kWh.

The 157 page report by Versicherungsforen Leipzig estimated that the premium necessary to insure a nuclear reactor from accident would cost from €0.14/kWh ($0.20/kWh) to a staggering €2.36/kWh ($3.40/kWh).

Thus, the cost to insure a nuclear reactor — at a minimum — would cost as much as the electricity itself from a nuclear plant built in California in 2018.

Renewable energy, even costly solar photovoltaics, begins to look like a bargain to consumers when realistic costs of new nuclear plants come to light.”

Nothing new to report on Fukushima…they are still struggling to figure things out.

It will take years to wean ourselves off of nuclear power. Meanwhile the debates rage on.

Saudi Arabia announced that they will build 16 new reactors over the next 20 years.

That will never happen. Interesting ploy to support the diversion away from renewables.

Last week, the financial officer for oil development in Saudi Arabia said on CNN:

“BIN TALAL: The stiff position of Saudi Arabia, we want the price to be between $70 and $80. Not only to help the West, but also to help ourselves. We don’t want the West to go and find alternatives, because, clearly, the higher the price oil goes, the more you have incentive to go and find alternatives. So, really, our interest coincides with American interest, to have the price for around $70, $80 which is a price good for consumers and producers.”

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2011/06/01/Saudi-Arabia-to-build-16-nuclear-reactors/UPI-48881306926260/

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/154170/20110530/saudi-prince-seeks-to-discourage-western-alternatives-to-high-priced-oil.htm

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It’s all about the money…the status quo...the big money controlled by the Kock brothers, etc. No care about the future.

"The Tea Party congress hates the idea that the nation could be weaned off its energy dependence, or fossil fuels. They hate renewable energy because their primary sponsors in the fossil fuel industry want above all to slow progress on that front, and drag the nation back into the 19th century [see the CP post, "David Koch pulls the strings of the Tea Party extremists"].

We’ve seen a number of these over recent months, now the anti-science crusade continues. Lead by Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO), 9 members of congress have now asked for the closure of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, CO."

http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_18203985

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Meanwhile, the floods continue, tornados and hurricanes blow by, drought and wildfires rage, food prices go up, CEOs are getting bigger bonuses, and we’re still worried about gays and abortions.

“…a nuclear waste advisor to the Japanese government reported that about 373 square miles near the Fukushima power station — an area roughly 17 times the size of Manhattan — may now be uninhabitable.”

Thoughts on Veteran's Day

In honor of all the Vets who sacrificed so much for this country, I'm cognizant of all the enemies out there, both internal and external, who continue to threaten the basic values of America. The fight goes on.

Just a short quip....I've been saying and arguing this point for a long time.

"Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ), a Chinese maker of solar panels, rose the most in more than two months after it formed a joint venture with GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Inc. to build a 600-megawatt solar wafer plant.

The plant, which can be expanded to 1.2 gigawatts of annual capacity, will cost $77 million...

Canadian Solar expects the venture to reduce its manufacturing costs starting in the first quarter of 2012..."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-31/canadian-solar-surges-on-wafer-production-joint-venture-in-china.html

The significance of this is that this manufacturing plant will produce 600mw of generating capacity each year for the life-span of its operation...30 years or so (18,000mw!). Compare this to building a single 1200mw nuclear power plant for $10-12 billon, which would take ten years to construct, and then produce enormous future decommissioning and waste costs, and other problems...even a fifth grader can figure that out. The global renewable energy industry is expanding very rapidly, and will do so even more as Germany and Japan get very serious about their energy options. The implementation of solar and other renewables will far out-pace any new nuclear, and will 1) come down in price, 2) create many more good local jobs, 3) create a new economic industrial base, and 4) be environmentally, socially, and economically sustainable. The next major push will be in energy storage ( I strongly believe in hydrogen-fuel cells), and energy efficiency to moderate demand. That is the future, and I'm really disappointed in the lack of political leadership (controlled by big money...oil, nukes, banks, etc) to move America forward. Maybe some day people will pay their tribute to the "Vets" like me who are fighting for America's future.

PS It's interesting how the nuclear industry is trying to take on this strategy...build small nukes in a manufacturing plant, and then ship them out for deployment. Too bad that is not going to work!

