Friday, October 18, 2024

PRE-ELECTION BLUES

 PRE-ELECTION BLUES

In keeping with the current trend of fake news, half-truths, misstatements, and actual lies, the nuclear industry has been aggressively pushing media coverage on several fronts for its struggle to survive.  Once again, it is claiming that the “new” nuclear plants will be safe, cheap, clean, and necessary for our survival.  The two main hurdles they gloss over are a) the 5, 10, 20+ year time it will take before these small modular reactors can be constructed and deployed to make any difference.  Not a single plant has been constructed, tested, and licensed to go into commercial operation.  They admit that it will be 8-10+ years before that benchmark is met. b) the actual cost well into the future for their construction, supply chain, fuel, and regulatory obstacles these hundreds of small modular reactors (SMRs) will need before we see any actual benefit.  Historically, the industry has an appalling track record living up to its rosy projections.

 The “old” technology Vogtle nuclear units came online this year, 18 years after they were proposed, and $25billion over budget.  They say the “new” technology will be different.  Don’t hold your breath, and keep an eye out on your pocketbook!  Two very recent announcements have startled the energy community.  Bill Gates, who is aggressively funding a small company building SMRs, has proposed restarting the old shutdown reactor at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania.  Microsoft would buy the electricity for its expanding data centers, although it is unclear how that would impact the public grid.  The utility says it will need to invest $1.6+billion to restart it, most of which will come from government “loans” and subsidies.  Interestingly, he seems to be hedging his $1billion investment in TerraPower, which is building a SMR prototype in Wyoming.  Either way, it is large amounts of money invested in projected power needed in the future.  The other startling news is that Google is doing just about the same thing, and Amazon’s investment in a SMR company that says they will have 5000MW online by 2039.  To do that, they would have to build about 60 of their small 80MW reactors, none of which has been built or even tested to date. Really?!!! Whether this all works out for them is a gamble that they can afford to take today, because they have a lot of money, and they risk putting up a small amount hoping that the public coffers will come up with the bulk of cash. This is the same old propaganda, hoping to keep the nuclear dreams alive because, in truth, renewables are cheaper today, and will more than out-compete nuclear in the future.  With an aggressive political will and investment today in renewables, in the manufacturing and deployment of just today’s technology, coupled with serious hydrogen storage, we can meet our future needs without nuclear’s long lead time, enormous expense, and other infrastructure problems. That momentum is now building. The same obstacles face the even “newer” nuclear FUSION.  Time, cost, infrastructure, fuel, etc., are/will be overwhelming, but the industry hopes to have the public continue to pick up the tab! Promises, promises!

The other unsolvable but un-talked-about issue is nuclear waste.  All nuclear technology produces radioactive nuclear waste which must be stored and safeguarded forever.  There is no other solution. Because of its radioactivity, it is not benign and continually emits radiation and heat.  No way around it! It eventually decays, but takes hundreds to thousands of years. It may be a small amount of our technological waste stream, but it is very dangerous and expensive to deal with. SMR and fusion will produce radioactive wastes which will be added to the stockpile, which is today costing us hundreds of millions of dollars a year just to sit on it and watch it.

 Meanwhile, renewables are continuing their exponential growth around the world, as well as here in the US.  600 GW of solar (600,000MW) was added in 2024 globally, and wind added 95GW.  Impressive, but a long way to go. The US currently has about 1200GW of generating capacity and added 33GW solar in 2023. The political obstacles continue as the mega-energy industry persists with its political clout to stifle renewables development.  A 1.8-megawatt (MW) school rooftop solar array, the largest in Virginia, is now online, powering the school during the day when it has the greatest demand.  In California, Gov. Newsom just vetoed a bill that would have made it easier for school districts to install rooftop solar. The reason, school districts already get a break in their electricity, and California has TOO MUCH solar that impacts the grid. The latest PG&E residential cost for electricity is $0.48/kwh off-peak, and $0.59/kwh during peak.  Just announced that a new rate hike will go into effect before Christmas.  And PG&E wants to accept a $1.5billion loan (which ratepayers will eventually pay back) to keep Diablo Canyon online for an additional 5 years.  That money instead could go a long way in building manufacturing facilities for hydrogen electrolyzers, fuel cells, microgrids, and more renewables to support them. 

 Hydrogen production and use is really starting to take off.  It obviously is in its early stages, but growth in technology and applications is expanding exponentially.  The daily reports coming out are rather mindboggling, although very little is picked up by the mainstream media.

 For example, A United States firm has made an ambitious plan to construct an $8 billion hydrogen-powered off-grid data center in Texas.  Microsoft has just embarked on an ambitious pilot project in Dublin, aiming to use green hydrogen to power one of its data centers, replacing traditional diesel-powered backup generators with eco-friendly hydrogen fuel cells. China built a plant for $71M, which will produce 1GW of hydrogen per year.  An exciting project that made it to page 9 on the SF Chronicle highlighted a micro-grid project in Calistoga to provide 8.5MW of backup power using hydrogen when the grid goes down, which is common in this wealthy wine-growing community that had major fires over the past few years.  PG&E is obviously aware of this potential, but still clings to the nuclear option for rate-payer dollars.

 A lot hinges on the upcoming election.  A Democratic win will propel us into the future, while Republicans, with their climate denial and fossil/nuclear agenda, will set us back years.  In a way, it may not all matter, because CLIMATE CHANGE is already having severe impacts far beyond polar bears stranded on ice floes, rising sea levels, hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, fires, and ice storms...it is the impacts that these increasingly more extreme events are having on our economic and social fabric both here and around the world.  Science has repeatedly warned us that the “changes” will continue to become more extreme.  Even if we were to do everything we need to do right now, there would be a lag time in slowing down the enormous environmental global changes.  Climate change will continue to create hardships for billions of people and dramatically change society and civilization in ways we cannot imagine.  In my years, I am proud that I have done what I could to fight ignorance and stupidity.  I am now content to sit back, play some music, visit with good friends, treasure our environment, and bask in the sun!

 Just a tiny sample of what’s going on:

 https://www.ci.calistoga.ca.us/home/showpublisheddocument/40745/638593306043230000

 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/artin-energy-secures-monumental-25-131600667.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 https://www.huffpost.com/entry/amazon-google-nuclear_n_670ff7e5e4b0b6831a117014?utm_source=pocket_shared

 https://www.huffpost.com/entry/climate-catastrophe-republicans_n_64bef47de4b0dcb4cab9ff9a

 https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16112023/fifth-national-climate-assessment-regional-impacts/