Monday, July 30, 2012

Climate Change


For what it’s worth….

Richard Muller, for many years a Koch brothers funded mouthpiece as a “reputable”, “honorable”, “real scientist” climate change denier, has turned traitor.  His new study at UC Berkeley, 25%funded by the Koch brothers show overwhelming data that human induced climate change is occurring.  Why the change??…I guess they didn’t offer him enough money????  Maybe he is a “real” scientist and has finally analyzed his own data and that of the other 97% climate scientists, and has some moral principles to boot!





It’s been quite a year so far………………

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Unstated costs of Nuclear Power


While most concern is about the high cost of constructing new nuclear power plants, the real dilemma is in the “hidden” costs of the back end…the  waste/decommissioning issues.
The industry has always and still falsely asserted that nuclear power is the cheapest way to generate electricity.  This premise is based on a real slight of hand in hiding and not accounting for the “true” and real costs associated with the kwhs produced AFTER the plant has run its life.
We are still being told that nukes produce electricity at 1.5 to 3 cents/kwh.  This may be true, and is referred to as O&M (operating and maintenance) costs.  This usually includes fuel costs, and the day to day running of the plant.  It DOES NOT include capital investment, financing, major retrofits, decommissioning, and waste management.  If we apply the SAME cost analysis, solar O&M costs are less than 1 cent/kwh…the fuel is free, and operating cost are really negligible.  In many cases, the capital investment in solar is cheaper than today’s nuclear, and those costs are coming down.
The high “cost” of solar is due to our bookkeeping methodology, which discriminates against solar because the sun only shine for about a third of the time versus a power plant that runs full time.  There is no differentiation on the value of the electricity.  (More on this later.)

Meanwhile, here is an interesting piece from today’s news. 
The La Crosse reactor was a small 50MW nuke, similar to the Humboldt Bay nuke, that was shut down in 1987.  The spent fuel has been stored in a wet pool for 25 years.  At Humboldt Bay, the cost of maintaining the pool when it was operative was about $1 million/yr.  The estimated cost of putting the La Crosse fuel into dry storage is $45m.  So, we have about $70m in waste management that did NOT appear on the customer’s energy bill.  Somebody is paying for that now…and the final bill is not in.  Security at Humboldt Bay today is around $12m/yr for the 5 dry casks, and this waste may stay on site for the next 20…50…??? years.   And we don’t know how/if/where/how much this spent fuel will be dealt with in the future.  Like Humboldt Bay, the decommissioned Trojan plant is costing the Northwest ratepayers some $10-15m/yr…an unidentified “tax” on their monthly bill, that will probably never go away…paying for the “cheap” electricity generated back in the late ‘70’s and early ‘80’s.
The NRC just approved Indian Point’s conversion to dry cask storage.
Interesting issue here is that the fuel will be placed in a transfer cask, transported out of the fuel building, and then re-transferred into the permanent cask.  This has to be done underwater because of shielding requirements, and involves multiple handling of the fuel…very expensive, but probably cheaper than installing a larger crane in the old radioactive building.  No cost estimate on this procedure has been given; BUT, it will be paid for by the consumers, some of whom may have benefited from the “cheap” nuclear electricity generated by that fuel in the past. 
All this is happening/going to happen at all of the 105 nuclear plants we have in the US.  Expensive?  Who pays?  Cheap, cost effective electricity?  And then of course, what will the cost of final disposition of all the spent fuel be…Yucca Mountain cost $14 billion before it was abandoned, and the estimate in 2002 was over $100 billion to deal with this stuff in the future.  I’m sure that cost has not come down as rapidly as the cost of Chinese solar.
So, we’re being hornswaggled…from the front and rear!  We most likely won’t be building anymore new nukes, so we just need to keep bending over! 
Fiscal conservatism…cost effectiveness…big money business at its finest.


Sunday, July 8, 2012

Comparing Costs of Solar and Nuclear


In a recent Forbes article, the most glaring parameter is that the sun doesn’t always shine…a standard availability being 20-30%.  So, if you compare that solar production strictly against a base-load generator with a 70-80% capacity, you come up with a very big negative for solar, as well as other renewable. 


What is missing in this cost analysis is the “true” value of the electricity…other than just a  price per KWH.  Solar is peak demand KWHs…especially valuable and most probably more than cost effective and competitive on hot summer days when air-conditioning demand is at its highest.  There is usually no distinction between cost/kwh during the day and night when demand is low, and when a lot of costly generators are turned off.  As with so many aspects of the environment/climate change, the “true” costs and implications are marginalized.

Another strike against solar PV is the life expectancy of the panels itself.  For many years, a 20 year life was used…I guess today it is 25 years.  The argument was/is that there is not enough actual use history to extend that timeframe, even though those panels may work for 50, 60, ?? years.  A nuclear power plant has a license for 40 years, and most industrial facilities have a 30-40 year life expectancy.  So, if you depreciate, spread cost out over that life-expectancy timeframe, whatever economic  gimmick you use, etc...solar is at a big disadvantage.


One last point I usually make in my arguments is that the real cost of nuclear decommissioning and radioactive waste disposal is extremely understated.  Here at the Humboldt Bay Reactor which we are decommissioning, the cost is in excess of $0.12/kwh for the electricity it produced in its 14 year run.  The cost of dry storage of the fuel is about $12 million /yr until 2020…and after that, who knows what.

I know this is all so complex, and I am not an economist, but for all these years I have felt slighted by the “powers that be” in all my activism for sustainable, renewable energy. 

Monday, July 2, 2012

Happy 4th of July, America!


A few current news trends as we celebrate the birthday of the great American dream.


Gee, we could have used the Solyndra money to help pay for this!  Tsk, tsk.


You’ve got to put it somewhere…SC is probably as good a place as any!  Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, Wisconsin???????


Nuclear subsidies?  The world over!  “The total amount of public money injected into Japan’s TEPCO is now at 2.5 trillion yen ($30.7 billion).”  Here in the US, we could have probably built one and a half new reactors for that amount.

Today, California is expected to hit a summer peak demand of  about 35,000MW, with available resources of 45,000MW…that gives about a 25% reserve…not bad.  All this without the 2200MW from the shut down San Onofre nukes.


As Japan begins to come to its senses and initiates investments into renewables, the demand for PV, wind, and other technologies will increase.  Too bad the US has abandoned its renewables industries…most of the product demand and jobs will go to China and Germany.  Another lost opportunity due to short-sightedness!



As the world deals with extreme weather, we continue to  spend our “intelligent” efforts dealing with gay marriage, immigration, minimizing healthcare for the poor, and further enriching the rich with more riches.

This is just the beginning…will it get better?  Or worse?  Do you believe the scientists, or the fossil fuel industry lackeys?  Time will tell…eventually the economic damage will reach such proportions that even the real fiscal conservatives will have their eyes and ears opened…as well as their pocketbooks.

Happy 4th of July, America!  The best democracy money can buy.