Nuclear Updates

Monday updates on Fukushima have nothing new to report. The situation remains “very serious” at all three damaged reactors, and it will take months, if not years to achieve some state of stability and control. The main focus now is to try and keep everything cool to avoid reaching criticality. The spent fuel pools at the other two reactor sites appear to be stable, although the collapse of building #4 is of concern.

On the American nuclear front, more bad new for the industry. Aside from the industry line that the 104 reactors operating now are “perfectly safe,” the new generation of plants we would build would be even MORE perfectly safe. The shining new technology is the Westinghouse AP1000 reactor, designed over the last 30 years, and now under review by the NRC. (The French version, the Areva EPI reactor is having it’s problems in its construction in Finland and France…cost overruns, years of delay, etc.) A few years ago, it was back to the drawing for Westinghouse to revamp the containment structure against terrorist attacks.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110520/ap_on_re_us/us_nuclear_reactor_3

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/21/business/energy-environment/21nuke.html?_r=3&sq=Westinghouse%20ap1000&st=cse&scp=1&pagewanted=all

Now, with Fukushima, the NRC is under pressure to basically do what it is supposed to do…seriously look at and regulate the nuclear industry; and it seems they have found some very serious design flaws in the AP1000, based on faulty compilations in the computer modeling of the plant. Remember, we haven’t actually built and tested one of these new “perfectly safe” reactors…they are just computer models. The folks in Georgia will serve as guinea pigs for this design!

Thirty years of work on the design, and they still can’t get it right. What else have they missed? How much will the re-evaluations cost? Who will pay for that? The ratepayers in Georgia are already paying for their two reactors that aren’t even off the drawing boards! Is the Federal subsidy and loan guarantee going to cover the cost of this failure, or will the industry absorb the cost? Gee…any guesses on that one?

As Donald Rumsfeld once said, our biggest problem is the “unknown unknowns.”

More news leaking out about the future of spent fuel storage. As I have said before, there is no viable solution to this issue. The president’s “Blue Ribbon” panel will release its recommendations in July, but their conclusions are already leaking out.

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90777/90852/7387497.html

Deep geologic disposal is still considered to be the ultimate option, but we just can’t do it now. We don’t have the technology, the thermodynamic and geotech information and knowledge, nor the suitable geographic location to do this. Even though politicians and the industry say we should just stick it in the ground, scientifically we know we can’t just do that. This waste is radioactive, and thus thermodynamically hot for thousands of years! Maybe we will figure it out in the future, but not right now. So, the other two options are (1) to store the wastes in dry casks either on site or at one or two centralized locations; and our present technology should be good for about 100 years. The latest MIT study concurs with this. What will happen after 100 years, nobody knows; and it will be up to future generations to deal with it. Again, we’re talking about 75,000+ tons of this stuff, in thousands and thousands of canisters that will have to be constructed, loaded, transported. Stored and monitored. What cost? What transportation problems? Accidents? Environmental releases? Terrorist attacks? Floods, tornados….human stupidity?

The other option would be reprocessing; but that does nothing to solve the problem. It only exasperates the whole issue; but the industry has a way of trying to simplify issues and keep themselves knee deep in the problem, and play it up as the ONLY solution to the ONLY energy source we have for the future. Besides, we can’t afford reprocessing…period.

So life goes on. The weather is setting records…flooding, tornados, drought, wildfires…hurricane season is coming…I wonder what FEMA is thinking about these days. The insurance companies are starting to get worried. From a global insurance conference last year, “…if pricing of existing products can reflect the underlying risk, then climate change is an opportunity—if not, then it's a threat…” Raise those rates, boys…somebody has to pay!

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20100418/ISSUE01/304189974

As the World Turns

Science vs big money...with our children's future at stake

http://climateprogress.org/2011/05/12/national-academy-america%E2%80%99s-climate-choices/

I trust the work of our top scientists over the last thirty years over the big money misinformation being put out by Exxon, Koch bros, Fox News, etc.

If you really think the Republicans (and I'll include Democrats, because it is now the super rich vs the average American) are really interested in the future of America...you need to open your eyes and ears. If you think the problem is too much government spending and national debt...think again. We are not out of money...it is just that the super rich have a whole lot of it, and are not making it available to do what we need to do for education, infrastructure and public works, and investing in jobs and the future of America. It's "I've got mine, and I want more while I can get it!"

"Florida State University has accepted a $1.5 million grant from a foundation controlled by petrochemical billionaire Charles Koch on the condition that Koch’s operatives would have a free hand in selecting professors and approving publications." Control what is being taught...no creative free thinking...that's dangerous. This is even happening at our local community college.

"On Wednesday, ConocoPhillips CEO Jim Mulva outraged many on Capitol Hill when he released a statement calling it “un-American” to end subsidies to the Big 5 oil companies — ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips." It's ridiculous to believe that without subsidies the oil industry would just stop developing for the future. I ran a successful business for 30 years...without subsidies, and I worked hard to grow my business! If these guys are as smart as they think they are, they should work and earn their obnoxious salaries. Exxon is using its profits to buy back its own shares...before too long, they will own most of their own company via shell companies, investment funds, a few top execs, etc.

"Microsoft and Skype saved billions of dollars in taxes because Microsoft used its foreign profits to purchase Skype, which also happens to base its corporate headquarters in a major tax haven itself, Luxembourg." If there is a corporate tax problem, let's fix it! Nobody's really saying that.

"Republican nominee Jane Corwin, is also investing heavily in corporations that outsource U.S. jobs and has reaped massive dividends from these holdings." Get the money out while you can!

"One of Forbes 400 richest Americans — with a net worth last estimated at $1.4 billion — McCombs has gotten state Comptroller Susan Combs to agree to build a racing track in Austin at taxpayer expense. Austin’s city government may also invest an additional $4 million a year in tax revenue to facilitate the plan." That's what it's all about. Creating jobs!

Is Congress, or any of the 2012 candidates talking about/dealing with the real problems we face? Look at the debate on increasing revenues? Yes, we have to cut spending. Yes, there is waste and fraud. But saving someone who is making $1million, $10million...whatever 4% off their taxes is NOT going to give them incentive to invest in infrastructure, industry, things that create jobs. It's a no brainer...but the super-rich controlled media is playing this all up in a very skillful way that is brainwashing the public.

What's good for General Motors is no longer good for America! It's a whole new global world, and we need new rules.

Reflections at the Beginning of May

I’m back! It’s been three weeks since we left on our trip to Europe, and once again, I return home with new awareness and perspective on the US, the rest of the world, and or course, energy technology. We spent almost two weeks in Norway, one of the most affluent countries in the world. Every thing was clean, and efficient. We rented a French Peugeot 308 diesel, which got 65 miles to the gallon; diesel was a little over $11 a gallon…so a little more expensive than driving my Camry. Didn’t see a pothole in the 350km we drove, and the rail and bus systems were wonderful. Same was true in France and the Netherlands.

So, the nuclear accidents at Fukishima continue. Although the news coverage is nil, it seems some progress is being made in stabilizing the damaged reactors and the spent fuel pools. It will probably take many months or years before full cold shutdown is achieved, and then, in spite of Toshiba’s claims, it will take 50+ years before any decommissioning can even be done. And, of course, at what cost; and who pays?

http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Japan-Still-Struggling-to-Control-Crippled-Nuclear-Plant--119971524.html

Fukishima has forced the nuclear waste debate out into the open. We will see all kinds of ideas and “solutions”…the bottom line is there is NO solution to this problem. The “boys” at the honored nuclear institution of MIT have recommended we put all the spent fuel in casks and move them all to a central location and sit on them for 100 years. Brilliant! At what cost? Who pays? What happens after 100 years? Who pays then? How much will it cost then? New interest in Yucca Mountain, New Mexico, who knows where…deep geologic disposal is not a solution. Reprocessing? That hasn’t really come up yet, but the economics and technological feasibility of that will prove unrealistic. There was quite a bit on all this being reported in the British press, since their reprocessing program is in a shambles. There is also some renewed discussion of Low Level Waste disposal.

http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/37476/?p1=A1&a=f

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/tx/7541684.html

We dodged a bullet with the latest string of tornados…hope we continue to be lucky in the future with global climate change!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-18/u-s-nuclear-power-output-hits-lowest-in-4-years-after-tornado.html

While all this is going on, this country continues on the path of corporate greed and political corruption. With record profits in most private sectors, where is the investment in infrastructure and jobs? At least the French are looking down the road a bit.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/04/29/total-bids-1-4-billion-for-control-of-sunpower/

http://climateprogress.org/2011/05/01/report-big-oil-profit-executives/

Our politics are the laughing stock in Europe; and the Republicans continue to provide a humorous but tragic soap opera.

It’s good to be home!